A few weeks ago, pundits were predicting dire consequences if the government shut down. As near as I can tell, except for the National Park Service acting more thuggish than usual, nothing really happened. People are still getting their social security checks. American soldiers are still getting killed in Afghanistan. Some government web sites have annoyingly shut down, as if it costs more to run a web site that provides information than it does to operate a site that only says it will refuse to provide that information.

national debt
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This debt clock seems to be off, as the current debt ceiling is just under $16.7 trillion. But it shows how fast Congress is spending money.

Now the predictions about what will happen if Congress refuses to increase the debt ceiling are even more dire. I don’t really buy that either. Investors know that this is just a political spat; if they believe that the United States can support more than $16.7 trillion worth of debt, they’ll believe it just as much a few weeks from now as today.

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In Triumph of the City, Harvard urban economist Edward Glaeser argued that dense cities were still important even in the age of telecommuting and the Internet because of the importance of face-to-face contacts. For this reason, while Glaeser didn’t support subsidies for density, he still expected to see dense cities well into the future.

The Antiplanner disagreed. “Thanks to the automobile, we can have such face-to-face contact with far more people, and a greater diversity of people, than those who are within walking distance of a Manhattan high rise. Thanks to the Internet, we can dispense with face-to-face contacts when doing such routine things as shopping and many types of work. In other words, the economic forces that built dense cities such as London and New York are far weaker today.”

In this light, it was interesting to read yesterday’s report in the Wall Street Journal that New York banks are moving many employees well out of Manhattan (if this link doesn’t work, Google “New York Banks Cut and Run”). After the financial crisis, the city’s ten largest banks reduced their Manhattan rental space from 38 million to 32 million square feet. Property owners hoped that they would pick up that space as the economy recovered, but instead they are moving people to lower-cost areas such as Florida.

“The new reality is that you do most of your work by phone,” says an employee of Deutsche Bank who works in Jacksonville (if this link doesn’t work, search for “Deutsche Bankers Warm Up to Florida”). “Why can’t we do that in a location with a better cost of living?”

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Matthew Yglesias observes that, because of the government shutdown, farmers don’t know how much pigs are worth. The USDA normally keeps track of and publishes pork prices. Yglesias concludes that the government shutdown is threatening our farm economy.

The correctly conclusion, however, is that we should let the unreliable government do things that can be done by private parties. If USDA weren’t publishing pork prices, someone else would, and they would not have to rely on a continued flow of tax dollars to keep them going.
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Despite the government shutdown, the Antiplanner managed to safely get to Bakersfield, California yesterday to give a presentation on why high-speed rail won’t relieve congestion and what we should do instead. Interested people can download a 14.6-MB PDF of this presentation with notes summarizing my narration. Although the original presentation included videos of driverless cars, I didn’t include them in the PDF, but you can download them in this 10-MB zip file.

The Motoring Enthusiasts Party elected its first senator this week. That’s the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party, and they elected Ricky Muir to the Australian Senate representing Victoria. To earn that seat, Muir attracted a total of 11,390 votes, or 0.5 percent of voters.

How does someone become a senator with just 0.5 percent of the vote? This is partly a result of Australia’s preferential voting, which allows voters to enter their first, second, third, and more preferences. This leads to instant run-offs: if no one gets 50 percent of first-preference votes, then the second-preferences are counted from voters whose first-preference candidates did not come in first or second.

That alone would not be enough to elect someone with 0.5 percent of first-preference votes. But the Australian Senate decided to set aside six seats for micro parties. Other micro parties that elected senators this election included Palmer United; Australian Sports, whose goal is to get every Australian involved in sport and recreation; and Family First.

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Today happens to be the Antiplanner’s birthday, and I’ve always appreciated Congress for changing the first day of the fiscal year to my birthday back in 1977. This year, Congress appears poised to give me an extra-special present: a smaller government, even if only temporarily.

If the federal government shuts down, transportation and land-use will be among the major bones of contention in the debate. In August, Republicans worked hard to successfully prevent the Senate from passing the Democrat’s $54 billion transportation and housing budget (S. 1243). This bill would have spent at least $10 billion more than Republicans think is responsible, partly by funding a number of smart-growth programs.

One of those programs is called the “Choice Neighborhoods Initiative,” which provides $250 million for turning low-income neighborhoods into “sustainable mixed income neighborhoods with appropriate services, schools, public assets, transportation and access to jobs”–in other words, a smart-growth urban renewal program. The Democrat’s bill also provides more money for Amtrak, rail transit, and other questionable programs.

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