The American Public Transportation Association released its fourth quarter 2018 ridership report showing what Antiplanner readers already know: transit lost 2 percent of its riders last year. While admitting the decline, the accompanying press release focused on the few places where ridership grew, such as Columbus, the Long Island Railroad, and West Covina, California. You know they’re desperate when they have to go to West Covina — population 108,000 — to find good news.
Although APTA did issue a press release, it isn’t visible on the lobby group’s home page. Instead, the top “news update” is a March 18 press release demanding that taxpayers pony up $232 billion for transit infrastructure. As previously noted here, this is just a wish-list of transit project, most of which are new and don’t fix the $100 billion maintenance backlog with existing infrastructure.
The ridership press release barely hints at the really bad news, such as the 24 percent decline in Baltimore heavy-rail riders, the 20 percent decline in Boston light-rail riders, or the 12 percent decline in Atlanta bus riders. Unlike the few positive results APTA reported, these aren’t rare exceptions; more likely they are bellwethers of things to come for the few transit agencies that have seen ridership gains.
APTA concluded its ridership press release with a reference to a research paper explaining why ridership is declining. The number one reason, APTA claims, is that transit is becoming less time competitive “due to densification,” increased delivery trucks from on-line orders, and all of the Uber/Lyft drivers that are clogging the streets. No doubt APTA thinks the solution is to create more exclusive busways and rail lines.
However, the Antiplanner is dubious about this conclusion. In 2017, the last year for which we have data, the average speed of transit buses (including commuter, rapid, and trolley buses) was 12.4 miles per hour. In 2014, when ridership peaked, it was 12.3 miles per hour.
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APTA’s second reason for the ridership decline is that riders have a “reduced affinity and loyalty” to transit agencies, partly because transit agencies have increased fares. If people don’t stick around after fare increases, they probably didn’t have that much affinity in the first place.
The third reason is an “erosion of cost competitiveness” due to the rise of “sub-prime auto loans” and low fuel prices. In other words, more low-income people are discovering that driving is not only less expensive but more convenient than transit. Note the use of the “sub-prime” scare term even though there is no evidence that auto loans are in any way a threat to the economy.
Finally, APTA mentions other “external factors” such as increases in free parking and more parking in downtown areas. Clearly, APTA wants a world where transportation policy is designed to penalize auto drivers and reward transit agencies no matter how slow, inconvenient, and expensive transit is compared with driving. Although it might get some sympathy for that view from Democrats, it is unlikely that such a world will ever exist in most of the United States.
None of this is surprising. APTA represents the transit industry, which includes infrastructure builders and rail car manufacturers as well as transit agencies and contractors. But people need to be aware that APTA will never present a balanced view of transportation.
