Triumph of the Exurb

The amount of money spent on business travel in 2021 was less than half of 2019, according to the Global Business Travel Association. Moreover, it is likely never to fully recover.

Forty percent of Americans who once frequently traveled for business say they never expect to do so again. Photo by Business Travel Panama.

According to a recent survey of Americans who once traveled for business at least three times a year, 40 percent say they never expect to travel for business again and 12 percent say they don’t expect to travel for at least the next year. In France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the share who say they never expect to travel for business again is 50 percent or more. “Business travel will never return to a pre-pandemic normal,” concludes the survey. Continue reading

MBTA Crashes and Burns

The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) is crashing and burning, sometimes literally. An Orange line train caught fire a few weeks ago. A Red Line train ran away out of control. The Orange line and parts of the Green line are in such bad shape that they have been shut down at least until September.

The Orange line in 1978, when it was in a lot better condition than it is today. Photo by Henry Petermann.

The situation is so bad that various think tanks have proposed putting the agency in receivership, which would mean taking control from its highly politicized board of directors. At least one member of Congress from Massachusetts agrees, saying that the federal government should take control. But it’s not clear that federal oversight of DC’s Metro system did much to solve that system’s safety problems a few years ago. Continue reading

Free Transit Means More Violent Crime

Assaults on bus drivers have significantly increased in Albuquerque, as documented by the news story below. Not coincidentally, Albuquerque began offering free buses on January 1, 2022.

Free transit is supposed to promote transportation equity by making it easier for low-income workers to get to their jobs and other economic opportunities. But it is more likely to permanently drive those people away from transit if they don’t feel safe on board buses. Continue reading

Collapse or Evolution?

An article in Salon by anti-capitalist Chris Hedges argues that our civilization is on the verge of collapse. As evidence, he points to the 65 percent decline of the population of St. Louis since 1950.

The city of St. Louis is losing population but the St. Louis metropolitan area is thriving. Photo by David Schwen.

This decline, however, only applies to the city of St. Louis, which is a political entity. The St. Louis metropolitan area, which is an economic unit, has grown by 68 percent in the same time period. Continue reading

Interstates Add Billions to Economy

According to Wikipedia, constructing the Interstate Highway System cost $535 billion in 2020 dollars. Now, three economists from the University of Colorado and Florida State University have calculated the amount of benefits the highway add to our economy.

Interstate highways carry a quarter of all vehicle travel and probably more than a quarter of all heavy truck travel. Photo by Rupert Ganzer.

Their answer was $601.6 billion. Per year. In 2012 dollars, meaning $760 billion in today’s dollars using the GDP deflator. And that’s for freight only; the value of passenger travel is probably at least equal to that. Continue reading

June 2022 Driving Up 0.9% from June 2019

Despite record fuel prices, Americans drove almost 1 percent more miles in June 2022 than they did in June 2019, according to data released on Saturday by the Federal Highway Administration. Driving declined on urban interstate freeways, but it increased on other urban roads as well as all types of rural roads.

See the previous post for sources of Amtrak data and the post before that for sources of data for transit and air travel.

The nationwide average price of regular gasoline climbed from $4.58 a gallon on June 1 to a record $5.02 on June 14. Supposed experts claimed that prices would “stay high for a long time,” but instead they have fallen every day since the 14th, reaching $4.80 at the end of June and $3.90 as of yesterday.

On a miles-per-day basis, Americans drove 1.1 more miles in June than in May and 5.1 percent more in June than in April, when gas prices were 60 to 80 cents a gallon less than in June. This suggests that people are less deterred by high fuel prices than auto opponents would hope.

As noted a few days ago, transit ridership made a leap in June, with average daily ridership being 4.5 percent greater than in May. But since Americans travel almost 100 times as many passenger-miles per year by automobile as by urban transit, a large increase in transit ridership translates to a small decline in driving. That increase in transit ridership may have compensated for the decline in urban interstate driving, but lower fuel prices in July and August will probably lead to an increase in urban driving and a compensatory drop in transit travel.

When compared with June 2019, driving grew the most in Indiana (18%), Florida (16.5%), Connecticut (12.9%), Georgia (11.6%), Louisiana and Texas (each 11.7%). It fell the most short of 2019 miles in the District of Columbia (-19.2%), Delaware (-16.1%), Montana (-11.5%), Oregon (-8.7%), and Washington (-8.5%).

Amtrak Carried 84% of Pre-Pandemic PMs

Amtrak carried 83.6 percent as many passenger-miles in June 2022 as it did in June 2019, according to the monthly performance report it posted yesterday. That’s an increase from 78.5 percent in May.

See yesterday’s Antiplanner for sources of transit and airline data.

Relative to its pre-pandemic numbers, Amtrak passenger-miles have been rising at about 5.5 percent per month. In terms of actual passenger-miles, they have been rising at 20 percent per month. However, much of Amtrak ridership is seasonal and it is normal for June ridership to be much higher than February’s. In 2019, for example, June’s passenger-miles were 125 percent greater than February’s compared with only 107 percent in 2022. Continue reading

Gas Prices Push Transit Ridership Up to 65%

America’s transit systems carried 65.0 percent as many transit riders in June 2022 as in June 2019, according to data released last week by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the first time ridership has exceeded 61 percent of pre-pandemic levels since the pandemic began.

Data are not yet available for Amtrak or driving.

Much of this surge in ridership was due to fuel prices, which reached record levels in mid-June. Now the question is whether transit will be able to keep those riders, as prices have fallen every day since June 16. As of yesterday, average prices are lower than they have been since early March. Continue reading

The Importance of Fare Enforcement

According to the New York City police department, subway crime is up 53 percent so far in 2022 compared with 2021. Since ridership grew by 64 percent in that time period, that means that crime rates per rider have actually fallen, but that doesn’t reassure many people.

This photo was taken by MassDOT in 2010, when the MBTA could say that 2009 crime had reached a 30-year low. Yet FTA data show that, by 2021, the MBTA suffered almost 19 times as many “security events” as in 2009: 94 vs. 5.

Nationwide, Federal Transit Administration data show that, through the end of March 2022, transit crime (not counting suicide) is 44.4 percent more than the same period in 2021. This is almost exactly the same as the increase in ridership, which was 44.9 percent. Former riders who are reluctant to return to transit may be justified in not doing so. Continue reading