The 2014 New Starts Recommendations

A few weeks ago, the Antiplanner took a quick look at the Federal Transit Administration’s 2013 New Starts program. Now the agency has released its 2014 New Starts Report, which includes eight new projects.

Four of the eight projects are bus-rapid transit, which can mean anything from running buses on existing streets to building expensive new busways. A proposed BRT in El Paso appears to be closer to the former as it is projected to cost $43 million for a 17-mile route, or less than $3 million per mile. At the other extreme, a BRT in Lansing is projected to cost $215 million for an 8.5-mile route, or more than $25 million per mile. This is undoubtedly a huge waste.

Two of the remaining four projects are extensions to existing light-rail lines. Denver proposes to spend $211 million building a 2.3-mile extension of one of its light-rail lines. At $92 million per mile, this is less than the national average for light rail, but still outrageously expensive, especially considering Denver built its first couple of light-rail lines for less than $30 million per mile.

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Ft. Worth wants to spend $959 million on a 38-mile commuter-rail line. Considering that the existing Dallas-Ft. Worth commuter-rail line is a huge failure, carrying only about 8,400 trips per weekday, it is hard to see how Ft. Worth and the FTA can predict that a new line will attract more than 18,000 weekday riders with a straight face.

Finally, Tempe, Arizona wants to spend nearly $130 million on a 2.7-mile streetcar that is predicted to carry just 550 roundtrips per weekday. This is the first of many streetcar proposals that will be submitted by cities all over the country that want streetcars no matter how slow and expensive they may be.

The Antiplanner hopes to take a closer look at some of these plans over the next few weeks. Who knows; one of them, such as the El Paso BRT, might even be worthwhile–but don’t count on it.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

10 Responses to The 2014 New Starts Recommendations

  1. LazyReader says:

    How about some “fun” facts?
    1 billion seconds ago, it was Aug 15, 1981.
    1 billion minutes ago, it was 111 A.D.
    1 billion hours ago, it was 112,000 B.C.
    1 billion dollars ago, it was just 2 hours and 19 minutes ago.
    Weight of a $100 bill is roughly 1 gram.
    Weight of $1,000 in $100’s is 1/3 of an ounce.
    Weight of $1,000,000 in $100’s is 22 pounds.
    Weight of $1 billion in $100’s is 1.1 TONS.
    Yes, the federal government goes through a ton of money every 2 hours.

  2. bennett says:

    How much would it weigh in silver dollars?

  3. LazyReader says:

    We don’t mint silver dollars currently other than real American Eagle Silver dollar coins. But a US dollar coin today styled with Presidential portrait weighs 8.1 grams. A billion dollars worth of dollar coins would weigh 8,930 tons (American short tons = 2,000 lbs.) about the same weight as an Arleigh Burke destroyer. The Silver Eagle Dollar weighs 31.103 grams (1 troy ounce) and is 99.9% pure silver. A billion coins would weigh over 34,291 tons or the weight of the battleship USS Maryland.

  4. LazyReader says:

    Actually I was mistaken, In the 2012 federal budget our government spent about 10 billion dollars a day. That’s about 425 million dollars an hour, the equivalent of spending a stack of hundreds 1,524 feet high, talk about making it rain.

  5. Dave Brough says:

    In addition to taking a closer look at those no-matter-what streetcar plans, perhaps the Antiplanner could also take a look at the only viable alternative: Dual-Mode. Combining the existing car and truck (preferably DL) with elevated guideway eliminates congestion, greatly in creases get-there time, dramatically reduces accidents, and returns the earth’s surface to the people. Best of all, eliminates transit of any kind. Wait. Best of all, it can be done for a merely $10M/mile.
    Why does the AP continue to ignore such a reality?

  6. LazyReader says:

    No it isn’t. If you’re gonna build elevated guideways for vehicles the size of cars those guideways are gonna have to go virtually everywhere. From what we’ve learned, dedicated transit on fixed guideways is obsolete.

    The New Urbanists claim they wanna make communities for walking, noble but misguided. As trends have shown, these communities exist for the affluent and surprisingly show nearly as much car use as their suburban counterparts. You can Google Earth one such community, Kentlands, Maryland. There are parking lots, multi story parking structures. big box stores. The only difference is slightly more detailed architecture and landscaping to hide the unattractive features like the parking lots. Their walking, jogging and biking observed is just an example of the affluent who have more free time on their hands because of their higher incomes. It’s a paradox of it’s own well design. The people that live there don’t work there so they drive to work and the people that work there cant afford to live there so they drive to the new urban village to work.

  7. C. P. Zilliacus says:

    Counties, municipalities, states and regions that are serious about BRT should in many cases consider the use of pricing to provide free-flow lanes for the buses to use (and drivers of other vehicles to pay to use them).

    I am not going to make the claim that priced lanes can be built for “free” (in terms of taxpayer dollars), though that may be possible in some cases. Priced lanes do provide a fast drive to any motorist willing to pay a toll, and allow a fast transit ride for bus patron.

    Such lanes have been built in enough places in North America that I am not going to enumerate them here (but if someone needs examples, I will be glad to provide).

  8. msetty says:

    CPZ might be right…turning over some arterial lanes to buses and paying auto users, particularly in high demand corridors not near expressways, might be a good compromise between motorheads and transitheads.

    Also consider HOT lane/BRT only overpasses and underpasses at busy intersections to eliminate conflicts and long waits at traffic signals. With such bypasses, while expensive, such lanes wouldn’t have quite the capacity of a freeway lane, but should be at least twice a regular arterial lane that loses 40%-50% of its capacity at signaled intersections.

    Of course, the same idea would work just as well with streetcar/LRT lanes with bypass lanes at stops, assuming you have enough potential volume to justify the extra costs of tracks and overhead wires.

  9. Dave Brough says:

    Lazy, you said ” If you’re gonna build elevated guideways for vehicles the size of cars those guideways are gonna have to go virtually everywhere. From what we’ve learned, dedicated transit on fixed guideways is obsolete.”

    You’re confusing Dual-Mode with PRT. Dual-Mode does go ‘virtually everywhere’ – roads and guideway – while PRT is guideway-only. Having to plant elevated guideways ‘everywhere’ and then populate it with thousands of pods is prohibitively expensive and the Achilles heel of PRT.
    But DM just duplicates what we already have – residential street running to arterial road, running to expressway – in this case, the DL taking us the few miles along the residential street and arterial road to the guideway co-located with the expressway. The vehicle seamlessly transfers to guideway in the same way an existing vehicle transfers to the expressway, it travels to the exit closest to destination where it offs and DL’s to destination. You get out, It either parks itself or goes into revenue service. Call me a cab.
    Another thing: DM can eliminate a high percentage of the delivery vehicles that add to congestion, particularly in urban areas.
    Anything wrong with that?

  10. prk166 says:

    Dual mode won’t eliminate delivery vehicles nor congestion any more than eating refried beans will eliminate farting.

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