Excellence or Extinction?

“The fiscal year ending on June 30, 2018, continued the District’s historic journey to excellence,” says the Sacramento Regional Transit District’s 2018 financial report. Really? Based on the June 2018 National Transit Database report, Sacramento RT carried 4.5 percent fewer riders in FY 2018 than it did in FY 2017. Ridership had fallen 22 percent since FY 2014 and 42 percent since 2008. Among major transit agencies, only Greater Cleveland Regional Transit and Memphis Area Transit are doing worse.

Back in 2012, RT opened its quarterly ridership reports with a chart showing ridership each year for the previous twelve years. By 2018, RT’s ridership reports had given up on showing past ridership — too depressing, no doubt — and instead opened with charts showing on-time performance. The agency’s monthly performance reports are densely packed with information but only compare the month’s ridership with the same month of the previous year, not any years before that.

Recent ridership declines happened in spite of a 7 percent increase in service (measured by vehicle-revenue miles) since 2014. However, service declined a stunning 34 percent between 2009 and 2012, no doubt due to reduced tax revenues after the 2008 financial crisis. Recent increases in vehicle miles still leave service 27 percent below 2009.
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Sacramento has about 42 miles of light-rail lines and rail ridership is declining almost as fast as bus ridership — 17 percent in the last four years vs. 26 percent for buses. Sacramento light-rail cars carry an average of 15.5 people — the national average is 22.0 — and fares cover less than 22 percent of operating costs, vs. a national average of 27 percent. Not having wasted enough taxpayer dollars, RT wants to build a streetcar line. It also hoped to blow a billion dollars on a light-rail line to the airport, but voters wisely rejected the tax increase needed to pay for it.

Clearly, this is an agency in denial, pretending to be on a “journey to excellence” and effectively concealing that its ridership has plummeted in the past several years. Ironically, RT was cited by the staff of Denver’s Regional Transit District as an example of “system optimization” (page 8). This is only because RT hired Jarrett Walker to help it redesign its bus system. But even Walker’s magic might not be able to save this agency from the transit death spiral.