An op-ed in InsideSources argues that public transit should be shut down as it is a major source of viral infections. No one reading this will be surprised that the Antiplanner wrote the op-ed, but the Antiplanner isn’t the only one who thinks so.
Writing in yesterday’s USA Today, University of Tennessee law professor Glen Harlan Reynolds points out that “mass transit kills.” I know some commenters on this blog point out that New York subways didn’t have to be as deadly as they were, but just two months ago people didn’t know enough about the virus to know how to protect themselves, with some experts (relying on misinformation from China) even arguing that masks could do more harm than good. Since each infectious disease is different, the safest course is to avoid public transportation.
New York City shut down its subways yesterday morning for the first time in its history. The goal is to give crews a chance to disinfect subway cars and stations and open them up again, but just overnight may not be enough as cars can quickly become reinfected every morning.
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Even some MTA workers say they would have been better off if the system had shut down in March, before thousands of them caught the virus and, so far, nearly 100 died from it. Some cities have replaced their transit systems with subsidies to Uber & Lyft riders, which in some places would actually save money even before the pandemic.
Contrary to my friend, Jarrett Walker, transit is not vital to urban life (at least, not outside of New York). Once people realize that, we can start having a serious discussion about the role of transit now and in the future.
Jarrett Walker was arguing it would only save money to replace transit with Uber if you could lay off/furlough transit employees but you cant do that because of the CARE act. Well who’s fault is that? Transit is part of these peoples religion they will not do anything that hurts its component sacraments(hurt Union employees)
Forget about Uber. Traffic is so low right now give these essential workers rental cars.
“ Deaths in long-term care facilities account for 27 percent of all deaths in the 23 states that report deaths.” “That number is an undercount since not all states are currently reporting such data.” [https://www.kff.org/medicaid/press-release/more-than-10000-people-in-long-term-care-facilities-have-died-due-to-covid-19/]
Various other reports show it’s 60% in WA, 75% in NH, 80% in PA, 40% in IL, 90% in CT, 81% in MN.
Who will call for wholesale shutting down long term care facilities?
“with some experts (relying on misinformation from China) even arguing that masks could do more harm than good.”
Enough with the masks. They are ineffective against COVID. They wouldn’t have helped in the packed NYC subways.
But, yeah, shutdown transit. Not going to need it with the highest unemployment rate in history.
Yes, transit is vital to urban life. This is not arguable, because urban life is highly valued by the human race. Rural areas don’t have any moral superiority to urban dwellers, though the latter so far seem to have more tolerance for tin-pot dictators like Cuomo and DeBlasio than I would like. There is no point in the The Antiplanner trying to argue about this, since we have different values on this topic. Not worth the time.
Turns out there ARE technical fixes to “enclosed spaces” problem. Israeli scientists are developing antiviral nano-particle mixtures that may last several months when applied to heavily used surfaces https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-hope-their-nanomaterial-surface-coatings-will-help-battle-covid-19/.
Several U.S. companies are developing “Far-UVC” (222nm) lamps that kill all sorts of pathogens, including viruses http://www.sterilray.com, https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-ultraviolet-airborne-1.44287805, and others.
I expect very rapid adoption of these and other technologies to transit vehicles and stations, but hopefully to inside public venues such as movie theaters, restaurants, office buildings, and the like.
Right wing ideologues like The Antiplanner, Joel Kotkin, Wendell Cox, Glenn Reynolds, Brad Templeton, etc. have been predicting the pending demise of cities for a long time now, including the last time after 9/11. Well, NYC grew substantially after that. If some people “flee” the city after CV19, that only means housing prices should drop somewhat, allowing others to replace the chickenshits who leave. It would also help if NYC was in competent hands, as it was when Rudy was mayor. Rudy, run again!
So, no, transit will not be shut down. I expect transit ridership to return within the next two to three years, and hopefully substantially increase after sufficient street space is repatriated from cars to people https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2020/04/coronavirus-city-street-public-transit-bike-lanes-covid-19/609190. While most of the health security theater actions will quickly fade particularly as the highly useful technical fixes are made, I hope repatriating street space from cars to people is a major change in urban life that will “stick.”
