As a result of the pandemic, 44 percent of New York City residents expect to “avoid public transit entirely” after stay-at-home orders end. Since, in 2018, 56 percent of New Yorkers rode transit to work, it may be that the 44 percent who weren’t riding transit are the ones who say they won’t ride it in the future.
However, another 31.5 percent say they expect to use transit less. Just 18.5 percent say they expect to use transit as much as they did before the pandemic. If people do what they say they are going to do, New York City transit is going to lose a lot of riders. The survey also found that 5.5 percent say they expect to work at home, which is just 1 percentage point more than the 4.5 percent of New Yorkers who worked at home in 2018.
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Surveys are, at best, a first approximation of future behavior. Tomorrow’s Antiplanner policy brief will present my projections of transportation in the first year or two after the pandemic. They will rely less on what people say they are going to do and more on what we have learned during the pandemic. I’ll be interested in your comments.
On the other hand, 420,000 new york’s wealthy residents have packed their bags and said GOOD bye to the big apple. And with it the tax revenue New York desperately needs to finance itself. BUT don’t worry, they’ll rescue themselves the way they always do…….more taxes.
Why do states at first brag about how much they contribute to GDP but beg for federal funding. It’s like saying you’re the worlds strongest man but skirt any request to lift something……….The last time the city came close to filing for bankruptcy was in 1975 when former President Gerald Ford refused to give the city a bailout package to settle its debt. In the 70’s, NYC nearly went bankrupt because of a stagnant economy, high taxes, high living expenses and the mass exodus of the middle class to the suburbs. Now, with the middle class decimated and having fled the city all together, the only people in NYC are either the very rich and the poor to lower middle class.
@Lazyreader hey are probably “begging” for federal money bc they already put more into the federal coffers then they receive so their just asking for more of their own money back.
Interesting point. It turns out that the highest population, and blue, states in general pay more to the federal government than they pay back. Less populated generally red states get more back.
https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-taxes-federal-services-difference-by-state-2019-1#wyoming-51
Most federal spending is mandatory, Defense and Entitlements, the more welfare generations and old people the more federal cash tends to go in a given direction. And retiree’s and pensioners……move to red states where Cost of living tends to be lower. That’s why federal spending is ubiquitous is red states. THE trend in people moving to red states has been on-going for the last decade or so.
The Fact is… NYC’s tax revenue breakdown, the top 1% of tax filers; pay close to 39% of all revenue. The top 3% PAY almost half. About 75% of all the city’s tax revenue comes from the echelon who earn over 100,000 dollars……. What do you think will happen when 400,000 people in that income bracket say Adios…….
It’s a financial nightmare.
I think people are overreacting because how else are they supposed to get where they wanna go to in New York? Congested streets of New York?
The real question is how important will New York, and Manhattan, in particular, be after the pandemic. If many people will get scared of cities, they will move out. New Yorkers will still ride transit a lot, but there will be fewer of them.
As always with these covid19 discussions, everything depends on biology. How will the final resolution of the crisis look like? If we are getting the vaccine in 2020, then perhaps the world in 2022 will not be that much different from the world in 2019. If we are not getting the vaccine, not all getting infected and getting some sort of immunity, and instead trying to engage in the social distancing forever project, then the death of New York City will be a comparatively insignificant event.
I think people are overreacting because how else are they supposed to get where they wanna go to in New York? Congested streets of New York?
The real question is how important will New York, and Manhattan, in particular, be after the pandemic. If many people will get scared of cities, they will move out. New Yorkers will still ride transit a lot, but there will be fewer of them.
As always with these covid19 discussions, everything depends on biology. How will the final resolution of the crisis look like? If we are getting the vaccine in 2020, then perhaps the world in 2022 will not be that much different from the world in 2019. If we are not getting the vaccine, not all getting infected and getting some sort of immunity, and instead trying to engage in the social distancing forever project, then the death of New York City will be a comparatively insignificant event.
It wasn’t too long ago,Gavin Newsom posted on twitter about California having a surplus budget and mocking the Trump admin running a deficit. Of course California had a surplus they were begging or extorting the fed to finance all their ambitious plans like the billions of federal money on it’s few miles of High speed rail, electrifying overhead rail lines. One out of every three welfare recipients live in California so everything from Food stamps, welfare, unemployment, HUD assistance, etc. There’s Tens of thousands of defense employees in California, NASA, all expend federal money.
So what you’ll see in the coming months or years is California transitioning into the Tax/fee and Fine era of the states revenue crisis. What costs money for the state vs. what makes money. If an illegal alien dumps hazardous waste in a public park……it’s a losing issue because you gotta pay to arrest, court, jail, translation, clean up. But a yuppie in a range rover, with a styrofoam cup talking on his bluetooth there’s Money to be made in tickets and fines. Because the police unlike any other agency of the state can make money hand over fist thru behavioral fines and enforcement And they’re gonna do it because they’re just like the other state agencies in California demanding a massive bailout of it’s state pension funds they’ve managed and run into the ground…………the police have the same pension funds and financial burdens and they’re broke. The difference is they can make money writing tickets. It’s what cash strapped law enforcement agencies do when fiscal hard times set in.
Dear U.S. citizens & legal residents in California,
* How does it feel to pay high taxes that go to pay for illegal immigrants?
* How does it feel to know your rights are exactly the same as those who are not supposed to here in the first place? (Voting in national elections aside)
* How does it feel to work hard & follow the rules only to have your taxes go to pay for people who spit at your country & your laws?
Just wondering. Sincerely Yours,
The rest of the U.S.
PS: Don’t like any of those issues I brought up, VOTE OUT the Democrats. ??
[t]hey are probably “begging” for federal money bc they already put more into the federal coffers then they receive so their just asking for more of their own money back.
If they send it to the federal government, it’s no longer their money. I will never, for the life of me, understand why people who repeatedly voter for a larger, more intrusive federal government then go on to complain about its distributive effects. Vote for a smaller government. Problem solved.
These kinds of “studies” are worse than useless. They actually leave people even more confused than before reading them, because they don’t say anything about the actual federal budget and how its money is spent.
Beyond the issue of defense spending, which is one of the more conspicuous holes in these analyses, they nearly always fail to mention entitlement spending, which is a large share of the federal budget and is not discretionary.
For example, if I lived most of my life in New York and paid payroll taxes to the federal government the entire time, none of this would show up on the revenue side of the ledger in the most recent year. But if I recently moved to Florida or Arizona upon retirement, applied for Medicare and Social Security, and then started receiving services, those would start showing up on expenditure side.
Also, these studies never even touch the fact that placing most states into a red state/blue state dichotomy is not realistically possible. Most states have mixed representation. And most nominal “red” states have sizable pockets of blue voters in them, and vice versa.