Young people have been told so often that they are especially virtuous for living in inner cities and riding transit instead of driving that they have developed a serious epidemic of smugness. For example, one writes that “my generation is car-sharing, using transit, walking, biking and generally using any number of forms of transportation that are far more energy-efficient and less carbon-dependent. We support high-speed rail, view climate change as a real threat and are eschewing suburban sprawl that has consumed precious land and energy.”
There are lots of things wrong with these claims, but the biggest is the idea that young people today are somehow different. In reality, every demographic group is growing faster in the suburbs than the cities. Reports of rapid inner city growth are often based on very tiny numbers: a couple of decades ago, hardly anyone lived in downtown, thanks mainly to urban planners who used federal urban renewal money to clear minorities, single men, and others out of downtown areas. When you start at near zero, any growth at all will be a large percentage, but it doesn’t indicate a major trend.
It is true that young people are driving less, but that isn’t necessarily because they have higher environmental consciences. As commuting expert Alan Pisarski noted in a presentation given last year, much of the decline in driving “is a product of the present pathetic economy.”
Now US DOT researcher Don Pickrell has documented this in more detail. “Declines in driving exactly mirror job losses among men,” he said in a presentation given two weeks ago (1.6-MB PowerPoint show; click here to download a 1.4-MB PDF version of the presentation).
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He noted that people aren’t substituting transit, walking, or cycling for driving. Growth in these modes accounts for only about 2 percent of the decline in driving. The growth in telecommuting accounts for less than 1 percent of workers since 1970. Not only are large numbers of people not moving downtown, he observes, but jobs are continuing to disperse to the suburbs and exurbs.
THe real test will come if and when the economy recovers. Pickrell suggests that, even then, “congestion is unlikely to grow dramatically, except in selected areas.”
One thing that is almost completely unpredictable is the effect of self-driving cars on driving and living habits. Transit commuters seem to tolerate trips that require nearly twice as much time as auto commuters, possibly because they don’t have to drive and so can read or do something else during the trip. If auto users don’t have to drive themselves, they may suddenly be willing to travel twice as far to work. This will lead to more dispersion as well as more miles of driving.
Self-driving cars are likely to lead to large increases in driving for other reasons as well. For one, if anyone can operate a car, and not just those who are 16 years old and have a driver’s license, then more people will make more trips than they make today. Not only will 9-year-old children be taking the family self-driving car to soccer practice, but some people might send their pets to the vet or pet daycare centers in self-driving cars. Cars will also run around empty, either searching for parking spaces or heading to the shop to get routine maintenance and repairs.
For these and many other reasons, anyone who suggests that highways and autos are going to be less important in the future is deluding themselves. No doubt every generation has to believe that they are the crown of creation. But anyone basing policy proposals on these beliefs is going to make serious errors.
When I saw the headline, I thought this article was going to be about our smug planner trolls who live in the suburbs, drive Jeep Wranglers in the mountains, live in large houses on large lots while maintaining that urban density is the superior life mode.
Unemployment, a sustainable career.
“my generation is car-sharing, using transit, walking, biking and generally using any number of forms of transportation that are far more energy-efficient and less carbon-dependent. We support high-speed rail, view climate change as a real threat and are eschewing suburban sprawl that has consumed precious land and energy.”
Gotta love the hubris of the self-appointed spokesman of a generation. But how can he square his concern for climate change with his support for high-speed rail?
BTW, love the South Park reference.
False:
while maintaining that urban density is the superior life mode.
What’s in it for them to spread blatant falsehoods? Cranky and need poopy?
DS
My theory: a group of kids that went to college between 2004-2010 have diminished expectations. They are content to live in little urban enclaves and bike and work part-time and struggle with student loans.
They occupied Wall Street but did not change the student loan rules.
Of course-that is just one part of the demographic. I am friends with a young bike shop owner who loves biking, hates bad density, and plans to get a car now that he is growing up and his business is expanding.
There is a range of opinions out there. Some are delusional, and over-represented.
“What’s in it for them to spread blatant falsehoods? Cranky and need poopy?”
Not when I wrote that comment. But now that you mention it, I do need to defecate. While doing so, I’ll think of you and all the excrement you’ve flung here. And I’ll look at a picture of you. 😡
I hate to bust the smugness bubble of hybrid drivers and cycling commuters, but the carbon emissions all of you save is not 1/10th of the rounding error of what Asia will increase in carbon emissions.
