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April 2022 Driving 94.3% of April 2019

By | | Transportation
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Americans drove 263.1 billion miles in April 2022, according to data released last week by the Federal Highway Administration. This was a 5.7 percent decrease from the 279.1 billion they drove in April 2019.

See the June 8 post for discussion and sources of data for air travel, Amtrak, and transit.

I confess to being surprised that driving fell so far short of pre-pandemic levels, as driving had been more than 100 percent of March 2019-February 2020 numbers in all but one month since June 2021. The numbers released last week are considered preliminary, but the revisions made by the Federal Highway Administration are usually small. Continue reading →

Smart Growth Minneapolis Conflicted over Density

By | | City planning
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A Minnesota judge has ordered the city of Minneapolis to do a more thorough environmental analysis before implementing its plan to densify the city by abolishing single-family zoning. Opponents of the plan argued that densification would reduce the amount of permeable land, leading to increased runoff of polluted waters, which would be harmful to, among other things, migratory birds.

Tearing down these Minneapolis homes and replacing them with duplexes or triplexes won’t make housing more affordable. Photo by Michael Comerford.

Those opponents included the Audubon Chapter of Minneapolis, Minnesota Citizens for the Protection of Migratory Birds, and Smart Growth Minneapolis. I can understand the first two, but why did Smart Growth Minneapolis sign on to this lawsuit? Smart-growth advocates are supposed to favor increased densities. Continue reading →

Why Elephants Are Not People

By | | News commentary
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In a controversial ruling, the New York Court of Appeals recently decided that elephants are not people with constitutional rights. While this would seem to be a no-brainer, animal rights advocates believe that giving animals more rights is a natural progression from a few hundred years ago when only the aristocracy had what we conventionally regard as human rights. Since then, rights were extended first to property owners, then all white men, then women, and then blacks and other minorities.

Elephants at the Bronx Zoo. Photo by Wally Gobetz.

In the New York case, two elephants in the Bronx Zoo were forced to live together in a confined area even though they did not get along. A group called the Nonhuman Rights Project argued that such imprisonment violates the right of habeas corpus and the elephants should be allowed to sue so that they could be released into a larger sanctuary. Continue reading →

The Antiplanner Has Been Hacked

By | | Housekeeping
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Someone has inserted malicious code into some of the blog posts on the Antiplanner as well as my other blog, Streamliner Memories, plus a third blog that I haven’t posted to in several years. The code is mostly invisible to users, but I can find it in the WordPress editor. The code consists of some ramblings about cialis inserted into the middle of the post plus some random numbers — hexadecimal? — at the end of the post. So far, the code doesn’t seem to be dangerous to users, but that could change.

In the past, when this site was hacked, my web server would do a scan for malware and send me the results, allowing me to erase or replace malicious files. Now, my server says they won’t do anything unless I pay them $300 a year per web site. Various security companies on the web say they will scan the site for malicious files; when I do that, they all report there are no malicious files but if I pay them $300 to $500 a year they will guarantee to clean out the malicious file they couldn’t find.

I am uncertain what to do about this. Although I only plan to post to the Antiplanner once a week or so, I’d like to leave past posts for people who want access to the data and articles I’ve published. I’ve continued to post to Streamliner Memories every day and I’d hate to lose that.

So it seems I have to choose between paying someone hundreds of dollars to clean up the sites; shutting down the sites; moving the sites to a new web server that might not charge me as much to keep the site infection-free; or figuring out how to fix the sites myself. If any readers have any ideas or experience with this, please leave a note in the comments or send me an email.

April Transit Falls to 58.7% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Transit ridership in April 2022 was 58.7 percent of April 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is down from March, when ridership was 61.0 percent of March 2019. When I reported on March numbers, I predicted that April’s numbers would fall below 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels because April 2022 had one fewer business day than April 2019, while March had two more than in 2019.

While airline and Amtrak numbers grew in April (as a percent of 2019 levels), transit numbers fell.

