Peer Review? So What?
posted in News commentary |“If you’re so smart,” people sometimes ask the Antiplanner, “why haven’t you published any articles in peer-reviewed journals?” Part of my answer is that I’ve seen so many peer-reviewed articles that are simply junk science that I don’t have much respect for the process. (The other part of my answer is that I am not seeking academic tenure, which used to be the major reason for writing peer-reviewed articles.)
A prime example of peer-reviewed junk science is the spate of articles a few years ago linking obesity to suburban sprawl. As noted here before, back in 2003 a group called Smart Growth America breathlessly announced a peer-reviewed study supposedly proving that sprawl “has a hand in the nation’s obesity crisis” which “demonstrate[s] the urgent need” for smart growth. Actually, the results of the peer-reviewed study were much weaker, only claiming that sprawl “had small but significant associations” with obesity.
Small is right. As Wendell Cox discovered, the data used by Smart Growth America indicated that residents of dense Boston weighed just 1.7 pounds less than Boston suburbanites, while those of denser Chicago weighed just 1.4 pounds less than that city’s least-dense suburbs.
Since then, new studies have shown that any correlation between suburbs and obesity is the result of self-selection: people who weigh more are more likely to live in auto-friendly neighborhoods. Clearly, autos and suburbs didn’t make them fat, but that hasn’t stopped groups like Smart Growth America from continuing to maintain that we need to socially engineer American cities to reduce obesity.
Another peer-reviewed study claimed that sprawl was the cause of a variety of chronic diseases. Like the obesity study, this one was based on telephone surveys, not the most accurate source of data. Neither the obesity study nor the chronic disease study actually compared cities vs. suburbs: the obesity study compared high- vs. low-density counties, while the chronic disease study compared high- vs. low-density metropolitan areas. Like the obesity study, the correlations were weak: many low-density metro areas, such as Atlanta, had lower rates of chronic disease than high-density areas, such as New York. Nevertheless, sprawl opponents used both studies to trumpet the case against suburbs.
Recent evidence suggests that the real cause of increased obesity is changes in diets as restaurants and food processors have discovered that foods with more salt, fat, and sugar are more “palatable.” The timetable makes more sense: suburbanization happened mainly in the 1950s and 1960s, while fast-food and restaurant booms were more significant in the 1990s, when the increase in obesity was first measured. (Yes, I know there were fast-food restaurants in the 1950s, but at that time, going out to eat, even at a McDonalds, was a rare treat, while today many people eat out at least once a day.)
The Antiplanner is not the only one to be suspicious of the peer-review process. A few days ago, Peter Berkowitz of Stanford Hoover Institution argued that Climategate was the “predictable result” of a peer-review process that “gives scholars ample opportunity to reward friends and punish enemies.” Peer review, says political scientist Berkowitz, “violates a fundamental principle of fairness” by allowing scholars to “the work of allies and rivals,” thus allowing them to promote one and blackball the other (which is one of the actions the Climategate scholars promised to take). It is bad enough when it is for the sake of their careers, but it is far worse when the goals are political.




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