NYers Say They’ll Use Transit Less or Not at All

As a result of the pandemic, 44 percent of New York City residents expect to “avoid public transit entirely” after stay-at-home orders end. Since, in 2018, 56 percent of New Yorkers rode transit to work, it may be that the 44 percent who weren’t riding transit are the ones who say they won’t ride it in the future.

However, another 31.5 percent say they expect to use transit less. Just 18.5 percent say they expect to use transit as much as they did before the pandemic. If people do what they say they are going to do, New York City transit is going to lose a lot of riders. The survey also found that 5.5 percent say they expect to work at home, which is just 1 percentage point more than the 4.5 percent of New Yorkers who worked at home in 2018.
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Surveys are, at best, a first approximation of future behavior. Tomorrow’s Antiplanner policy brief will present my projections of transportation in the first year or two after the pandemic. They will rely less on what people say they are going to do and more on what we have learned during the pandemic. I’ll be interested in your comments.

Democrats Propose $15.75B More for Transit

House Democrats have proposed a $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill that includes $15.75 billion for transit, $15.0 billion for highways, as well as more for Amtrak. Normally, Congress gives about $12.5 billion to transit agencies; this year, it has already tripled that and this bill would more than quadruple it.

I understand that some transit agencies are hurting because the local tax revenues they depend on have declined. But most of them have also cut service, which should have cut their costs. Everyone in the private sector is in financial pain; why should transit be exempt?
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Democrats say this bill is needed to deal with the highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression. But, unlike in the Depression, all of this unemployment is self-inflicted and it’s not going to be fixed by handing out funny money. The Democrats’ real goals appear to be to reward the public employee unions that support them even as they punish the private sector by keeping the economy shut down long enough to make it completely dependent on the government.

Traffic Fatalities in 2019 and 2020

Traffic fatalities declined by 1.2 percent in 2019 despite a 0.9 percent increase in driving. Preliminary data released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration indicates that pedestrian deaths declined by 2 percent and cyclist deaths by 3 percent. The only increase was from accidents involving heavy trucks.

You might think that the great decrease in travel in 2020 would result in a parallel decrease in traffic fatalities. But Massachusetts reports that fatalities have slightly increased despite a 50 percent decrease in driving. The state had 28 fatalities in April 2020 compared with 27 in April 2019. Of course, that’s a small sample compared with the nation as a whole.

The state didn’t say why it thought fatalities hadn’t declined. But it appears that some drivers have responded to the reduction in congestion by driving well above speed limits. Nebraska has cited 64 percent more drivers for speeding above 100 mph since March 18 than the same period in 2019. Utah reports numerous people driving 30 mph above posted speed limits. More data will be needed to find out of Massachusett’s experience is the exception or the rule and whether speeding is the cause of increased fatality rates.

COVID-19 Reduces March Ridership by 41.5%

It will come as absolutely no surprise to anyone that transit ridership in March 2020 was well below March 2019. April’s will be even lower, but for now we have just the data for March released earlier this week by the Federal Transit Administration.

Those data show that overall rail ridership declined by 46 percent while total bus ridership fell by 38 percent. Among the nation’s largest urban areas, the declines ranged from just 8 percent in Oklahoma City to 54 percent in Washington, DC. At the lower end of the range, Richmond — just a few miles from Washington — saw just a 12 percent drop; Raleigh was 18 percent; and San Antonio was 19 percent. At the upper end of the range, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Memphis, New Orleans, New York, San Francisco-Oakland, and Seattle all lost between 40 and 47 percent of their riders. Continue reading

Shut Down Public Transit Now!

An op-ed in InsideSources argues that public transit should be shut down as it is a major source of viral infections. No one reading this will be surprised that the Antiplanner wrote the op-ed, but the Antiplanner isn’t the only one who thinks so.

Writing in yesterday’s USA Today, University of Tennessee law professor Glen Harlan Reynolds points out that “mass transit kills.” I know some commenters on this blog point out that New York subways didn’t have to be as deadly as they were, but just two months ago people didn’t know enough about the virus to know how to protect themselves, with some experts (relying on misinformation from China) even arguing that masks could do more harm than good. Since each infectious disease is different, the safest course is to avoid public transportation.

