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Ok, Zoomer

By | | Transportation
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A 20-year-old woman named Cara sent out a tweet showing a map of a high-speed rail plan that someone with no sense made eight years ago with the comment, “I want her so fucking much.” She got 185,000 likes and 50,000 retweets, so Vox concluded that Generation Z (also known as zoomers) is sold on high-speed rail.

The high-speed rail map endorsed by Cara. Click image to read the Antiplanner’s comments on the map when it was released in 2013.

Of course, not everyone who liked or retweeted Cara’s tweet is necessarily a member of Gen Z, nor are zoomers (who number more than 60 million) necessarily accurately represented by 235,000 likes and retweets. But I remember when I was 20 years old and loved passenger trains and was convinced there was an evil conspiracy to kill them off, even though I personally hadn’t ridden on very many of them because they were too expensive. I suspect Cara is just as naive today. Continue reading →

The Dark Side of Japan’s Bullet Trains

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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In 1964, the Japanese National Railways (JNR) was on a roll. The state-owned but largely unsubsidized company had just finished seven years of uninterrupted profits. Moreover, in 1964 it opened the Shinkansen (meaning new main line) between Tokyo and Osaka in time for the Summer Olympics. This exposed an international audience to the latest in Japanese technology in the form of the fastest trains in the world with top speeds of 130 miles per hour and average speeds as high as 86 miles per hour. These quickly became the envy of other countries, leading even the United States Congress to pass a law promoting high-speed trains in 1965.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Today, salarymen and tourists ride shinkansen the full length of Japan’s main island of Honshu as well as on the outer islands of Hokkaido and Kyushu. However, there is a dark side to the shinkansen. Like Darth Vader, who started out as a nice little boy who loved speed but whose life was corrupted by a power-hungry politician, the shinkansen was warped by politicians and ended up doing more harm than good to Japan’s economy. Continue reading →

Sustainable Transport in China

By | | Transportation
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The government of China recently released a paper called Sustainable Development of Transportation in China. It doesn’t have a lot of new information — the data it uses are only current through the end of 2019 — but it does make one assertion I’d like to examine in more detail.

An expressway and rail line leaving Shanghai, China. Photo by Pyzhou.

According to chart 3, on page 12 of the Word version, the share of passenger travel that goes by highway declined from 93.5 percent in 2012 to 73.9 percent in 2019. The difference was taken up by railway transport. This makes China’s high-speed rail program, which grew from 6,000 miles in 2012 to 22,000 miles in 2019, look like a great success. Continue reading →

High-Speed Rail Line Cancelled

By | | Transportation
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A planned high-speed rail line between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur has been cancelled, the governments of Malaysia and Singapore announced last month. The 217-mile line was expected to cost $17 billion, or $78 million per mile, and that was deemed too expensive for Malaysia after it was impacted by the pandemic.

Proposed high-speed rail route. Map by Seloloving.

Before the pandemic, the route was served by conventional trains and buses that took six hours as well as more than 80 airline flights a day, more than any other two cities on earth. The high-speed train would have taken 90 minutes (compared to an hour by plane) and was supposed to capture most of the air travel and contribute to the economic growth of the countries. Continue reading →

A Global Leader in Obsolete Technology

By | | Transportation
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Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg wants to make the United States the “global leader” in high-speed rail. That’s like wanting to be the world leader in electric typewriters, rotary telephones, or steam locomotives, all technologies that were once revolutionary but are functionally obsolete today. High-speed trains, in particular, were rendered obsolete in 1958, when Boeing introduced the 707 jetliner, which was twice as fast as the fastest trains today.

Slower than flying, less convenient than driving, and far more expensive than either one.

