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America’s Rising Housing Prices

By | | Housing, Policy brief
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Now is a great time to sell a home, but a terrible time to buy one. According to the St. Louis Fed, median home prices in the United States have risen by 25 percent since the pandemic began in December 2019, which is probably more than any two-year period in history. Even after adjusting for inflation, prices in many markets are higher today than they were at the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

This increase is due to a combination of labor shortages and supply-chain issues. Unlike the housing bubble, these issues are affecting all housing markets, not just those beset by anti-sprawl growth-management planning. Indeed, prices in some places without any growth management have risen more than in some places with strict growth-management regulations. Continue reading →

Pittsburgh Bridge Collapse

By | | Transportation
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Just when the infrastructure issue seemed to be settled for awhile, the failure of the 52-year-old Fern Hollow bridge in Pittsburgh has reawakened it, especially as the collapse took place just a few hours before President Biden was scheduled to speak in Pittsburgh. “I hope it’s a wake-up call to the nation that we need to make these infrastructure investments,” Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman told local reporters.

Photo from the Pittsburgh Department of Public Safety. Click image for a larger view.

No one yet knows why the bridge collapsed, but numerous media reports say that it was rated to be in poor condition. Inspection reports reveal, however, that the part of the bridge in poor condition was its superstructure while its substructure was considered “satisfactory.” Bad substructure may cause a bridge to collapse, but not, generally, bad superstructure. A 2017 inspection concluded that the bridge “meets minimum tolerable limits to be left in place as is.” As a result, the bridge wasn’t scheduled to be repaired or replaced under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Continue reading →

Top Ten Lies in Transportation Projects

By | | Regional planning, Transportation
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Bent Flyvbjerg, who specializes in studying megaprojects, has a new paper describing the “Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management.” Each of these biases are ways in which planners lie to themselves, the public, or both. His basic thesis is that these are not just cognitive biases, or accidentally poor judgments, but are political biases, that is, deliberately poor judgments.

According to the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), 8,000 people turned out to witness the opening of a $2.1 billion waste of money. Photo by SANDAG.

While the paper is interesting and I have no doubt that strategic misrepresentations and other political biases take place, I have to wonder why they do. The reason I am surprised is that the general public seems to be completely innumerate when it comes to government spending. Continue reading →

Mandates to Reduce Per Capita Vehicle Travel

By | | Transportation
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Governments around the world should forcibly limit automobile travel to 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) per person per year, says the ominously named Patrick Moriarty, an engineering professor at Melbourne’s Monash University. That’s 4,000 passenger-kilometers a year, so in the United States, where the average car carries 1.67 people, that’s really 2,400 vehicle-kilometers (about 1,500 vehicle-miles) per person per year.

Wave good-bye to 80 percent of your mobility if Moriarty has his way.

Since Americans drove about 8,900 vehicle-miles or 15,000 passenger-miles per person in 2019, this mandate would require an 83-percent reduction in auto travel. In other countries, it would be less, of course. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australians drove 255 billion kilometers (about 160 billion miles) before the pandemic. Assuming 10 percent of that was heavy trucks, buses, and motorcycles (as it is in the U.S.), then that represents about 6,000 miles of automobile driving per person. Moriarty’s proposed mandate would reduce that by a mere 75 percent. Continue reading →

Driving Reaches 102.7% of 2019 Levels

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
2 Comments

Americans drove 2.7 percent more miles in November 2021 than in November 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration this week. Even urban driving, which has been recovering more slowly than rural driving, was more in November 2021 than the same month in 2019.

Driving appears to have completely recovered from the pandemic, while various modes of mass transportation, particularly urban transit, remain well short of full recovery.

November driving was greater than in 2019 in 36 states. The greatest increases were in South Dakota (30.6%), Arizona (22.5%), Missouri (17.4%), and Kentucky (15.7%). The greatest shortfalls were in West Virginia (-24.6%), California (-14.3%), New Jersey (-9.1%), Massachusetts (-6.7%), and Minnesota (-6.8%). Although New Jersey driving declined, New York driving grew by 1.5 percent. Except for West Virginia, none of these numbers are too surprising. Continue reading →

How Cato Sold Out California Property Owners

By | | Housing, Policy brief
32 Comments

In September, 2021, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill abolishing single-family zoning. This bill was a victory for the Yes in Other People’s Back Yards (YIOPBY) movement, as well as for urban planners who sought to densify California urban areas, which are already the densest in the nation.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

It was also a victory for the Cato Institute, which was proud of the fact that it was working hand-in-hand with left-wing groups that sought to force Californians to live in ways in which they didn’t want to live. Cato’s work was led by Michael Tanner, whose previous experience with housing issues was nearly nil. In supporting this movement, Cato and Tanner ignored everything I had written in two books and seven policy papers for Cato over the previous fourteen years. Continue reading →

St. Louis Plans More Transit Spending

By | | Transportation
2 Comments

St. Louis, whose transit system carried fewer riders in 2019 than before it built its first light-rail line, is once again planning for a new transit line. The existing light-rail system is mainly oriented east and west, and city officials are talking about building a north-south light-rail or bus-rapid transit line.

The Shiloh-Scott extension added 3.5 miles to St. Louis’ light-rail system in 2003, yet St. Louis transit carried 4.5 percent fewer bus and rail riders in 2004 than it had carried in 2002. Photo by Matthew Black.

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Spending More, Getting Less

By | | Wildfire
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Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Forest Service Chief Randy Moore have announced a new strategy to fix the nation’s wildfire crisis. Not surprisingly, the most important part of that strategy is to give them a lot more money.

Click image to download a 34.0-MB PDF of this report.

The Forest Service plan, if it could be called that, consists of two simple steps: 1. Give them enough money to do 5 million additional acres of hazardous fuel treatments a year for ten years. 2. By the time that ten years is up, they promise to write another plan for the next ten years. Continue reading →

St. Louis Streetcar May Live Again

By | | Transportation
2 Comments

Everyone from the Wall Street Journal to Reason magazine to Planetizen seems to be worried about the future of the St. Louis Loop Trolley. Nearly everyone in St. Louis agrees that it was a failure, but the Federal Transit Administration has demanded that the city keep running it or repay the $37 million in federal funds used to build it.

The trolley trundles down Delmar Boulevard. Photo by Paul Sableman.

There is supposed to be a good reason for the federal “claw-back” policy: if local officials know they will be required to fund operations, they might be reluctant to ask for federal funds to build a project in the first place. Unfortunately, elected officials have time horizons measured in election cycles, so they really don’t think far enough ahead to worry about operating costs. Continue reading →

Does the Transit Industry Still Need Rescuing?

By | | Transportation
4 Comments

No matter how you may feel about vaccinations, the story of the COVID vaccine is pretty amazing. COVID was first publicly reported on December 31, 2019. Within two weeks, scientists had published the DNA sequence for the virus. Barely a month later, a vaccine had been designed and manufactured. After nine months of clinical trials, the vaccine was authorized by the Food & Drug Administration and millions of doses were made available.

MTA officials attempt to pass out masks to customers who appear totally disinterested in this great photo op. Photo by Marc Hermann, MTA.

Meanwhile, Congress passed the American Rescue Plan in March 2021, the third of three COVID relief bills. The plan included $30.5 billion for public transit, most of which was to be distributed using the same formulas that were used to distribute other federal transit funds. Continue reading →