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BLM: Following the Money

By | | Policy brief
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Before Black Lives Mattered, the acronym BLM usually referred to the Bureau of Land Management, an agency in the Department of the Interior that manages more than 10 percent of the nation’s land as well as mineral resources located under another 19 percent of the nation. After the creation of the national forests, national parks, national monuments, and fish & wildlife refuges, the BLM was formed in 1946 to manage the remaining federal lands.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The BLM manages areas that were never claimed as a railroad land grant, under the Homestead Act, or under some other law, leading people to sometimes call them “the lands that no one wanted.” In some cases that is true, but in other cases someone might have wanted the lands but laws such as the Homestead Act restricted the number of acres that a settler could claim for themselves. Continue reading →

Glaring and Frequent Errors

By | | Transportation
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A supposed “analysis” of a proposal for high-speed rail between Vancouver, BC and Seattle is full of “glaring and frequent errors” and is more of a “promotional brochure” than a serious analysis, says transportation accountant Tom Rubin in a report published last week by the Washington Policy Center. Rubin’s first clue that the so-called analysis was more like political propaganda was that it was proposing not just any old high-speed rail but ultra high-speed rail — a term, Rubin points out, that has never been previously used but that is defined in the analysis as trains going more than 250 miles per hour.

The second problem Rubin found is that the trains in the proposal didn’t meet this definition, having actual top speeds of 220 miles per hour. Rubin speculates that the company doing the analysis used the term “ultra” to try to distance its proposal from the California debacle, even though that plan was also for trains going at a top speed of 220 miles per hour.

The analysis was prepared by a company called WSP, which itself has earned $666 million on the California project and could reasonably be expecting to earn more if Washington decides to build a high-speed rail line. Rubin suggests that maybe this indicates that the company has a conflict of interest when preparing this analysis. Continue reading →

Fixing Federal Affordable Housing Programs

By | | Housing
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The federal government has 160 different housing programs run by at least six separate departments and more than a dozen independent agencies, observes a report released this week by the Senate Budget Committee. These programs often overlap and there is no effort to test how successful any of them are in accomplishing their objectives. The 160 programs were actually identified in a 2012 GAO report (and listed here by agency).

Click image to download this report.

In a Budget Committee hearing on September 16, University of Virginia economist Edgar Olsen testified that “most current recipients” of federal low-income housing assistance “are served by programs whose cost is enormously excessive for the housing provided.” He recommended phasing out the least-cost-effective ones while retaining the ones that were working the best. Continue reading →

Telling Clients What They Want to Hear

By | | Regional planning, Transportation
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The Washington State Transportation Commission hired the Boston Consulting Group to develop a “sustainable growth vision” for the Cascadia Corridor, which means Vancouver, BC to Portland, Oregon. The Boston Group did taxpayers a disservice by telling the commission what it wanted to hear, rather than what it needed to know.

The group observed that the cities in the corridor have the opportunity to become “a global innovation hub.” To find out how to do that, the Bostonians looked at other major innovation hubs and discovered they fall into two rather distinct groups that it called “affordable sprawl” and “expensive and congested.” The best representative of the former is the Texas Triangle, meaning Dallas-Houston-San Antonio. The best representative of the latter is the San Francisco Bay Area.

When measured on two axes of housing affordability and a rush-hour congestion, the Texas Triangle is high on affordability and low on congestion, while the Bay Area is low on affordability and high on congestion. The Bostonians noted that the Cascadia Corridor is currently right in the middle on both, but warned that if it wasn’t careful it would end up as bad or even worse off than the Bay Area. Continue reading →

Measuring Climate Intentions, Not Results

By | | Regional planning
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If your city wants to be lauded for doing the most to reduce climate change, it needs to impose as heavy-handed restrictions as possible on every aspect of your daily life. It doesn’t matter whether those restrictions actually do anything to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; all that matters is that they be as restrictive as possible.

Click image to download this 5.1-MB report.