For comparison, airline numbers exceeded 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels (which I also predicted) while Amtrak ridership grew to 73 percent (though that’s a drop from November, when ridership was more than 77 percent of November 2019). Driving numbers won’t be out for another week or so, but will probably be around 100 percent. Continue reading →

Most Big Cities Lost Population in 2021

By | | Follow up, Regional planning
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I announced yesterday I was retiring from daily blog posts, but I also said I would comment on new data when it was relevant. So I can hardly pass up noting that the Census Bureau just posted 2021 population data for the more than 800 American cities larger than 50,000 people. As I predicted in a recent policy brief, the new numbers show that most dense cities lost population while low-density cities grew.

Less than 2 percent of the jobs in the Phoenix area are in downtown Phoenix, making it one of the least downtown-dependent major cities in the country. Low-density housing throughout the region makes it attractive to people wanting to avoid crowded areas. Photo by Adam Fagen.

Of America’s largest cities, expensive ones such as Los Angeles and San Francisco lost residents (with the latter declining by 6.3 percent!), but affordable cities such as Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta also declined. The largest cities whose populations grew were Phoenix, San Antonio, Austin, and Jacksonville. With the exception of Austin, these are all low-density cities whose downtowns are tiny by traditional standards, each with well under 50,000 jobs before the pandemic. In other words, housing affordability was an issue, but more important was people were leaving dense areas for low-density areas. Continue reading →

The World Turned Upside Down

By | | Mission
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Today marks 50 years of my work in public policy analysis. I began in June 1972 as an intern for the Oregon Student Public Interest Research Group. By July, I had written a lengthy paper on how Portland should make transportation improvements to reduce air pollution. Since then, I’ve written somewhere around 200 more papers, several books, and numerous op-eds and articles on topics ranging from endangered species to high-speed rail in geographic areas ranging from Georgia to Tasmania.

I started writing the Antiplanner in January, 2007, and have since written more than 3,700 posts, including 150 policy briefs. That’s enough; it’s time for me to retire. This is difficult because I feel I still have some unfinished business.

The first half of my career was helping environmentalists protect natural resources from corporations that wanted government subsidies to do harm to the environment. After two decades, I left the environmental movement when they began supporting government subsidies to corporations to do harm to the environment. Continue reading →

Brightline Demands $45 Million to Improve Safety

By | | Transportation
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Brightline celebrated its third year of operating passenger trains in south Florida this month by killing two people in two days and then a third person a few days later. This makes a total of 63 deaths due to Brightline, which has been rated the most dangerous railroad in the country.

Of course, as shown in the above video, Brightline blames all of the fatalities on the victims. The deaths have nothing to do with Brightline adding fast, frequent passenger trains to a corridor that previously was used only by slow, infrequent freight trains. Continue reading →

Hybrid Streetcar Begins Operations in Tempe

By | | Transportation
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Leave it to the transit industry to take a good idea and distort it beyond recognition or wisdom. That was my reaction when I learned that Tempe, Arizona began operating a hybrid streetcar last week. The three-mile streetcar line cost $200 million, or $67 million per mile.

For a mere $200 million, Tempe now has a streetcar that doesn’t work as well as a bus route that would have cost only about $3 million dollars. Photo courtesy of Valley Metro.

For rolling stock, Tempe elected to buy vehicles that cost $6.5 million apiece. At first glance, they look like other so-called modern streetcars, but have batteries that allow them to operate where there are no overhead wires. This makes them, according to their manufacturer, “the Prius of the modern streetcar market.” Continue reading →

How Much Does Amtrak Delay Freight Trains?

By | | Transportation
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At a time when almost everyone in the nation is affected by supply-chain problems but almost no one is riding Amtrak, the Federal Railroad Administration is frantic about how Amtrak trains are being delayed by freight trains. According to the agency’s latest report, Amtrak trains were delayed by a total of 1.3 million minutes (that’s 21,666 hours) in the first quarter of 2022, up 9 percent from the previous quarter.

Who is delaying whom? Photo by Patrick Dirden.

“The largest cause of delays was freight train interference at 299,252 minutes of delay — 22 percent of total delay minutes, an increase of 12 percent from the previous quarter,” says the report. However, the report makes no attempt to estimate the number of minutes of delays to freight trains caused by Amtrak. Passenger train delays, continues the report, caused a minuscule 2 percent of Amtrak riders — about 18,290 — who were connecting with a different train to miss their connections. Continue reading →