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Category Archives: Transportation

MTA Credit Rating Drops

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the credit rating for the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority to A. It was two grades higher than that just five months ago. If it falls five more grades, it will be in junk bond territory.

S&P says that it based the downgrade on its assessment of MTA’s preliminary 2019 budget, which calls for spending $32.5 billion on rehabilitation efforts. Although $10 billion of that would come from bond sales, S&P says that MTA lacks the revenues to repay such bonds. If someone doesn’t find a new source of revenues, S&P warns, it will downgrade the agency’s credit rating still further. Lower credit ratings will mean that MTA will have to pay higher interest rates on future debt.

At the end of 2017, MTA’s long-term debt was $38.3 billion, most of which was incurred to address the last maintenance crisis. Since 2017 it has issued about half a billion dollars worth of additional bonds. This doesn’t count another $20 billion in unfunded health-care obligations. Add in $10 billion in planned bond issues for repair and the agency will owe nearly $70 billion. That’s a lot for a system that earns less than $7 billion in annual revenues and spends roughly twice that on operations. Continue reading →

Tampa Petition: Forward into the Past

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Anti-auto activists in Tampa say they have gathered enough signatures to put a measure on November’s ballot increasing sales taxes for Hillsborough County transportation. The news report about the measure claims that 55 percent will be used for roads while 45 percent will be used for transit, but that is only one of the major deceptions behind the measure.

The petition itself lists “improve roads and bridges” as the first goal of the sales tax. But in fact, only a small share of the money would be used to improve (which in transportation parlance means increase the capacity of) roads and none would be used to improve bridges. In fact, the petition specifically states that none of the money can be used to build new roads or bridges or add new lanes to existing roads or bridges. Some money — 14 percent — can be used to improve intersections, increasing their capacity, but that’s it.

The supposed 55-45 split is also wrong. First, it is really only a 54-45 split, as one percent of the money goes to the Hillsborough metropolitan planning organization to do all of its brilliant planning. The remaining 54 percent goes to Hillsborough County and cities within that county (proportional to population), but it won’t all be spent on roads either. In fact, the petition says it can be spent on “roads, bridges, sidewalks, intersections, and public transportation.” Continue reading →

New York Centrally Plans Ride Hailing

By | | Transportation
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Responding in part to the specious claims that ride hailing is increasing urban congestion, New York’s city council voted last week to limit the number of ride-hailing drivers. The council also voted to impose minimum-wage requirements on Uber, Lyft, and other companies even though they contend that their drivers are contractors, not employees.

The Antiplanner is sympathetic to taxi companies who feel their industry has a competitive disadvantage because it is more heavily regulated than Uber and Lyft. I’m not at all sympathetic to the transit industry that gets $50 billion a year in subsidies — that’s around $5 per trip.

Chiropractic for children is painless except when there is an advantage of taking my review here tadalafil india oral jelly. You can orden 50mg viagra even get generous cash for laptop even if it is not working at all. Some people want to indulge in sexual activities but this is a cialis super active completely wrong thinking a normal size of a grape with very little pulp and a big seed. Kamagra 100mg gives desirable results when sexually aroused in 15-30 minutes. best online viagra The solution for taxi drivers is to deregulate the taxis, not to more heavily regulate ride hailing. The minimum-wage requirement is particularly objectionable because, as near as I can tell, minimum-wage laws don’t apply to taxi drivers because they, too, are independent contractors. Continue reading →

Transit Update

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The Antiplanner has corrected a few very minor errors and added some new calculations to the June 2018 ridership spreadsheet. If you downloaded the spreadsheet I posted Wednesday, you probably should redownload it now.

The new calculations include fiscal year ridership totals for 2012 through 2016. Nationally, ridership peaked in 2014, and has declined in every fiscal year since then. Although the nationwide decline since 2014 was just 7.5 percent, declines in many urban areas were much larger: 29% in Memphis; 27% in Charlotte; 26% in Miami; 25% in Albuquerque; 24% in Cleveland; 22% in St. Louis; 21% in Milwaukee, Sacramento, and Virginia Beach; 20% in Los Angeles.

Transit began falling in some of these urban areas, such as Sacramento and Memphis, much earlier than 2014. With the additional fiscal year data, you can track this decline back to 2012. The calendar year data go back to 2002. Continue reading →

Austin Wants High-Dollar Transit

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Austin voters have twice rejected light rail at the polls, so naturally the region’s transit agency, Capital Metro, is eager to try again. Earlier this week, it presented a plan to the Austin city council for eleven transit corridors that could cost $6 billion to $8 billion. As if to underscore the agency’s inability to learn from history, it is calling this plan “Project Connect,” the same name it used for the plan that voters defeated by 57 to 43 in 2014.

While Cap Metro deceptively calls light rail “high-capacity transit,” the Austin American-Statesman more accurately calls it “high-dollar” transit. Light rail was rendered obsolete in 1927 when a company called Twin Coach started producing buses that could move more people for far less money than streetcars or light rail.