First, the pleasantries. This meticulously altered comic summarizes my reaction to reading the comments section.
Now, business.
Yet again, msetty the yapping chihuahua appears to offer his misguided opinion on a topic he does not understand, and yet again in his eagerness he makes a mess where he stands. It is now my job to hold his face to the carpet and tell him: No!
The most egregious errors occur at the start – let us examine the first two sentences in order. Here they are listed individually to help the reader parse the clumsy grammar:
1) Yes, transit is vital to urban life.
2) This is not arguable, because urban life is highly valued by the human race.
I’ll do any “lazy” reader a favor and explain explicitly why these sentences are so mindboggling asinine: the ‘argument’ here is a non-sequitor. The first sentence has nothing to do with the second. “Transit is vital to urban life, because urban life is highly valued by the human race?” In what 7th grade writing class does this constitute a passing grade?
And despite the puppy-dog-eyed pleading of our whimpering pooch, both statements are opinions and are, of course, open to discussion. Other astute readers have already provided reasonable refutations of these facepalmingly poor arguments, but I also offer my two cents:
1) If >>>subsidized<<< transport is vital to urban life, what is the market externality it attempts top fix, that justifies the tax-payers' involvement?
2) If urban life is highly valued by some members of the human race, I am happy for them to foot the bill for their lifestyle choices, but do not pass it along to those of us who prefer knuckle-dragging and cousin-marrying, or whatever behaviors msetty images his "rural" detractors to be engaged in.
This segues to the next point, the disengenous premise that The Antiplanner prefers "rural areas" to urban life. Only Yahweh knows why msetty insists on over-simplifying and strawmanning his opponents' positions, but I am sure it has nothing to do with him being a midwit at the grown-up's table. Out of necessity of completing the argument, but at the risk of putting words in the Randall O'Toole's (PBUH) mouth, the Antiplanner's argument is more along the lines that people are (should be) free to choose where they live, and that governments should stop manipulating the market to coerce individuals into sub-optimal situations. I know that is a lot more words than "urban elites vs. rural retards lmao".
Discussing the next points adequately would also fill a screen, and the rum is starting to warm my belly and lighten my head so I will attempt to finish. While an air-disenfecting machine of some sort (agnostic to the mechanism or how many excimers it lases) could be effective, exactly which bankrupt tranist agency is in a position to afford thousands of them to install onto every transit car in the country? Or will the Fed foot this bill as well? And once installed, how long until some “urban” youth or “mentally ill” transient riding the BART takes a baseball bat or full bladder to it? Then, the university press release barely merits comment- they are trumping up the abilities of their magic paint to get funding from the “Israel Innovation Authority”; exaggerated claims are part and parcel to surviving in academia. No way will this technology be “rapidly adopted”.
The growth and demise of cities is an interesting topic. I am sure cities will do just fine once people realize in a post-Covid world that they can do their work just fine from a laptop anywhere in the country or world, especially areas with more greenery and open spaces and less government intrusion. Of course, we can take a look at historical trends and see that most cities since the 1930’s have, indeed, lost population. Exceptions, of course, are NYC, LA, and a few of the sun-belts. I am sure if we dive deeper into the demographics we would see that native-born americans are in general leaving while minorites or immigrants gather in ethnic enclaves, yada yada. Too much nuance, I know. You win this one, msetty. If someone leaves an urban area, it is solely because they are a chickenshit. Bad dog!
I agree with your last paragraph. Transit will not be shutdown. Despite the best efforts of The Antiplanner and other fiscal conservatives, liberals will employ underhanded tactics and flat-out lie to extend the reach of transit, increasing the size of government and the associated waste and grift. In the end, however, transit waste, while symbolic of ineffiencies endemic to bureaucracy, will probably pale in comparison to other governmental over-reach. We would do well to remember these words from Mother Theresa: “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”
msetty,
If transit is vital to human life and urban life is highly valued by the human race why does most of the United States choose to live in places and in a manner in which they never take transit?
“ urban life is highly valued by the human race“ Wouldn’t property values be a more accurate indicator of what people “value” than supply since demand for a good drives up the cost of that good?