That’s the conclusion reached from reviewing a Clean City Energy Scorecard report from a group called the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. The report “scores 100 U.S. cities on their efforts to achieve a clean energy future by improving energy efficiency and scaling up renewable energy.” New York is rated number one and Boston and Seattle are tied for number two. Continue reading →

High-Capacity Transit Deceptions

By | | Policy brief
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Transit advocates routinely make deceptive claims about the advantages of transit over cars or rail transit over buses. Often those claims deal with the capacity of different modes of transportation to move people. This policy brief will scrutinize some of these claims.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Deception #1: Buses vs. Cars

Transit advocates often use a particular photo set that purports to show the “space required to transport 60 people by car, bicycle, and bus.” The photo on the right shows a conventional 40-foot bus, which has about 40 seats in it and room for about 20 people standing. Next to the bus are the 60 passengers. Continue reading →

August Traffic Trends

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 251 billion vehicle-miles in August 2020, about 12 percent less than they drove in August 2019, according to data released on Saturday by the Federal Highway Administration. Rural driving was down 10 percent while urban driving was down 14 percent.

Hawaii saw the biggest decline in driving with a 33 percent drop from 2019. Delaware was a distant second at 24 percent, followed by Vermont (-20%) and Rhode Island (-19%). Around 95 percent of the residents of California live in urban areas, and driving in those urban areas dropped by a relatively modest 18 percent. Rural states saw the smallest declines: Wyoming (-2%), Montana (-3%), Arkansas, Idaho, and Arkansas (-5% each).
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Interstate highways saw the biggest declines while the drops in driving on both urban and rural local roads were much smaller. The 12 percent drop in overall driving contrasts with August transit ridership, which was 63 percent less than in August 2019.

Low-Income Housing Tax Credits Database

By | | Follow up, Housing
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Last week’s Antiplanner policy brief reviewed Seattle’s low-income housing program and found that it was mainly aimed at getting people to live in transit-oriented developments and did very little to help low-income families. The natural question to ask is whether this is a national problem or confined to Seattle and a few other cities. My hypothesis is that it is largely an issue in growth-management cities that are trying to get people to live in higher densities and replace cars with transit, cycling, and walking.

To help answer this question, I downloaded the Department of Housing & Urban Development’s LIHTC database, which lists 48,672 projects supported by tax credits since 1987 (click here to download the 18.9-MB data file or click the previous link to download a subset of the database). HUD seems to be behind as the database does not list any projects that were completed in 2019 or 2020.

Still, it includes a lot of information, including the address of each project, the number of units and how many are dedicated to low-income households, the tax credits allocated to each project, and whether other federal subsidies also went to the project (but not how much those subsidies were). Continue reading →

Waymo Is Back in Business

By | | Transportation
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Last March, Waymo suspended its driverless taxi operations in Arizona due to the pandemic. Now, it has not only started up again, it has opened the service to all members of the public. Previously, it had been available only to about a thousand people who had signed up for and been accepted as “early riders.”

Waymo’s taxis are geofenced, meaning they can only operate in an area that has been carefully and precisely mapped. At the moment, that includes about 50 square miles of Chandler, Mesa, and Tempe, Arizona. Technically, autonomous cars that need maps to work are classed as level 4 vehicles. Level 5 vehicles should be able to drive themselves anywhere without maps.

In response to a tweet about Waymo’s progress, Elon Musk tweeted that level 4 “gives a false sense of victory being close” and that Tesla is aiming for level 5; he claims its “new system is capable of driving in locations we never seen even once.” Continue reading →

Joe Biden’s Tired Old Infrastructure Plan

By | | Transportation
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The infrastructure plan recently released by the Biden campaign is a collection of tired ideas that have consistently failed in the past. Too much of the plan is based on last year’s groupthink and not enough of the plan recognizes the new realities that have emerged from the pandemic.

A large part of the plan is based on getting people out of their cars and onto transit and bicycles. American cities have been trying to do this for the last fifty years, spending $1.5 trillion subsidizing transit, and it hasn’t worked anywhere. The plan calls for connecting low-income workers to jobs by building more transit, yet people can reach far more jobs by automobile than by transit while auto ownership, not transit subsidies, are the key to getting people out of poverty.

The plan is based on assumptions about transportation dollar and environmental costs that are fundamentally wrong. Transit, the plan says, saves money while cars impose a burden on low-income people and produce too many greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, when subsidies are included, American transit systems spend five times as much moving a passenger one mile than the average automobile. Ignoring subsidies, average transit fares are still more than the average cost of driving per passenger mile. Transit also uses more energy and emits more greenhouse gases per passenger mile. Continue reading →