Not Much of a Comeback

CNN breathlessly reports that, in a “surprising comeback” over the past 10 to 15 years, “passenger rail has seen a resurgence in ridership.” The article is accompanied by 14 beautiful photographs of passenger trains, nearly all either tourist trains or trains in other countries and none of Amtrak, the near-monopoly provider of intercity passenger rail in the country (rectified with the photo below).

In September, 2010, Amtrak’s Empire Builder crosses Two Medicine Bridge near Glacier National Park in Montana. Photo by the Antiplanner; click image for a larger view.

Among the few hard facts contained in the CNN article is that, in its 2013 fiscal year, Amtrak carried a record number of passengers, nearly 31.6 million. Let’s see what that really means.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports that, in 2012–the last year for which complete data are available–intercity rail carried 6.8 billion passenger miles (also the number reported by Amtrak for both fiscal 2012 and 2013). While that is a record since Amtrak began in 1971, it is also just 0.12 percent of all passenger travel in the country.*

While 0.12 percent is 17 percent more than Amtrak’s share of travel a decade before (2002), it is 17 percent less than Amtrak’s share of travel two decades ago (1992). CNN adds that Amtrak carried 51 percent more riders in 2013 than in 2001; while I don’t have 2001 ridership numbers, passenger miles grew by less than 25 percent during that time period, so if riders grew by 51 percent they must have taken a lot of short trips.
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Though something close to 25 percent growth in 12 years may sound good, the comeback fades when passenger miles are measured per capita. In 2012, the average American rode Amtrak a whopping 21.7 miles (compared with more than 15,000 by auto and 1,850 by air). Per capita miles have hovered around 21 miles since Amtrak began. In 2002, it was 21.4 miles (and more than 22 in 2001 and 2003) while in 1992 it was 23.9 miles (and more than 24 in 1991 and 1993).

If there is any pattern, it is that Amtrak numbers rise when gas prices increase and fall when they decrease (with what appears to be a lag of three or four years as people adjust their travel habits to changes in fuel prices). If so, then the recent increase in ridership isn’t surprising at all. Moreover, Amtrak may be in for a fall if oil prices remain low as they have been for the past year or so.

* To calculate Amtrak’s share of total passenger travel, I’ve adjusted the numbers used for automobile travel by the Department of Transportation. In 2008, DOT calculated passenger miles by assuming an average of 1.58 people per car and 1.73 people per light truck. In 2009, it revised these numbers downward to 1.39 people per “short wheelbase light vehicles” and 1.34 for “long wheelbase light vehicles.”

At the time, I contacted the DOT to ask the reason for the change, and they replied that it was due to the findings of the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. When I pointed out that table 16 in the summary of that survey reported that average occupancy rates had increased, they replied that the survey reported average occupancies weighted by numbers of trips, while the average when weighted by miles was different. When I pointed out that the occupancies when weighted by miles were greater than when weighted by trips, they said their own calculations were different. When I asked for their calculations, they refused to provide them saying they were “not yet published.”

Given the change in methodologies, we can make the data consistent by revising the numbers for 2009 and later or by revising the numbers for all years before 2009. Since I suspect the higher occupancies are more realistic, I changed the numbers for 2009 and later using 1.58 for short wheelbase vehicles and 1.72 for long wheelbase vehicles.

If we instead accepted the new numbers and changed all of the numbers before 2009, then Amtrak would have carried 0.14 percent of passenger travel in 2012, up from 1.2 percent. Amtrak’s share for all the other years would rise as well, so the changes from decade to decade would remain about the same.