The projected cost of the Denver-to-Longmont, or Northwest, rail line–one of six approved by Denver-area voters in 2004–has risen from the 2004 estimate of $462 million to $1.4 billion. For all that money, RTD won’t even get to own the rail line, but will merely rent it from BNSF. Moveover, most of the route from Denver to Boulder and Longmont will parallel a much-less-expensive bus-rapid transit route from Denver to Boulder.
The original cost projection for this corridor, made back in 2001, was just $211 million, an estimate published in a document called the Major Investment Study. This is the only study that seriously looked at alternatives other than rail transit (though it didn’t look at many alternatives), and a cost of $211 million may have seemed reasonable compared to, say, building new highway lanes.
According to this document, by 2004 the estimate had risen to $565 million (in 2002 dollars). (My copy of RTD’s 2004 financial plan says $594 million.) By 2007 the cost had risen once again by $120 million, and by 2008 it had reached $707 million.
Last May, RTD published a 2010 FasTracks Report saying the cost had grown to $895 million. However, this is “year-of-expenditure” (YOE) dollars, not adjusted for inflation to some fixed year. My 2004 financial plan says the $594 million in 2002 dollars is $791 million YOE dollars.
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The latest report is that the real cost is going to be $1.4 billion. However, not only is this in year-of-expenditure dollars, it includes operating costs for some undisclosed number of years. So really we are probably still talking $1.1 billion for capital costs.
Based on the 2008 estimate, RTD calculated that this particular rail line would end up costing more than $60 per ride, an increase from just $16 based on the 2004 cost estimate. The cost per ride today must be close to $100.
It seems ridiculous to spend this much money building a rail line that will effectively parallel, over most of its route, a bus-rapid transit route that is faster, more frequent, more flexible, and far less expensive. But rail transit is not about transportation; it is about being a World-Class City. Boulder considers itself a World-Class City, and it is not going to settle for a bus line when second- and third-tier suburbs like Northglenn and Wheat Ridge get their own rail lines. The RTD FasTracks plan depended on support from the leaders of all the major cities in the area, and so Boulder was able to demand this route no matter what the cost.
Curiously, RTD has little reason to care how much each line costs. The 2004 election effective gave RTD license to spend as much as it takes for as long as it takes to build six rail lines no matter how worthless each line happens to be. Thus, whether the Boulder-Longmont line costs $200 million or $2 billion is irrelevant. In fact, to some degree, the more expensive the better because it means RTD gets to hand out more contracts over a longer period of time.
RTD has even considered building the Northwest line but running only four round trips a day on it in order to save money on operating costs. This would push the cost per rider into the hundreds of dollars. But so what? This isn’t about transportation. It is about ego, social engineering, and handing out fat contracts to companies that make campaign contributions.
If Denver wanted to be a World class city, why did they reject the Olympics. In 1973 Denver became the only city to reject the Olympics after objections from Colorado taxpayers over rising costs and environmental impact. It’s nice to know they once cared about the burden they place on the taxpayers………..back then.
The Antiplanner wrote:
RTD has even considered building the Northwest line but running only four round trips a day on it in order to save money on operating costs. This would push the cost per rider into the hundreds of dollars.
Four trains per day? Then why bother at all?
But so what? This isn’t about transportation. It is about ego, social engineering, and handing out fat contracts to companies that make campaign contributions.
How much social engineering can be done with four trains? In my opinion, not much!
Though it’s clearly possible to spend a lot of money to provide the infrastructure for those four trains per day.
It’s nice to know they once cared about the burden they place on the taxpayers………..back then.
“They” being the taxpayers voting yes on the ballot measures on funding to build the lines.
DS
Dan wrote:
“They†being the taxpayers voting yes on the ballot measures on funding to build the lines.
But did “They” give the RTD a blank check to build rail lines?
Usually such voter-approved projects have a specified maximum amount of money that can be spent (or borrowed).
Perhaps I’m missing something here, but why not run express buses down I-25 from Longmont directly to downtown Denver, and run a separate service from Longmont to Boulder Transit Village, with the stop at Gunbarrel, to connect to the Denver/Boulder BRT? I’m pretty sure this could be done for far less than $60/trip (forget about 100).
Perhaps I’m missing something here, but why not run express buses down I-25 from Longmont directly to downtown Denver, and run a separate service from Longmont to Boulder Transit Village, with the stop at Gunbarrel, to connect to the Denver/Boulder BRT?
Because BRT isn’t as fancy as light rail, and doesn’t make Denver into a World Class City.
“They†being the taxpayers voting yes on the ballot measures on funding to build the lines.
Classic misleading planner talk. As long as voters say yes, by even the most infinitesimal margin, then planners decide they have a “mandate” to do whatever the heck they like, regardless of the language found in the original measure. Kind of how Portland’s METRO started out as a trash service, and now runs half the state with an iron fist. Gotta to run to METRO to ask for permission to flush!
But did “They†give the RTD a blank check to build rail lines?
No, but ‘they’ have voted more than once to raise more money. This is not to endorse cost overruns, typical low projections, or standard price increases. Speaking of money, I see that DEN got cheap and drove away Calatrava and his very nice bridge that would have been a perfect gateway to the airport (altho his terminal would have blocked the tents).
DS
I’m confused Dan. The voters have not said yes to spending more money on Fastraks. More so, one could make a fair argument that they haven’t gone back to the voters since then for more money because their polling shows it’s likely the voters will shoot it down. What did you have in mind when you said they voted more than once to raise more money? Transit funding votes before Fastracks in 2004?
Dan , what’s the break down for these expenses?
You’re right, prk – Front Rangers have only voted on it once.
DS
It is kind of like the European Union. Once a country holds a referendum on the EU (and most did not), then the politicians say they have a mandate to do anything without another vote.
Socialist. Huh. Huh huh. Huhhuhhuh. HuhhuhhuhHuhhuhhuhHuhhuhhuhHuhhuhhuhHuhhuhhuh.
DS
Actually European parties other than the socialists didn’t allow votes on the EU treaty. Do I need to provide citations or can people look up Wikipedia articles themselves?
C. P. Zilliacus said:
The Autoplanner wrote:
RTD has even considered building the Northwest line but running only four round trips a day on it in order to save money on operating costs. This would push the cost per rider into the hundreds of dollars.
Four trains per day? Then why bother at all?
THWM: It’s better than noting.
CPZ; But so what? This isn’t about transportation. It is about ego, social engineering, and handing out fat contracts to companies that make campaign contributions.
How much social engineering can be done with four trains? In my opinion, not much!
THWM: Highways are social engineering for that matter.
Ahhh… thanks. I now I rant and rave and froth at the mouth but I really do want to be open for misreading things or just not knowing things. Hope winter back there is being it’s usual mild self.