Rail Transit Cost Overruns

Rail transit projects typically cost about 40 to 50 percent more than projected, with some projects costing double the original projections and very few costing less than 20 percent more than the projections. The table below shows the projected and actual costs of 56 rail projects (and four bus projects). Most of the data are from a series of Department of Transportation reports, the first of which came out in 1990 (23.5 MB), with updates in 2003 (17.2 MB), 2007 (3.7 MB), 2008 (0.3 MB), 2011 (0.7 MB), 2012 (0.1 MB), and 2013 (0.8 MB).

I added five projects to those listed in these reports. One, the Los Angeles Blue Line, is documented in a 2006 paper by researchers at Northeastern University. All of the numbers in the paper are identical to the numbers in the 2007 DOT report except that the paper also has the Blue Line while the DOT report does not. I presume the methodologies are identical and that the 52 rail projects in the DOT reports and the Northeastern University paper are a representative sample, as the FTA would be unlikely to deliberately bias the sample to projects that went over cost by more than the average.

The other four projects I added were completed since 2009, the date of the last project studied in the DOT papers. I based the data for these projects on FTA New Starts reports and other official documentation. My selection of projects may not be as representative a cross-section of projects completed in that time period as I only picked projects I know about and these may tend to go over cost by more than the average.

Predicted & Actual Construction Costs in Millions

Urban Area	Mode	Route	Year Open	Predicted Cost	Actual Cost	Overrun
Washington	HR	Red & Blue	1986	4,352	7,968	83%
Atlanta	HR	Initial	1987	1,723	2,720	58%
Baltimore	HR	Subway	1987	804	1,289	60%
Miami	AG	Metromover	1988	84	175	108%
Detroit	AG	Peoplemover	1988	144	215	49%
Miami	HR	Metrorail	1988	1,008	1,341	33%
Portland	LR	Eastside	1988	172	266	55%
Sacramento	LR	Initial	1988	165	188	14%
Buffalo	LR	Metro	1989	478	722	51%
San Diego	LR	El Cajon	1989	114	103	-10%
Los Angeles	LR	Blue	1990	561	877	56%
Seattle	TB	DT Tunnel	1990	300	469	56%
San Jose	LR	Guadalupe	1991	258	380	48%
St. Louis	LR	Initial	1993	317	387	22%
Chicago	HR	Southwest	1993	581	502	-14%
Houston	BR	Southwest	1993	96	98	3%
Denver	BR	North I-25	1994	190	228	20%
Miami	AG	Extension	1995	221	228	3%
Baltimore	HR	Hopkins	1995	314	353	13%
San Fran.	HR	Colma	1996	113	180	60%
Dallas	LR	S Oak Cliff	1996	325	360	11%
Baltimore	LR	BWI HV ext.	1997	82	116	42%
San Jose	LR	Tasman West	1997	281	325	16%
Portland	LR	Westside	1998	454	782	72%
Salt Lake	LR	I-15	1999	206	299	45%
Atlanta	HR	North	2000	440	473	8%
Denver	LR	Southwest	2000	149	178	19%
Jacksonville	AG	Skyway	2000	66	106	60%
Pittsburgh	BR	Airport	2000	274	322	17%
St. Louis	LR	St. Clair	2001	256	339	32%
Los Angeles	HR	Red	2002	3,031	4,470	47%
Dallas	LR	N. Central	2002	333	437	31%
San Fran.	HR	SFO	2003	1,283	1,552	21%
Sacramento	LR	South	2003	202	219	8%
Salt Lake	LR	University	2003	189	192	2%
San Fran.	HR	Airport	2003	1,194	1,552	30%
Boston	BR	Piers	2004	398	600	51%
Memphis	SC	Extension	2004	36	58	61%
Minneapolis	LR	Hiawatha	2004	244	697	186%
Pittburgh	LR	Recon	2004	184	385	109%
Portland	LR	Interstate	2004	283	350	24%
Washington	HR	Largo	2004	375	426	14%
San Diego	LR	Mission Vly	2005	387	506	31%
San Juan	HR	Tren Urbano	2005	1,086	2,228	105%
Denver	LR	Southeast	2006	585	851	45%
Newark	LR	Elizabeth I	2006	181	208	15%
New Jersey	LR	H-B 1 & 2	2006	930	1,756	89%
Charlotte	LR	Lynx	2007	331	463	40%
Portland	YR	WES	2008	85	162	91%
San Diego	YR	Sprinter	2008	214	478	124%
Cleveland	BR	Euclid	2008	179	197	10%
Salt Lake	CR	Weber	2008	408	614	50%
Phoenix	LR	East Valley	2008	1,076	1,405	31%
Los Angeles	LR	Gold ext.	2009	760	899	18%
Minneapolis	CR	Northstar	2009	265	309	16%
Seattle	LR	Link	2009	1,858	2,558	38%
Austin	YR	MetroRail	2010	70	140	100%
Denver	LR	West	2012	350	707	102%
Norfolk	LR	Tide	2012	198	320	62%
Minneapolis	LR	Green	2013	581	957	65%
Total				31,821	47,683	50%
1980s				9,044	14,987	66%
1990s				4,296	5,584	30%
2000s				17,281	24,989	45%
2010s				1,199	2,124	77%

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All of these numbers compare the estimated cost based on preliminary engineering at the time the agency proposing the line compared it with various alternatives. For older projects, that stage was called the major investment study; for newer ones, it was called the alternatives analysis. The list only includes new construction. Reconstruction projects and double-tracking of existing lines mostly come in pretty close to the original projected budgets.

I made two minor changes to DOT data. The San Jose Tasman West and St. Louis St. Clair projects were reported by DOT to cost significantly less than the original projected cost, but both of these projects were significantly reduced in length between the original projection and the final project. To account for this, I applied the projected cost per mile to the number of miles actually built. Tasman West was projected to cost $451 million for 12.2 miles; so I estimated the projected cost for the 7.6 miles would have been about $281 million. St. Clair was projected to cost $368 million for 25 miles, but only 17.4 was built so I used $256 million.

The table shows that cost projections have not significantly improved over the last 30 years. While the average overrun in the 2010s may be a bit high due to the projects shown not being a representative sample, it doesn’t seem likely that adding more would greatly improve the results. Four bus projects are included in the table; two of them came in less than 20 percent over projected costs, but the number may be too few to be a representative sample.

Tomorrow I’ll provide data on projected and actual ridership for most of these projects. I’ll also have a link to an Excel spreadsheet with all of these data so you don’t have to copy and paste from the table above.