Subway Ridership Decline Is Accelerating

New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority revealed that August weekend numbers were nearly 9 percent below weekend ridership in August 2017 while weekday ridership dropped 2.5 percent. Since much of New York’s Penn Station was closed in August 2017, leading many riders to find other travel methods to avoid significant delays, the fact that ridership in 2018 was below 2017 shows that the system is in deep trouble. Worse, MTA says that ridership declines appear to be accelerating.

The problem is so bad that 60 Minutes devoted a segment to it yesterday, asking “Why has the New York City subway gone off the rails?” There’s really two possible answers to this question: 1. They haven’t spent the money needed to keep it going; or 2. It simply costs too much to keep it going. The first assumes the money is around but has been squandered on the wrong things (as Republican candidate for governor Marc Molinaro says, “ribbon-cutting projects”) while the second assumes that it is simply impossible to expect taxpayers to pay all of the costs of rehabilitating and maintaining the system.

Everyone from subway riders to politicians would like to believe that the first answer is right. But it is increasingly likely that the second answer is the truth.

New York subways were in a dilapidated condition in the 1980s, but MTA fixed them and they ran pretty well for nearly three decades. MTA borrowed heavily to pay for repairs, however, and much of that debt is still on the MTA’s books. According to the agency’s 2017 financial statement, MTA current long-term debt was more than $40 billion at the end of 2017 (page 86).

The agency spends more than $1.5 billion a year in interest payments alone (page 12). Of course, merely paying the interest doesn’t pay off the debt, and total debt service was $2.8 billion in 2017, which is equal to 17 percent of MTA’s operating budget. Debt has been increasing as the agency borrows more each year than it pays off. This doesn’t even count the $19.5 billion in unfunded pension and health care liabilities (page 84 of the 2017 financial statement).
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The agency spent $2.4 billion on subway maintenance in 2017, but this only scratches the surface of the work that needs to be done. MTA proposes to spend another $37 billion restoring the system over the next 10 years — and admits that even then the rehabilitation work won’t be done. Basically, MTA needs more than $100 billion to pay off its debt, fully fund its retirement system, and repair its infrastructure.

MTA transit president Andy Byford told 60 Minutes he has no idea where the money will come from but mentioned that various politicians have proposed taxing the rich and increasing taxes on auto drivers. Worse, the rehabilitation work can’t be done without delaying more trains, and such delays are one of the main reasons why subway riders are switching to ride-hailing and other forms of travel.

New York’s subway was a technological marvel when it opened 114 years ago. Since then, average subway speeds have not increased; the only improvement to passenger comfort is the addition of air conditioning, which cools the cars but can make platforms unbearably hot; and maintenance and capital costs have exploded. Even in 1904, the subway was only built with public money and then given to a private operator whose lease payments never covered the original cost of construction.

Meanwhile, the subway’s competitors, automobiles, have improved in so many ways: they are faster, safer, more comfortable, and far less expensive than they were in 1904. Maybe it’s time to admit that an early 20th century technology is no longer economically viable in even the most crowded 21st century cities.