Everyone everywhere is asking how the pandemic will change their business, and transportation agencies are no exception. What do you think?
David Zipper, writing for CityLab, wonders if commuter-train ridership will return after the pandemic. It’s currently down as much as 97 percent in some cities.
Bus ridership hasn’t declined as much as rail — an indication that most rail riders are white-collar workers who can work at home but most bus riders are not — but it’s still down 60 to 70 percent. But transit agency officials everywhere wonder if they will get back the riders they have lost when the pandemic is over.
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In another article in CityLab, a couple of New York University urban planners think they know how transit systems can recover. But there answer amounts to the same-old same-old: spend more tax dollars on transit and try to force land-use changes on cities to make them more transit-friendly. That wasn’t working before the pandemic and it won’t work after.
Another report observes that driving is bouncing back quicker than transit, and hints that may foreshadow the future. I have my own opinions, which is basically that transit will get some of its riders back in the post-pandemic world, but not all of them. But before I write more about it, I’d be interested in learning your ideas.
I’m not very good at predicting the future so I’ll take the safe approach and predict the continuation of trends that have been going on for decades.
Ridership will regress to the mean…meaning it will return to very low from extremely low then it will continue its decades long decline.
Funding will increase, continuing its decades-long trend.
After more than three years of Trump—the best hope we’ve ever had for changing the game—we still have an establishment DOT Sec who announces boondoggles with quotes like, “ “Everywhere I go I bring money, and I’m not going to disappoint today.” [https://apnews.com/f773dcc884ef4910a5a25754d896706f]
If Trump can’t change things, nobody can. Things will return to normal. The mean will be regressed to. The post-pandemic world will look very much like the pre-pandemic world.
I think the move toward telecommuting will accelerate. Many people have learned that their jobs can be done pretty well from home and will want to continue skipping the commute, at least a lot of the time. I also think that as you imply people who can commute other ways will be less likely to take transit. This will have taken the shine off of transit for many people.
Although people did not have a lot of faith in transit officials and their political supporters before the pandemic, Di Blasio’s actions in NYC claiming you could not get sick from the subways, making no effort to clean the cars, etc. will result in a much faster decline than before, even outside of NY.
Their only hope is that the driving services will go bankrupt and force people back into dirty, unsafe, unreliable transit.
Or, based on the dictatorial actions by many governors and mayors, some of them will have no problem ordering people to take mass transit or else.
Zipper’s right to be concerned about commuter rail. It’s heavily dependent on suburban office workers. The biggest thing holding back remote work has been the social stigma.
COVID19’s popped the social stigma. It’s not crazy to think that we could see a long term change where maybe 1/2 of office workers work outside of the office more than half the time.
There’s other stuff but just gossipy speculation at this point.
I live in Toronto, which still has a large proportion of downtown jobs. I think the current crisis is going to embolden planners and city council to double down on density and the war against autos. Traffic is way down, of course, but the Toronto Transit Commission is still running lots and lots of near-empty streetcars and buses, as well as the subway. Already, the city has designated 100 “hot spots” where it’s closed off a lane of traffic to make more room for pedestrians. I doubt the lanes will come back. Real estate listings have plummeted, but hugely-inflated prices, particularly for detached houses, are still about where they were a year ago.
Two decades of job growth has just been erased. The Fed has increased its balance sheet by trillions. WTF do you think will happen?
Predicting the future isnt my thing, if I could I’d play the lottery over and over……
But things we can be certain of
– Transit agencies in bigger cities are facing huge financial burdens.
– The COVID19 crisis has exposed it’s lack of fiscal savings
– The agencies will continue to suffer fiscal hardship struggling to get passengers in a pandemic frightened world. (Even thou most infections were statisically found at home).
– To alleviate it the agencies will no doubt ask for some sort of financial assistance. In other words more subsidies.
In other words, Business as usual
Some transit agencies have suspended fares during the pandemic. I have a bad feeling that is going to be permanent.
Disneyland is somewhat famous for its monorail system but it is less famous for it’s large bus system …
“The transportation system provides free service to guests of the resort and consists of buses, a monorail system, a gondola lift system, watercraft, and parking lot trams. Most of the routes operated by Disney Transport are buses that run along the resort’s public roads maintained by the Reedy Creek Improvement District and private roads.”
[ … ]
Except where monorail or ferry service exists or walking is practical, direct bus service is provided from every hotel to every park and to Disney Springs, as well as between parks. The buses are fare-free for all visitors to Walt Disney World. Bus service to and from parks typically starts 45 minutes before the park opens and ends an hour after the park closes; buses from Disney Springs to the resorts run until 2 a.m. Bus stops are located near park entrances; near Disney Springs’ Town Center entrance; and along roadways inside the resort (for more expansive resorts) or near the resort’s entrance (for smaller resorts).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney_Transport
“The most recent addition [to the monorail] was the Grand Floridian station, which was opened in 1988 along with the resort hotel.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney_World_Monorail_System
No addition to the monorail for 32 years — a strong message.
In my experience the bus system is clean, reliable and goes where you want to go. Guests appear to be happy with the service.
The default transportation to and from the Orlando Airport to WDW is also by bus and is integrated into the airport having its own terminal area with baggage handling and in my experience is pleasant and reliable — in many ways better than some of the airlines.
Disney has voted with its money and everyone involved seems happy.