Housing Doesn’t Need Government Planning

“Housing needs planning” is the opening line of Colorado Senate Bill 23-213, which was introduced into the legislature last week. By “planning” the bill means government planning, and the proposed law would require the state to determine housing needs and set housing targets and to interfere with local zoning to require more accessory dwelling units, multifamily housing, and transit-oriented developments.

Apartments in Boulder, Colorado, the most heavily planned and most expensive housing market in the state.

The basic premise of this law is wrong: housing and government planning go together like oil and water. A look at housing markets in Colorado and nationwide show that states and regions with more planning end up having less affordable housing. A secondary premise, that multifamily housing is more affordable than single-family homes, is also wrong. Continue reading

The Latest International Affordability Data

“Housing affordability in 2022 continued to reflect the huge price increases that occurred during the pandemic demand shock,” reports demographer Wendell Cox in his 2023 international housing affordability report. “Some housing affordability improvements have since occurred and more are likely as the demand shock is hopefully replaced by more normal market trends.”

Click image to download a 3.6-MB PDF of this 26-page report.

Cox measures housing affordability in more than 90 urban areas located in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States by dividing median home prices with median household incomes. I use the same measure except I use median family incomes, which are readily available through 2021 using U.S. census data. Cox probably uses household incomes because they are more readily available for 2022 and in other countries. This is the latest update of a series of reports going back to 2005 (with data for 2004). Continue reading

Enabling Homelessness

More than 5,000 people are homeless in Oregon’s Multnomah County, most of them in Portland, and Oregon has the fourth-highest rate of homelessness in the nation. According to community-service worker Kevin Dahlgren, the problem is that the bureaucracies and non-profit groups that work on the homeless issue spend their time enabling people to remain homeless, rather than trying to rehabilitate them so they can get a job and housing.

The homeless crisis is making parts of Portland unlivable, yet the social service groups “are part of the problem,” says Dahlgren. Instead of getting people permanently off the streets, Portland and other cities are now giving away tents, blankets, and other materials that allow homeless people to remain on the streets. What they should be doing, says Dahlgren, is “ending homelessness by empowering, not enabling” homeless people. Continue reading

Town and Country Dystopian Act

The United Kingdom has some of the least affordable housing of any country in the world, with median homes costing more than five times median incomes. In the United States, only California and Hawaii have less affordable housing. A new report estimates that the U.K. needs 4.3 million homes to restore affordability, but the country’s planning system prevents those homes from being built.

Click image to download a 5.1-MB PDF of this 65-page report.

The report, which is published by a think tank called Centre for Cities, correctly places the blame for the state of the country’s housing on the Town & Country Planning Act of 1947. This law took away development rights from every private landowner in the country and only allowed new development if it complied with local and regional land-use plans. Continue reading

Urbanization by State

The share of land in the United States that is urbanized grew from 2.90 percent in 2010 to 2.94 percent in 2020, according to data recently released by the Census Bureau showing how many square miles of land in each state was urbanized as of 2020. This can be compared with 2010 data and the total land area of each state to calculate what percentage had been urbanized in each of the two years.

Click image to download a 15.0-MB PDF of this map distinguishing urban from rural areas in 2020.

One reason why the growth was so small was that the Census Bureau redefined urban; under the old definition, any community of 2,500 people was urban; under the new definition, communities had to have 5,000 people or 2,000 residences. However, this only makes a small difference — perhaps 0.1 percent — because such communities are, by definition, small. Continue reading

The Sovietization of Oregon

A sweeping new housing bill is prancing its way through the Oregon legislature in the name of affordable housing. The bill would greatly reduce the rights of Oregon residents to have a say in the future of their neighborhoods. Instead, it would direct the state’s Office of Economic Analysis to set housing targets for all cities in the state with more than 10,000 residents, and those cities would have six to eight years to meet those targets no matter what the cost.

If House Bill 2889 passes, there may a place for you to live in Oregon as long as you don’t mind living in a tiny apartment in a place like this. Despite promises of affordability, it won’t be cheap unless it is subsidized: 537-square-foot apartments in this building rent for $1,425 a month. Photo from GBD.

When Oregon first passed its land-use regulations back in the 1970s, citizen involvement was the number one goal. Now, anyone who doesn’t think a giant apartment building should be built next their house is a NIMBY and probably a racist and should be ignored. Continue reading

The Housing Plot

Oregon’s new governor, Tina Kotek, has made housing her top priority and has proposed a number of unrealistic and idiotic remedies to high housing costs and homelessness. For one, she wants spend $54 million to house 1,200 people for one year. That’s $4,000 a month per person. Of course, a lot of that is probably going to go into various housing bureaucracies.

Someone’s idea of affordable housing Portland, because everyone knows that people move out West so they can live in a cramped apartment.

Kotek’s long-term goal is to see 36,000 housing units built per year in Oregon, which five times more than has recently been built. The state has not built 36,000 housing units for 50 years, which by an extraordinary coincidence is when the legislature created the state’s land-use planning process that restricts rural development. Continue reading

Another Problem Caused by High Housing Prices

High housing prices induced by state and local anti-sprawl regulations are the main cause of growing wealth inequality, contributed to homelessness, and forced hundreds of thousands of people to move from beautiful but highly regulated states such as California to more affordable but frankly bleaker states such as Texas. Now we can also blame recent labor shortages on high home prices.

An analysis published last week found that people of all ages responded to the pandemic by leaving the labor force, but most of them returned, and the ones who did not were almost all in the 60-and-above age classes. Moreover, the ones who didn’t return to work were mainly from states where land-use regulation has pushed up housing prices. Continue reading

The Libertarian Case for Single-Family Homes

After spending more than 25 years opposing central planners who want to densify cities, I’ve been dismayed to find I also have to oppose people who claim to support free markets who want to abolish single-family zoning. I’ve made the best case I can for single-family housing in an article in Liberty Unbound, the on-line version of what was once Liberty magazine.

My argument is simple. Around 80 percent of Americans want to live in single-family homes, but most urban planners think that well over 20 percent — some plans even call for more than 50 percent — should live in apartments. Any policy that reduces the supply of single-family homes in order to increase the supply of apartments therefore supports the goals of the central planners, and true libertarians should oppose such policies as they undermine consumer preferences. Continue reading

Don’t Bunch Up

“One of the first things you learn in the Army,” wrote Stephen Ambrose after 9/11, is “don’t bunch up,” as dense groups make “tempting targets.” The once-feared Russian army is still learning this lesson.

“After strikes [by Ukraine] on large ammunition and fuel depots, the depots
were being dispersed in order to avoid a large loss of materiel in the event of strikes,” thus reducing losses, wrote one Russian. Yet the army failed to disperse personnel, and a New Years Day strike by Ukrainian HIMARS missiles on a single building killed hundreds of soldiers. Apparently, the Russian army had not only brought those soldiers to the building, it also stored ammunition there, making the destruction that much worse. Continue reading