It’s the Economy, Stupid!

At least once a week, the Antiplanner encounters an urban plan that assumes that millennials and other young people will be much less inclined to drive cars and own their own homes than Americans have been in the past. But a new study from researchers at UCLA reaches the same conclusions as other researchers reported by the Antiplanner: young people drive less because of the weak economy, not because they prefer to walk and take transit.


Is this the American Dream?

Similarly, a 2013 survey from PulteGroup, a home builder, finds that the vast majority of people between 18 and 34 aspire to own their own homes. Among those whose incomes are above $50,000, 65 percent say they hope to buy a home in the next year. Similar results were found from a 2012 poll by Better Homes & Gardens Realty and a 2011 survey by the National Association of Home Builders. Far from appreciating multifamily housing, the greatest fear of young people in New Zealand is that they will be stuck in apartments.


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Or is it this?

Home builders and realtors have a vital stake in knowing future demand. If people really did prefer multifamily housing over single-family homes, as some planners assert, builders and realtors would be only too happy to build and sell such housing.

Of course, there is always the possibility that the economy will never recover, in which case homeownership and driving rates will remain down. As the Soviet Union proved, the key to a successful smart-growth policy of dense cities with minimal auto usage is poverty. With their focus on regulation, higher taxes, and subsidies only to favored companies and developers, many urban planners seem determined to make this happen. Let’s hope they fail.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

10 Responses to It’s the Economy, Stupid!

  1. OFP2003 says:

    Subway train driver must have been purposely trying to make everyone motion-sick yesterday. I have never given myself motion-sickness when driving my own car. Yet another simple quality of life reason to avoid the rails.

  2. bennett says:

    “Preference” and “the economy” are not mutually exclusive. It’s silly to assume that Gen Y doesn’t want certain things. Of course they would like to own a car! The difference between gen Y and previous generation is in their priorities. When faced with the decision to buy a used car or a brand new Mac Book Pro, many in gen Y choose the latter. Many are still childless, living in denser communities or college towns where the basic services they need are close enough to make other modes of transport feasible.

    Most will need a car as they continue to grow socially and professionally. If they buy a home, most will buy one of the periphery of the urban core where they can afford it.

    And yes, millennials are faced with a very tough economy thanks to the generation that has labeled them entitled and lazy, despite the fact that the are more productive in the workplace and get paid less for it.

    http://aweinstein.kinja.com/fuck-you-im-gen-y-and-i-dont-feel-special-or-entitl-1333588443/1335055150@maxread?utm_campaign=socialflow_gawker_facebook&utm_source=gawker_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

  3. Dan says:

    Can’t find it now, but a couple recent studies found that the Yoots don’t get their self-identity or feeling of freedom from cars any more. It comes from their phone. That’s right, sorry: car ? freedom for yoots.

    You can see Detroit and automakers thrashing about for play with their stuffed animal mascots trying to get yoots to consume cute transport.

    Nonetheless, as wages fall and more people are stuck in low-paying jobs for longer and longer, it will be utterly expected that VMT will fall and GenYoot will drive less and car ? freedom.

    DS

  4. Frank says:

    ^so cute

    Let this generation grow obese obsessing over tech. That means central Washington will be wonderfully empty when I need to escape the fat zombies texting as they step into crosswalks without first checking for traffic.

  5. prk166 says:

    Mr. O’Toole, I’m not sure why this really matters. Regardless of the accuracy of the claims, the claims wouldn’t be needed if government wasn’t constantly and purposely distorting markets.

  6. MJ says:

    Can’t find it now, but a couple recent studies found that the Yoots don’t get their self-identity or feeling of freedom from cars any more. It comes from their phone. That’s right, sorry: car ? freedom for yoots.

    Freedom and self-identity have nothing to do with it. Gen-____ers (which one are we on now?) are likely to travel in much the same way as their predecessors, since travelers respond more to convenience and cost than a desire to derive “self-identity”. Let me know when you dig up those studies.

    You can see Detroit and automakers thrashing about for play with their stuffed animal mascots trying to get yoots to consume cute transport.

    They don’t look like they are doing much flailing to me. Here is the choice quote:

    “It’s not just the number 16 that’s amazing,” George Magliano, chief economist for IHS Automotive, said by telephone. “It’s the fact that it’s coming effortlessly. We’re not dumping cars and trucks into the fleets. We’re not using humungous incentives to move them. It’s a reflection of people’s willingness to buy and the strength of the product out there.”

    Nonetheless, as wages fall and more people are stuck in low-paying jobs for longer and longer, it will be utterly expected that VMT will fall and GenYoot will drive less and car ? freedom.

    Like I said, let me know when you find those studies.

  7. bennett says:

    Again, it’s the economy not just the “weak” economy. Of course they’re not buying as many cars, with the cost of living raising, stagnant wages, ballooning student loan debt, cell phones, cell phone plans, computers, etc. there’s not a lot left for buying a car. It’s not that they don’t want one, it’s that there are a lot of other (new) considerations.

    And the social contracts that benefited so many of their predecessors is being ripped away from them by none other than their predecessors.

  8. Ohai says:

    The study of young people in New Zealand is notable because out of 20 countries, “young Kiwis were the only ones to list a city apartment as a major fear.” (emphasis added)

    Indeed, if you read the whole study, young people seem to be most concerned about “poverty and the environment,” with little mention of driving cars or home ownership.

  9. Sandy Teal says:

    I am surprised nobody points to the collapse of real estate as the cause of less driving. At the peak of the bubble, people were buying houses at the extreme edge of metro areas and that fed extreme commutes. With the collapse of the real estate bubble, housing went through a huge readjustment and people could move closer to work, and closer to public transit if they want.

    Looking at it another way, a huge problem created by a real estate bubble is that people don’t move to housing that better suits them, and people buy houses on speculation and don’t live in them, forcing others to live further out.

  10. gilfoil says:

    “As the Soviet Union proved, the key to a successful smart-growth policy of dense cities with minimal auto usage is poverty.”

    I wonder why the Antiplanner picked the Soviet Union as a typical example of a country with dense cities? Are there any other countries in the world with dense cities with minimal auto usage? Maybe he could try visiting anywhere in Europe sometime. France, Germany, Netherlands, all have dense cities where you don’t need a car to get around. And yet people seem better off than the Soviet Union! How could that be?

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