Bus or rail, now is not the time for Austin to spend a lot of money on transit. Capital Metro lost 20 percent of its riders between 2012 and 2016, and is down another 2.2 percent in the first six months of 2018. Continue reading →

Transit Death Spiral Continues: June Report

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Nationwide transit ridership was 3.1 percent less in June 2018 than it had been in June 2017. Ridership fell for all major modes of transit, including commuter rail (-2.6%), heavy rail (-2.5%), light rail (-3.3%), and buses (-3.8%). These numbers are from the Federal Transit Administration’s June update to the National Transit Database, which was posted on line yesterday.

June 2018 had one fewer work day than June 2017, which may account for part of the ridership decline. But ridership in the first six months of 2018 was 3.0 percent less than the same months of 2017, and again ridership declined for all major modes of transit.

As usual, the Antiplanner has posted an enhanced spreadsheet that has all of the raw data from the FTA spreadsheet but includes annual totals from 2002 through 2018 in columns GZ through HP, modal totals in rows 2125 through 2131, transit agency totals in rows 2140 through 3139, and urban area totals for the nation’s 200 largest urban areas in rows 3141 through 3340. The same enhancements are included on the “VRM” or vehicle-revenue miles worksheet. Continue reading →

How Do You Define “Viable”?

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Among the many wacky proposals for rail transit in this country is a plan to run commuter trains some 50 miles between Las Cruces, New Mexico (population about 100,000) to El Paso, Texas (population around 700,000). Such a project, if it did anything at all, would be most likely to drain jobs from Las Cruces to El Paso. So it is surprising that the main proponent of the project is a New Mexico transit agency, the South Central Regional Transit District (SCRTD).

SCRTD hired a consultant to do a feasibility study that — surprise! — concluded the train was feasible. Of course, to reach this conclusion, the study had to make some heroic assumptions:

  1. That the federal government would be willing to put up a large share of the capital costs, which it doesn’t want to do.
  2. That the state government would also be willing to contribute to the capital costs, which it doesn’t want to do.
  3. That BNSF would be willing to host commuter trains on its rail line, which it doesn’t want to do.
  4. That surveys of people who say they would be happy to ride the train (without telling them about the fares) really mean anything.
  5. That someone will be willing to subsidize most of the $15 to $20 cost per trip, when anyone who already owns a car could drive the distance for well under half that amount.

Continue reading →

Demonizing Ride Hailing

By | | Transportation
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Lyft and Uber are increasing traffic by 180 percent, claims an arithmetically challenged study of ride hailing. As a result, reports NPR, ride hailing is adding to congestion. Moreover, says the study itself, ride hailing is inequitable and less sustainable than transit.

The study does have some useful numbers, but it was written by Bruce Schaller, a long-time transit advocate who obviously has a bone to pick about ride hailing. In reality, the study offers no real evidence that ride hailing is increasing congestion or that it is otherwise a serious problem for anyone but taxi companies and transit agencies. For them, it is a serious problem.

Schaller calculates that ride hailing grew from 1.90 billion trips in 2016 to 2.61 billion in 2017, for a net growth of 710 million rides. In those same years, transit ridership declined by 255 million rides. So, if only 36 percent of ride-hailing users would otherwise have taken transit, then ride hailing is responsible for 100 percent of the decline in transit ridership. Continue reading →

Music City Star Still Falls Short

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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The Middle Tennessee Regional Transportation Authority reported that ridership on its Music City Star commuter train showed a “substantial increase” in its latest fiscal year (which ended June 30, 2018). The agency claimed that the train carried 269,296 passengers in F.Y. 2018 vs. 258,360 in F.Y. 2017.

The Antiplanner isn’t sure why a 4 percent increase is considered “substantial,” especially since the population of Wilson County, which is served by the train, grew by 3 percent. At least it is bucking the trend of transit ridership decline, but that’s not necessarily a reason to celebrate either.

When the train was planned in 2004, it was projected to carry an average of 1,900 weekday riders in its first year and cost $3 million a year to operate (about $3.6 million in today’s dollars). In fact, more than a decade after it opened, it is still carrying less than 1,200 weekday riders, while its operating costs are at least $5.2 million a year (plus it cost about 40 percent more to start up than anticipated). High costs and low ridership mean the costs per rider are around 130 percent greater than expected. Fares, of course, are not, and covered only 17 percent of operating costs in 2016. Continue reading →

The Consultant Report on Why Seattle’s
Latest Streetcar Line Is Late Is Late

By | | Transportation
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Construction of Seattle’s latest streetcar line is late and over budget, so the mayor halted construction and hired a consultant to find out why. Now the consultant report itself is late.

The city knew that the problem had to do with the fact that construction turned out to be more complicated than the city anticipated. Now the consultant says that figuring out the problem turned out to be more complicated than the consultant anticipated.

Seattle shouldn’t have had to pay a consultant $146,000 to figure out the problem. The problem is simple: streetcars are stupid. They are obsolete technology. When invented in 1888, they averaged 8 mph. Now, after 130 of technological improvements, they average 8 mph. The tracks intrude into the streets, creating problems for other utilities and cyclists. When one breaks down, the others can’t go around it. Continue reading →