Aside from speed, what makes high-speed rail obsolete is its high cost. Unlike airlines, which don’t require much infrastructure other than landing fields, high-speed trains require huge amounts of infrastructure that must be built and maintained to extremely precise standards. That’s why airfares averaged just 14 cents per passenger-mile in 2019, whereas fares on Amtrak’s high-speed Acela averaged more than 90 cents per passenger-mile. Continue reading →

Expensive and Obsolete

By | | Transportation
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“Like electric typewriters, rotary telephones, and Conestoga wagons, high-speed trains are an obsolete technology,” argues an op-ed on Real Clear Policy. The op-ed shows that the Obama administration wasted at least $11.5 billion on ten high-speed rail projects that Wind blows on cialis 5 mg http://opacc.cv/opacc/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/documentos_provas_Exame%20-%20Contabilista%20-%20Contabilidade%20Aprofundada.pdf the rotor blades on the turbine, letting it turn. Cyaniopsia has been spotted in a fraction of a cost you would normally pay in US. sildenafil pill This particular pill should not be practiced by the children as these maybe dangerous if they consume them accidentally. opacc.cv commander levitra Tip #3: Review and Feedbacks If there are no vehicles cheapest online viagra or pedestrians while taking a right turn. produced almost no benefits. “The United States should not waste any more money on such projects,” the op-ed concludes.

Antiplanner readers have seen these arguments before, but it is nice to see that they will reach a wider audience.

New Jet Service a High-Speed Rail Killer

By | | Transportation
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JSX, formerly known as JetSuiteX, is a new airline with a new operating model that will kill any idea that high-speed trains could compete with air travel in short-haul markets. The airline flies many routes that have been planned for high-speed trains, including Oakland-Los Angeles, Los Angeles-Phoenix, and — starting last week — Dallas-Houston.

JSX uses small jet planes with seats for only 30 passengers, allowing it to by-pass TSA requirements as it conducts its own airport screening. Technically, passengers don’t fly JSX, they make reservations and JSX charters a plane that happens to be owned by a JSX subsidiary, which is another way that it by-passes TSA rules. The result is that people can arrive at the terminal just 20 minutes ahead of their flight’s departure. Continue reading →

Texas Central Project May Be Dead

By | | Transportation
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After promising that their Dallas-Houston high-speed rail project would be built solely with private funds, Texas Central backers are sending out feelers about getting a federal guaranteed loan to build it. A letter from the company chairman to Texas state senator Robert Nichols says the project “hit a snag” due to the coronavirus, but “monies we hope to receive from President Trump’s infrastructure stimulus” could make it “construction ready this year.”

The fact that President Trump doesn’t have any infrastructure stimulus money is just a minor detail. Company officials cited possible loans through the Railroad Rehabilitation & Improvement Financing (RRIF) or the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) programs. However, neither of these loan programs are large enough for the kind of project contemplated by Texas Central.

Texas Central was originally supposed to cost $10 billion. Then it was going to cost $20 billion. But the letter to Nichols now admits that the project may cost $30 billion. Continue reading →

Glaring and Frequent Errors

By | | Transportation
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A supposed “analysis” of a proposal for high-speed rail between Vancouver, BC and Seattle is full of “glaring and frequent errors” and is more of a “promotional brochure” than a serious analysis, says transportation accountant Tom Rubin in a report published last week by the Washington Policy Center. Rubin’s first clue that the so-called analysis was more like political propaganda was that it was proposing not just any old high-speed rail but ultra high-speed rail — a term, Rubin points out, that has never been previously used but that is defined in the analysis as trains going more than 250 miles per hour.

The second problem Rubin found is that the trains in the proposal didn’t meet this definition, having actual top speeds of 220 miles per hour. Rubin speculates that the company doing the analysis used the term “ultra” to try to distance its proposal from the California debacle, even though that plan was also for trains going at a top speed of 220 miles per hour.

The analysis was prepared by a company called WSP, which itself has earned $666 million on the California project and could reasonably be expecting to earn more if Washington decides to build a high-speed rail line. Rubin suggests that maybe this indicates that the company has a conflict of interest when preparing this analysis. Continue reading →

Not the Best Timing

By | | Transportation
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A group called the High-Speed Rail Alliance was pleased to announce that Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton is proposing that the federal government spend $240 billion on high-speed rail lines. This is, says the Congressman, “a vision worthy of the moment.”

Is it worthy because ridership of Amtrak is down 95 percent? Or is it worthy because Americans are rethinking their use of mass transportation?

No, apparently it’s worthy because President Trump started a trade war with China that was exacerbated by accusations over COVID-19. China, says Representative Moulton, is expected to “invest” (meaning spend) $46 billion a year on high-speed rail between 2020 and 2030. So, since China is doing it, we have to do it too in order to stay “competitive.” Continue reading →