New York City shut down its subways yesterday morning for the first time in its history. The goal is to give crews a chance to disinfect subway cars and stations and open them up again, but just overnight may not be enough as cars can quickly become reinfected every morning. Continue reading

What Happens After the Pandemic?

Everyone everywhere is asking how the pandemic will change their business, and transportation agencies are no exception. What do you think?

David Zipper, writing for CityLab, wonders if commuter-train ridership will return after the pandemic. It’s currently down as much as 97 percent in some cities.

Bus ridership hasn’t declined as much as rail — an indication that most rail riders are white-collar workers who can work at home but most bus riders are not — but it’s still down 60 to 70 percent. But transit agency officials everywhere wonder if they will get back the riders they have lost when the pandemic is over. Continue reading

The Metropolitan Transmission Authority

“The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is now the Metropolitan Transmission Authority,” an MTA subway conductor told CBS News. “They are transporting this virus.” (The video with this statement is on Huffington Post.)

That’s been true for awhile, but the problem now is that thousands of homeless people have discovered the comforts of riding subways empty of commuters and other regular riders. The MTA says it has lost 95 percent of its riders but is still providing 25 percent of regular subway service for “essential workers.” However, those essential workers have to step around homeless people and their carts of belongings. Continue reading

Expanding Transit’s Mission (& Subsidies)

Due to stay-at-home orders, many small transit agencies that focused on providing transportation for elderly and disabled people are carrying hardly any riders anymore. So, to justify the subsidies they received under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, they are getting into a new business: grocery delivery. They are doing so with backing from the Federal Transit Administration, which has written rules that allow agencies wide discretion for how they use CARES funds.

For example, Island Transit, on Whidbey Island, Washington, is offering free delivery service. “Offering free delivery service for essential items is just another way to fulfill our mission,” says the agency’s executive director.

Apparently, their mission is to take jobs and customers away from existing businesses. Numerous companies already offer grocery delivery, including start-ups like Instacart, Shipt, Peapod, Fresh Direct, and Boxed as well as existing supermarkets such as Walmart, Safeway, and Whole Foods (via Amazon Fresh). On Whidbey Island, for example, on-line shoppers can get deliveries from Instacart, Bailey’s Corner Store, Whidbey Island Seafood, Blackberry Moon, and something run by local high-school entrepreneurs called Whidbey Deliveries. Continue reading

Anti-Auto Nuts Continue to Act Nutty

Evidence is mounting that urban transit has been one of the main spreaders of COVID-19. New York governor Andrew Cuomo says the virus can survive for days on transit seats and metal surfaces. The head of New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority was infected by the virus and the head of New Jersey Transit actually died from it.

In the face of this evidence, anti-auto advocates have given up on their efforts to get people out of their cars and onto transit. As a Huffington Post headline reads, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Forcing Cities To Rethink Public Transportation.”

Just kidding. In fact, despite the headline, the story goes on to tell how anti-auto politicians are using the pandemic to somehow argue that more people should be discouraged from driving. Continue reading

New Virus Research from China

A recent paper from China finds that the vast majority of public transmissions of COVID-19 in that country took place on various modes of mass transportation. The study examined thousands of cases of virus and traced them to 318 different outbreaks, thereby showing where people were most likely to contract the disease.

Most of the transmissions took place in people’s homes from family members or other relatives. Outside of homes, more than two out of three outbreaks were due to transport, which the paper defines to include “train, private car, high-speed rail, bus, passenger plane, taxi, cruise ship, etc.” However, beyond this statement, the paper focuses exclusively on mass transport, not private cars.

I emailed one of the co-authors of the paper, Yuguo Li, asking whether they had detected any virus transmissions in private automobiles. He wrote back saying they had not, though he admitted that some of the infections that they attributed to being in homes might have taken place in a private car. But the outbreaks attributed by the paper to “transport” were all forms of mass transportation such as planes, trains, and urban transit. Continue reading