H+T Not So Efficient

One of the excuses planners have made for their support of densification is that, yes, housing costs are higher in dense areas, but this is more than offset by lower transportation costs. They call this the H+T Affordability Index, but — as the Antiplanner pointed out nearly five years ago — this claim was based solely on hypothetical and, in some cases, obviously inaccurate numbers.

Despite the lack of any real evidence, density advocates managed to persuade lending authorities to loosen mortgage loan criteria for people locating in dense, transit-rich areas. Since people living in such areas supposedly saved a bundle on transportation, they could afford to spend more on a mortgage.

Now a new study has come out that collected ten years of real data from 11,000 families who moved to compact, transit-rich areas. The study found that some people saved money on transportation, but others spent more, and the net overall effect was a wash. “We conclude that the location affordability literature may significantly overstate the promise of cost savings in transit-rich neighborhoods,” say the researchers.

In case of male impotency, these products can professional viagra further deteriorate the condition of the sufferer. In side effects of tadalafil addition, some patients have prominent psychological abnormality and unexplained sexual dysfunction after prostatitis is cured or denied existence of prostatitis. There is no increasing of their returns of purchasing viagra australia the companies but yet they are continually keen to control high numbers. Adsense is just another method of adwords only these days instead of just finding it on along side your Google search you see it on almost all sildenafil viagra de pfizer the sites you visit. The people who did this study — Michael Smart and Nicholas Klein — aren’t some car-loving, transit-hating policy wonks from a right-wing or libertarian think tank. Instead, they are assistant professors of urban planning from Rutgers and Cornell universities. Some of their work looks at how gay housing and transportation preferences differ from non-gay households.

Yet they aren’t afraid to challenge some planning sacred cows. For example, when they asked if it is true that Millennials don’t want to drive as much as previous generations, they found that the reduction in driving was due mainly to the economy. Yes, Millennials who still lived with their parents owned fewer cars, but ones who did not were as likely to own cars as other age groups. “We caution planners to temper their enthusiasm about ‘peak car,'” they concluded, “as this may largely be a manifestation of economic factors that could reverse in coming years.” Which has proven to be true.

In any case, now that the data clearly no longer support so-called “location efficient mortgages,” a number of urban planners now claim that they were always suspicious of that idea. It’s too bad they weren’t willing to challenge it when their colleagues were promoting it five years ago.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

2 Responses to H+T Not So Efficient

  1. LazyReader says:

    Yes housing is more expensive, but they counter that by shrinking typical home sizes, which saves energy costs far in effect of typical automotive use. House size is of course tied to energy consumption as well as efficiency, the amount of energy it takes to climate control (put it simply move heat out of it) increases. As your house increases in area it also increases in VOLUME. A small 2 story house (25×30 feet wide) has a footprint of 750 sq ft, A living area of with an 1,250 sq ft, but has at least 15,000 cubic feet of volume that needs to be cooled or heated (not including basement/attic). Increase the size of the footprint of the house even a bit and the volume doubles or triples from 15,000 cubic feet to as much as 50,000.
    The bigger the house gets the more solar heat gain it encounters as well. An insulated house will still warm up. Townhouses only have 3 exposed surfaces, the roof, the front and the back. A separate house is exposed on all sides. That’s why houses with high ceilings are a marketing ploy for the dumb. Yes a 10 foot christmas tree would be cool, but adding as much as 10,000 cubic feet of heating volume to your house isn’t.
    Breakdown of energy usage in the United States
    19% Commercial
    21% residential
    29% Transportation
    32% Industrial
    But since transportation also includes the products and people engaged in commercial, industrial and living activities we can shut up about transpiration energy usage.
    Transportation energy costs does matter. But the energy sectors mentioned above besides transport, continue to get cleaner and more efficient, our goal is to spearhead that level of energy efficiency among transportation methods. More efficient engines, electric motors, better batteries, traffic management, de-congestion, etc.
    Apart from Wind and solar which receive the bulk of media press coverage. There’s one energy source the media and groups continue to ignore. Geothermal power has the potential to provide a significant share of the Western US electricity needs. And significant portion of the nations energy saving needs. With just One billion dollars a year in research and development towards enhanced Geothermal systems. We already drill as deep as 7 kilometers for petroleum. So drilling that deep for dry Hot rock is no different. Geothermal plant in Chena Springs, Alaska produces electricity at a record low temperature of 160 degrees Fahrenheit. Less hot than a cup of McDonalds coffee. Forbes magazine called it a bad business decision of the year………….now not only is the place running it’s running at a rate of 5 cents per kilowatt far lower than Alaska’s typical energy prices. Besides electricity production, it can be used for home heating or even commercial applications. If you have a basement you notice it’s always warm in the winter and cool in the summer, reality it’s temperature never changes much…..Geothermal is the reason many animals burrow underground to escape the summer heat and winter freeze. A heat pump sends the heated or cold air from your house down a network of tubes buried underground which act as a heat exchanger Warming your house in the winter or cooling it in the summer. Whether it’s your house or an office building, warehouse, highrise, apartment you can save anywhere from 30-60% of your energy bills. Since most of your domestic energy consumption is heating water and your home enormous volume.

  2. MJ says:

    No surprise here. The results merely echo those of another large-scale analysis of location-efficient mortgages from about 15 years ago, which looked at the relationship between location efficiency and default rates using data on the status of FHA-approved mortgages. The result? LEMs increase default rates in the same way that any other low-down payment program would.

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