To: “Frank” who wrote – “When I saw the headline, I thought this article was going to be about our smug planner trolls who live in the suburbs, drive Jeep Wranglers in the mountains, live in large houses on large lots while maintaining that urban density is the superior life mode.”
Tom9 responds: Your comment on Jeeps caught my eye so I logged in – In Anti-Growth Placer County, California (extending from the Sacramento Suburbs to the shores of Lake Tahoe), the County uses the Jeep LIBERTY as its official government vehicle ! I have no doubt that what you say could be the case for many Placer County officials. The difference is, they actually drive Jeeps to work (well, perhaps, only if they are allowed to drive them home).
As for suburban growth, these officials don’t give enough money to Auburn, CA, which is practically the end of the Sacremento metro area, and also the nicest Sacramento suburb, right next to the state recreation area along the American River. In Auburn, you’ll find horribly unmitigated traffic congestion on the Auburn – Grass Valley highway (hwy 49). I have a copy of the Auburn-Bowman general plan, and outside of the Auburn city limits, allowed densities are too low, preventing the development of nice, master planned communities in the scenic Sierra Foothills. Compare this to Truckee, California, in pro-growth Nevada County in California on I-80 (one hour away at 6,000 feet) where the City has allowed several very nice master planned communities on a variety of lot sizes.
Both Auburn and Lincoln are expanding quickly. Sadly, these Placer County planners in their white Jeep liberties, give more attention to Lincoln, while Auburn suffers with horrible traffic, air pollution, and no sidewalks along hwy-49. Mountain bike shop salesmen complain of inadequate bicycle infrastructure in Auburn, whereas in Lincoln, there are bike lanes on wide streets.
Residents complain that Placer County will not maintain the roads in “semi-rural” areas of the county, such as Auburn, Colfax, and around the shores of Lake Tahoe that remain unincorporated. They make it very difficult for folks to get permits on these areas, in conjunction with the Tahoe Regional Planning Association (TRPA).
However, Placer County officials are spending huge amounts of money in the Lincoln, CA near Sacramento, on very wide streets, including the new Lincoln bypass – extending north – in the middle of nowhere – to Marysville, CA.
They’re also investing 75 million in an unnecessary Auburn to Lincoln sewer pipeline. If you drive through conservative to moderate Auburn, CA, you see large billboards opposing the sewer project, and opposing Placer County Officials for not respecting private property rights. And, it’s worth noting the Jeep Liberty and Jeep Cherokee gas tank fire hazard recall story – WSJ – http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324063304578525382524035100.html
Nevertheless, all of these cities – which you can see over just 70 miles on I-80 – are some of the nicest areas of California, and given the scenery, it’s too bad that Placer County officials do not allow more growth in the Sierra foothills.
Finally, Randal, have you ever rode in the Lake Tahoe to Auburn, CA bicycle race on the Wendell Robie Western States Trail (it takes place sometime this month)?
No mention at all of one reason why young people leave core jurisdictions when they start families – public schools – in most cases, big city schools are terrible (in spite of efforts to reform them in some places), and suburban schools are better and sometimes excellent.
Some big city politicians understand this, others think that forcing residents to live in apartments and take transit will solve all problems. Perhaps not including housing affordability. Wonder how many New York City public school teachers live in New York County (mostly the island of Manhattan)?
Like most of this age group, his knowledge of history barely goes back “pre-Obama”.
“…my generation is car-sharing, using transit, walking, biking and generally using any number of forms of transportation that are far more energy-efficient and less carbon-dependent…”
If he was living in a city 60-70 years ago, many, many more people walked, car-pooled, took buses, etc than they do now. They lived near the factories and walked to work. It was not glamorous, it was crowded and dirty. Maybe that’s why things changed and businesses and people moved out to suburbs and got a better life.
By the way, most urban renewal of today is all government funding–trying to resucitate cities. While most suburban building is private funding, people making choices.
While most suburban building is private funding, people making choices.
Sure, take out the government-built roads, sewer, water, HMID, and single-use zoning, and people have all kinds of choices.
DS
Dan:
Government roads from cities to suburbs are two way roads that also should aid cities.
Many roads, water lines, sewers are put in by developers in suburbs as part of the approval process. Sewers are charged to the homeowners if “government” puts them in. Please don’t act like “government” gives us things–we pay taxes and then government (ineffectually) uses our money and politicians take credit for giving you something.
I agree with you about zoning restrictions–but that is more emblmatic of too much government power and intrusion, not less.