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Maryland DOT Cooked the Books

By | | Transportation
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You may want to sit down for this, but it is finally becoming obvious to everyone that the Maryland Department of Transportation and its consultants overestimated ridership on the proposed Purple light-rail line. Even the pro-Purple Line Washington Post is skeptical of the numbers. Of course, this is only after Governor Hogan appears to have signed off on the line.

As the Antiplanner pointed out in a review of the proposed low-capacity rail line, the projected first-year ridership of 58,800 people per weekday is more than any single light-rail line outside of Los Angeles and Boston–and rail lines in those cities serve centers with far more jobs than are found on the entire Purple Line. The line that is most comparable to the 16-mile Purple Line is New Jersey’s 17-mile Hudson-Bergen line, which serves an area whose population density is four times greater and has far more jobs than that along the Purple Line, yet the Hudson-Bergen line carries just 44,000 riders per weekday (p. 9). The Antiplanner also pointed out that light-rail planners almost always overestimate ridership, and Maryland in particular has a poor track record with its lines in Baltimore (p. 8).

Hogan’s Secretary of Transportation, Peter Rahn, apparently didn’t read the Antiplanner’s report, as he told the Post that he was “comfortable” with the numbers because “the FTA was involved, and they were acceptable to them.” Of course, the FTA rarely questions any numbers given to them by transit agencies. What Rahn was really doing, of course, was shifting the blame to someone else for not doing the job he should have done.

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2014 Commuting Data

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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In 1960, 12.1 percent of American workers went to work by transit, which was then largely privately owned. Despite (or because of) public takeover of almost every transit system in the country, transit’s share steadily declined to 4.7 percent in 2000. Then, in 2010, it crept up to 4.9 percent. The 2014 American Community Survey found that it has increased still further to 5.2 percent.

Since 2000, the increase in transit’s share has come at the expense of carpooling, which fell from 12.6 percent to 9.2 percent in 2014. Biking and walking also fell slightly from 3.4 to 3.3 percent. Driving alone, however, grew from 73.2 to 76.5 percent. So the increase in transit’s share did not translate to a reduction in the number of cars on the road. Indeed, using census carpool data and assuming that “5- or 6-person carpools” have an average of 5.5 people and “7-or-more-person carpools” have 7 people, there were 104.2 million cars commuting to work in 2000, 110.8 million in 2010, and 117.6 million in 2014.

One intriguing table (B08141) shows commuting data by the number of cars in the household. Nationally, about 4.5 percent of workers live in households with no cars. Of these, about 41.5 percent took transit to work, 20.4 percent drove alone, and 11.3 percent carpooled.

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Volkwagen’s Disgrace

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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The Environmental Protection Agency says Volkswagen programmed the emissions control systems on 482,000 cars it sold in the U.S. to work only when they were being tested by air quality regulators. Included are Diesel versions of the Jetta, Golf, Passat, Beetle, and Audi A3 sold between 2009 and 2015. When they weren’t being tested, the cars got better fuel mileage but spewed nearly 40 times more nitrogen oxides into the air. (There’s no reports that other pollutants increased.) Far from denying the accusation, Volkswagen has apologized and halted sales of the offending cars.

Volkswagen (which also makes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, and several other brands that are not sold in the U.S.) had hopes of dramatically increasing its market share in the United States. But this news is a black mark on the company, both from a public relations view and a penalty view, as fines could be as high as $18 billion. As one industry observer says, “this is a disaster of monumental proportions” for the company, whose share price has fallen more than 20 percent since the EPA announcement.

While the Antiplanner has admired Volkswagen for its pioneering work with self-driving cars, the truly sad part is that this may perpetuate American resistance to Diesel power. Based on research by MIT scientists, it is likely that three simple technologies will allow auto manufacturers to cost-effectively meet Obama’s 54.5 mpg target by 2025: streamlining, use of aluminum in place of steel (carbon does even better but is far more costly), and Diesel engines, which are popular in Europe but not so well regarded here. While Diesels aren’t absolutely critical to meeting the fuel-economy targets, they are more cost-effective than most alternatives.

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Congressional Update

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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The law that authorizes the federal government to collect gas taxes and spend them on highways and transit last expired in July. Normally, Congress extends the law for six years, but it is currently gridlocked and so in July it extended it through the end of October.

The Senate offered a six-year bill, but only had enough money to fund it for three years. Lacking a similar bill, the House passed the three-month extension and the Senate went along.

Now, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is rumored to have a six-year bill, or possibly a three-year bill. A minor stumbling block is that Republicans were proposing to cut spending for bicycles, which left Democrats incensed. A bigger stumbling block is that there is still no consensus about where the money is going to come from to cover the $12 billion to $15 billion annual deficits in the bill, as Congress is not willing to either raise gas taxes or reduce spending.

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Union Pacific Plays Hardball

By | | Transportation
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The big news in the railroad industry is that no one expects the railroads can meet the Congressionally imposed December 31 deadline to install positive train control, yet Congress has so far been unwilling to extend the deadline. Unless it does so, Union Pacific says it will stop allowing any passenger trains on its rails starting January 1. That means an end to many Amtrak trains as well as some commuter trains in California, Illinois, and elsewhere.

