Obamacare Pseudoscience

Last week, the Antiplanner noted in passing a study that found that making people live in “walkable neighborhood” won’t make them any healthier. Since then the Antiplanner has encountered another research paper that found that “the effects of density and block size on total walking and physical activity are modest to non-existent, if not contrapositive.” It seems that anyone who looks at the relationship between urban design and health, other than committed smart-growth advocates, finds that there is no relationship.

So it is disappointing, but not surprising, that President Obama’s recently released National Prevention Strategy–which resulted from the so-called Obamacare legislation–focuses on redesigning the built environment. The Active Living portion of the strategy calls for “community design and development that supports physical activity. Sidewalks, adequate lighting, and traffic slowing devices (e.g., modern roundabouts) improve the walkability of communities and promote physical activity. Increasing access to public transportation helps people maintain active lifestyles. People are also more likely to use active modes of transportation (e.g., walking, biking) for their daily activities when homes, workplaces, stores, schools, health care facilities, and other community services are located within close proximity and neighborhoods are perceived as safe.”
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Although the Strategy includes footnotes for each of these claims, they only reference other publications recommending changes in the built environment–some of which were written by advocacy groups such as the Surface Transportation Policy Project–and not actual research showing that this is a worthwhile or cost-effective strategy. The Antiplanner is not an expert on health care, but if the rest of Obama’s health care package is as “scientific” as this, it appears we have turned our entire medical system to Lysenkoists. Next time you see a doctor, don’t be surprised if he or she gives you a prescription based on the latest fad (or campaign contribution) rather than the latest research.

Food Deserts Don’t Make You Fat

Among the wacky ideas held by many urban planners is the notion that “food deserts”–that is, areas of cities without supermarkets–contribute to obesity. According to this theory, people who lack access to supermarkets eat many unhealthy meals at fast food restaurants. This reasoning is used to justify subsidies to supermarkets–often financed through TIF–in those areas.

However, the Los Angeles Times reports that a new study from the University of North Carolina Nutrition Transition program finds that merely putting a supermarket in the middle of a food desert won’t change people’s eating habits.

The Antiplanner checked the home page for Barry Popkin, the author of the UNC study. He’s found that the entire world is getting fat, not just those “auto-dependent” Americans. The average body-mass index (BMI for an American six-year-old is 22.2; the average for a six-year-old in China–which has one-sixth as many cars per capita as the United States–is 24.8. So much for the idea that rebuilding America to look more like Europe or Asia will cure us of our obesity. Continue reading

A Different Kind of TIF

The Antiplanner’s visit to Lafayette, Louisiana was highly educational. Among other sights, I saw River Ranch, a very successful New Urban development that (according to local tax activists) was built without any tax subsidies. Although I personally would not want to live there, the development commands high prices even in the recession.

River Ranch Rowhouses start at $375,000 for 2,000 square feet, but owners are asking nearly $600,000 for the 2,800-square-foot corner model shown here. Single-family detached homes for sale include a 2,500-square-foot house for $550,000 and a 4,300-square-foot house for $725,000. Most single-family homes appear to be on fairly small lots. Given Lafayette’s median family incomes of less than $50,000, these homes are hardly affordable, but the development proved to be very successful.

I also learned that Louisiana tax-increment financing (TIF) is quite different than in most other parts of the country. In 1988, the state authorized cities to use property taxes, sales taxes, or hotel occupancy taxes for TIF. But property tax TIFs are limited to that portion of property taxes that are not already obligated to some specific purpose–and most property taxes are so obligated, so most if not all Louisiana TIFs rely on sales and hotel taxes instead.

Also, most, though not all, sales-tax TIFs are in the form of an additional sales tax on top of the existing tax (which is 4 percent for the state and a variable amount, generally around 4 percent, for local governments). TIFs that are on top of, rather than out of, the existing tax do not take money from schools, fire, and other urban services, which eliminates many of the objections to TIFs. (At least some other states that use sales tax TIFs, such as Colorado, also add the tax on top of, rather than out of, the existing tax.)

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California Almost Eliminates TIF Agencies

As a part of the annual budget package, the California legislature approved a bill that would have required city and county redevelopment agencies to either shut down or start making large payments to local school districts. However, Governor Jerry Brown vetoed the budget package, saying it doesn’t go far enough in closing the state’s budget gap.

