Political commentators have observed that Americans have increasingly sorted themselves into Red and Blue areas, with blue dominating the cities, red dominating rural areas, and the suburbs still being a mix sometimes referred to as purple. A new study takes a close look at this sort in Oregon.
As an Associated Press article notes in discussing this study, in 1966, the Democratic Party had a majority of voters in every region of Oregon, yet the state elected a Republican governor who won 33 out of 36 counties. By contrast, in 2018 ruralites were 30 percent more likely to be Republican than urbanites, and the winner of the governorship won only seven counties, namely those that were the most urbanized.
The study itself says changes resulted partly from the decline in federal land timber cutting. This left rural areas with high unemployment and resentment against the urban areas that supported the reduced cutting.
Fundamentally, however, it isn’t urban and rural that causes the divide. It is middle class (meaning college educated with jobs that are based on thinking) versus working class (meaning jobs that are more based on physical labor). The nation has always had far more working class people than middle class people, and that remains true in rural areas. But in urban areas the middle class has grown while the working class has not. This has led to the appearance of an urban-rural divide, but that really just disguises the middle-class/working-class divide.
This can be seen in the paper, which suggests that rural areas in Northwest Oregon are voting more liberal. The paper incorrectly holds out hope that this is a sign that urbanites and ruralites can be reconciled. “Increasing convergence beyond the Metro area in the northwest quadrant may lead to a broader shared vision of Oregon’s future,” says the study.”
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In fact, this change is taking place because middle-class families in the Portland area are being pushed by high housing prices to become exurbanites in seeming rural communities that are still within driving distance from Portland-area jobs. During rush hour, it takes less time to drive 68 miles from the Oregon Coast to Hillsboro, Portland’s western-most suburb, than 33 miles from Hillsboro to Gresham, Portland’s eastern-most suburb. Since Intel and other companies have located thousands of jobs in Hillsboro, many of those workers have located in Northwest Oregon, changing the political complexion of that region.
Similarly, resort communities such as Sun River or Camp Sherman, where I live, are defined as rural, yet their residents are middle class and they tend to be Democrats. Meanwhile, working-class suburbs of Portland tend to be Republican. These are hardly reconciliations or convergences; they are merely a middle-class invasion of what had previously been working-class enclaves.
The real surprise is not that there is a middle-class/working-class divide, but that the working-class are so heavily Republican. At one time, the working class was heavily unionized and union workers tended to vote Democratic. Today, the strongest unions are public employees unions, and they are middle class. Most working-class workers — mechanics, electricians, plumbers, and so forth — are not unionized, and many own or aspire to own their own businesses, which puts them in the Republican camp to the extent that Republicans oppose regulation and taxation of small businesses.
Only about 30 percent of voting-age Americans have bachelor’s degrees or better, so you would think that their votes would be swamped by the working class. So far, however, Republicans have only appealed to working-class whites, leaving blacks and Hispanics to the Democrats. As the Antiplanner has noted before, the first politician who manages to unite all working-class people, regardless of race, against the middle class will have an unbeatable path to the White House.
So far, however, Republicans have only appealed to working-class whites, leaving blacks and Hispanics to the Democrats.
I think that’s slowly changing. Trump got only 8% of the black vote yet a NAACP poll last July showed a 21% approval rating for Trump among blacks.
It’s the economy. The black unemployment rate is the lowest since records have been kept, since 1972. Hard to argue with that kind of success.
The Democratic party championed itself as the alternative to Corporation, elitist, white dogma
Now they are the corporate, elite, white dogma.
The results of the Obama Presidency don’t matter to either the media or fellow democrats.
In 2008 Terrorism deaths Worldwide were 15,708. In 2009 they were 15,310. By the last three years of Obama’s Presidency, terrorism deaths had risen to 32,000. The first two years of Trump’s presidency are back down to below 19,000. It is no surprise that terrorism deaths rose when Obama called ISIS the JV team and drew a fatuous red line in Syria, did everything he could to build up the terrorist-sponsoring Iran, and even stopped a U.S investigation into drug running by the terrorist Hezb’allah.
Obama strengthened tyrants in China, Cuba, Iran and Russia throughout his eight-year presidency. He did little to stop North Korea. Trump, in contrast, is weakening the economies of tyrants throughout the World with sanctions, tariffs, getting out of the Iran deal and increasing oil production.
Obama and those he surrounded himself with didn’t care. Sanctuary cities and states and DACA are just two examples.
The Obama administration illegally spied on thousands of Americans, including political opponents. The Obama administration also illegally unmasked names of people surrounding Trump. We have seen nothing similar under Trump.
Obama’s policies gave us the slowest economic recovery in seventy years despite almost zero interest rates, massive federal injection of funds, substantial government spending increases and an increase of around $10 trillion in debt. Trump has given us the fastest annual growth since 2005. Obama gave us the lowest labor participation rate in forty years. Trump has brought the unemployment for all races, all education levels and all sexes to RECORD LOWS.
Obama rewarded political bundlers with jobs and contracts. Trump has given almost 100% of U.S. taxpayers and businesses more money to improve the economy, whether they donated to him or supported him or not. Elizabeth Warren and others say, without evidence, that Trump’s policies only benefit the rich. What a crock. It appears that almost the only people that may pay more taxes are higher income people from high tax states that may lose some deductions. It is the Democrats who are trying to protect those rich people, not Trump. Democrats are also the ones that push the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles where almost all the credits go to wealthier people who pretend they care about the environment while they virtue-signal their neighbors.
Obama used the EPA, CFPB and Justice Department to blackmail companies and set up slush funds for political purposes and to reward supporters. The slush funds are gone after Trump was elected.
Obama took away freedom of choice on health care and premiums, and out of pocket expenses rose rapidly. Trump has given freedom of choice back and all of a sudden, prices are stabilizing in 2019. It must be a coincidence. Obama also illegally diverted funds, without going through the cumbersome legislative process, when Obamacare was coming up short. It also was Democrats who diverted Medicare funds to Obamacare, not Trump or Republicans. Obama also violated freedom of speech rights of political opponents through IRS. He weaponized the Justice Department to protect people who violated laws who worked for him, while they were used to target Trump and those who surrounded him. Yet journalists overwhelmingly continue the fiction that no one was above the law during Obama’s eight years and that the Justice Department treats all of us equally.
A fictional Russian collusion narrative perpetuated by a fraudulent dossier created out of thin air and paid for by Hillary and the DNC is not about Trump corruption. The clear case of corruption resides with the Obama Administration colluding with the DNC and Hillary to elect Hillary and destroy Trump. The complicit media is a co-conspirator for perpetuating the fraud.
It is also not a campaign finance violation to use personal money to pay off blackmailing porn stars and Playboy bunnies. It should be a campaign finance violation to steal taxpayer money to hide scandals of members of Congress. If Pelosi actually wants transparency, she will release the names of all cases where taxpayer money was used to protect incumbents.
The real difference between conservatives and liberals
Conservatives view dependence on the government as a needle, sharp, painful but otherwise sometimes necessary.
Liberals view it as a goal.