Transit ridership in November 2018 was 5.3 percent lower than in the same month of 2017, according to data (7.4-MB Excel spreadsheet) released by the Federal Transit Administration yesterday. Both buses and rail lost more than 5 percent of their riders. These declines are in spite of November having the same number of work days in both years.
The first eleven months of 2018 saw 2.6 percent fewer riders than the same months in 2017. Contrary to claims that bus ridership is declining but rail is not, rail ridership actually declined more in 2018 than bus ridership.
However, it is worth noting that some of the commuter rail numbers are preliminary estimates that don’t look right. Though commuter rail has been doing better than most other modes in previous months, the November report indicates a 15 percent decline from November 2017. Supposedly, Boston commuter ridership fell by 45%, New York’s Metro North, Philadelphia DOT, and commuter lines in Connecticut, south Florida, and San Diego all lost 33 to 35%, and Los Angeles lost 25%. Yet other commuter-rail lines seem unaffected. If these numbers turn out to be in error, I’ll post an update here as soon as possible. Even without commuter rail, heavy rail and light rail both declined, though not by quite as much as bus.
Among the 50 largest urban areas, only nine saw higher ridership in November 2018 than in the previous November. The biggest November declines were in Raleigh (-36.0%), Boston (-18.7%), Sacramento (-15.1%), New Orleans (-11.9%), Phoenix (-11.4%), San Antonio (-12.9%), Cleveland and San Antonio (-10.8% each), St. Louis (-10.7%), Buffalo (-10.6%), Miami (-10.5%), and Kansas City (-10.0%). Except for Boston and Miami, none of these had commuter rail. Raleigh’s fluctuations seem to be due to transit provided by North Carolina State University, not Raleigh’s GoRaleigh transit agency.
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As usual, I’ve posted an enhanced spreadsheet (10.1-MB spreadsheet) that has all of the FTA’s raw data in cells A1 through HD2134. Columns HE through HU have annual totals for 2002 through 2018. Column HV has January-November 2017 for comparison with 2018. Columns HW and HX compare the change from 2017 to 2018 for January through November and November alone.
Rows 2135 through 2142 have totals and totals by major modes, including commuter rail, heavy rail, light rail, streetcars, hybrid rail, and bus. Rows 2150 through 3149 have totals for individual transit agencies. Rows 3151 through 3351 are totals for the 200 largest urban areas (a few of which, such as Ogden and Provo, show zeros because their transit is carried by a transit agency in another urban area, in this case Salt Lake City).
The raw data include numbers for ridership (UPT), vehicle revenue miles (VRM), vehicle revenue hours (VRH), and vehicles operated in maximum service (VOMS). I’ve enhanced the UPT and VRM pages, making it possible to compare changes in service with changes in ridership.
Music to my ears.