Positive train control would force trains to stop to prevent collisions if the train driver failed to act. Congress passed this law in 2008 after a horrific crash between a commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in Los Angeles. The commuter train operator was apparently text messaging and missed a red light, resulting in the crash. The law requires the use of positive train control on all rail lines that carry passenger trains and/or toxic gases.

Unfortunately, says transportation expert Steve Ditmeyer, the problems that beset the railroads are partly their own fault. Ditmeyer points out that Burlington Northern installed positive train control on 250 miles of its track in the late 1980s and found that, if positive train control were designed to completely replace existing signal technologies, the costs would be partly offset by the reduction in signal costs while the benefits would not only include safety but a 25 percent increase in the capacity of single-track rail lines. The result was a three-to-one benefit-cost ratio. Unfortunately, rather than installing the technology over its entire railroads, a new BN president decided to focus his attention on merging with the Santa Fe.

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Back in the Air Again

By | | Housekeeping, Transportation, Urban areas
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The Antiplanner is headed to Albuquerque today to speak to the Rio Grande Foundation about the Is it fair? From a coaching standpoint, probably not. buy cialis pharmacy Betrayal, loyalty, and the trials and tribulations levitra overnight shipping of a father and 2 sons who are going through the same painful experience. Men suffering from this problem normally hide their medical condition from their relatives on account of humiliation and embarrassment. viagra cialis generic The second half respitecaresa.org canadian viagra generic of this notion has to do with erectile dysfunction, do not wait and certainly don’t be depressed. href=”http://www.riograndefoundation.org/content/randal-otoole-luncheon-albuquerques-transportation-future”>future of Albuquerque transportation. If you are in the area, I hope to see you there.

More Ridiculous Rail Projects

By | | Transportation
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Arizona has just published a draft environmental impact statement for a proposed moderate-speed (80-120 mph) passenger train between Phoenix and Tucson. The 116-mile route is projected to cost $4.2 billion to $8.4 billion depending on the route. At the low end of this range, the cost per mile would exceed $36 million, which should easily be enough to add four new lanes to the existing freeway (not that it needs them).

Louisiana wants to spend a mere $260 million for a so-called commuter train between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Since then-state governor Bobby Jindal vetoed the idea of spending $500 million on a moderate-speed train in 2009, the new proposal is for a train whose top speed over the 80-mile route would be 79-mph. Initially, as few as one train per day would go each way, which pretty much make the idea a complete joke. Despite this, the idea is popular: at a recent forum for gubernatorial candidates, most candidates agreed that the state’s infrastructure was crumbling and they supported the idea of building more infrastructure that could crumble in the future.

Massachusetts officials are once again talking about connecting Boston’s North train station (which sends all-important trains to Portland, Maine) with its South Station. The connection, which would cover less than 3 miles, is estimated to cost $2 billion to $4 billion.
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Self-Driving Cars Superior to Light Rail in Canberra

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Canberra, Australia’s capital, is considering spending close to $1 billion building a light-rail line. But a new study by computer programmer Kent Fitch finds that shared, self-driving cars make a lot more sense.

Where light rail would lose money, a fleet of shared, self-driving cars could earn a profit. Where light rail would serve just one corridor, self-driving cars would serve the entire urban area. Where light rail would require a massive expenditure on new infrastructure, self-driving cars would use existing infrastructure. While light-rail would require people to walk to stations and wait for a railcar, more than 96 percent of self-driving car patrons would have to wait less than a minute for a car to meet them at their door.

Fitch observes that Canberra, being entirely a twentieth-century city, is simply not designed for public transit, which is why ridership on the city’s stagnant or declining. When a city is too decentralized for “medium-box” transit like buses, the solution is not to go to “big-box” transit, which only works if a lot of people want to go from point A to point B at the same time. Instead, the solution is smaller-box transit, such as shared cars.

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Oregon Mileage-Based Fee Update

By | | Transportation
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As noted here a couple of months ago, the Antiplanner volunteered to take part in Oregon’s mileage-based user fee experiment. I promised an update on the program, but so far all I can say is that it seems somewhat disorganized.

Since the state was only accepting 5,000 volunteers, I signed up almost as soon as the web site began accepting applicants on July 1. It turns out I needn’t have rushed: after more than a month, only 700 people had volunteered.

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Metro Admits Light Rail Is Slow

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Portland’s regional planning agency, Metro, is proposing a “faster transit line to Gresham.” Gresham happens to be the terminus for Portland’s first light-rail line, which opened 29 years ago. But the “faster-transit” line will use buses, not rail.

Before the Gresham light-rail line opened, Portland’s transit agency, TriMet, operated express buses between downtown Portland and Hollywood, Gateway, Gresham, and other neighborhoods along the rail corridor. All of these were cancelled when the light-rail opened, even though the busses were faster than the trains. This is one reason why Portland transit ridership plummeted during the 1980s.

In proposing a faster-transit line to Gresham, is Metro tacitly admitting that light rail was a mistake? Only indirectly. The bus routes is is proposing won’t be express buses but bus-rapid transit, and as such probably will be a little slower than the light rail, at least between downtown Portland and Gresham. They’ll just be faster than the existing conventional bus service.

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