Brown called for completely eliminating redevelopment agencies as soon as he took office in January. The agencies are primarily funded by tax-increment financing (TIF), which uses property taxes on new development to subsidize that development. California redevelopment agencies currently collect $5.5 billion in property taxes a year. Because some of that money is dedicated to repaying bonds, eliminating the agencies would immediately save the state $2.5 billion, later increasing to $5.5 billion as the bonds are paid off.

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Halting TIF’s Rapid Growth

Tax-increment financing (TIF) costs taxpayers around $10 billion per year and is growing as fast as 10 percent per year, according to a new report, “Crony Capitalism and Social Engineering,” published by the Cato Institute. Though originally created to help renew “blighted” neighborhoods, TIF today is used primarily as an economic development tool for areas that are often far from blighted.

The report argues that TIF does not actually generate economic development. At best, it moves development that would have taken place somewhere else in a community to the TIF district. That means it generates no net tax revenues, so the TIF district effectively takes taxes from schools and other tax entities. At worst, TIF actually slows economic development, both by putting a larger burden on taxpayers and by discouraging other developers from making investments unless they are also supported by TIF.

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Memphis Blues

The Antiplanner has never visited Memphis, so when I was watching a video of the flooding in Memphis, I was surprised to see a huge pyramid. “Looks like a government boondoggle to me,” I said.

Flickr photo by Exothermic.

Sure enough. The Pyramid Arena opened in 1991 after being built at a cost of $65 million which was “publicly financed” by the city of Memphis and Shelby County. It is supposedly the sixth-largest pyramid in the world. Significantly, four of the five larger pyramids (all in Egypt) were also government boondoggles, the only exception being the Luxor Hotel in Las Vegas. “Though it was a controversial architectural undertaking at the time,” says one web site, “most Memphians have come to accept, if not appreciate, the Pyramid.”

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Whitest City Gets Whiter

Portland should change its motto from “the city that works” to “the city that’s white.” Already the whitest big city in America in 2000, the city has gotten whiter still as poor people have been pushed from the inner city into the suburbs, as shown in this stunning series of maps.

The Antiplanner has covered this issue before, but it is worth repeating, partly because of The Oregonian‘s excellent coverage yesterday and partly because of what The Oregonian didn’t say. As Portland’s only daily paper pointed out, the city did little to help low-income minorities and did many things that hurt.

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Reining in the Tax-Gobbling Menace

Rahm Emanuel, the newly elected fiscally conservative mayor of Chicago, wants to “overhaul” that city’s tax-increment financing program, which he says “morphed from a tool for blighted economic communities into an all-purpose vehicle.” TIF was first used in Chicago by Mayor Harold Washington in the 1980s, whose goal was to help blighted neighborhoods.

Critics say that the second Mayor Daley, however, used TIF as a “private slush fund” to reward developers and punish disobedient aldermen. Chicago’s 180 TIF districts cover nearly a third of the city and siphon $500 million a year away from schools and other programs.

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Ending Urban Redevelopment

Despite pressure from cities, Jerry Brown stands firm in his proposal to end redevelopment agencies, a plan he says will immediately save the state $1.7 billion a year, and more than double that after 2012.


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Meanwhile, the Idaho Freedom Foundation publishes a report proposing to eliminate urban renewal in that state. Urban-renewal agencies in Idaho collect more than $50 million in property taxes that could otherwise go to schools and other agencies. The big savings will be in stopping the growth in urban-renewal districts, which Idaho cities are creating at the rate of five per year.

Spend It While You’ve Got It

Last week, California Governor Jerry Brown said that the state’s financial problems are so bad that it should end urban-renewal subsidies. So the state’s urban-renewal agencies have selflessly stepped up and turned over surplus funds to the state to help it solve its financial problems.

Just kidding. Instead, redevelopment agencies all over the state have decided to blow their budgets by committing as much of their funds as possible before the state can take control.
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This is no surprise and it shouldn’t dampen efforts to revoke urban-renewal powers. Because most of today’s urban-renewal tax revenues are dedicated to paying off urban-renewal bonds, the greatest benefit from ending urban renewal will be in stopping the sale of any further bonds.