Maricopa County (Phoenix) was the nation’s fastest-growing county in 2018, gaining more than 81,000 new residents from 2017, according to population estimates just released by the Census Bureau. A distant second was Clark County (Las Vegas), at 48,000 new residents; followed by Harris County (Houston), 34,000; Riverside County (California), 33,500; and King County (Seattle), 29,000. Since 2010, Maricopa gained 593,000 residents and was just edged for the number one spot by Harris County, which grew by 605,000.
Just as significant are the counties that lost population, led by Cook County (Chicago), which lost 24,000 people. Three New York City boroughs are in the bottom five: Queens (-18,000), Brooklyn (-13,500), and the Bronx (-7,500). Los Angeles County is also in the bottom five, having lost 13,000. Baltimore, Honolulu, St. Louis, Cuyahoga (Cleveland), and Sonoma Counties are also big losers, the latter due to wildfire issues.
As a result of these county changes, the nation’s three largest metropolitan areas all lost population: New York (-25,000), Chicago (-22,000), and Los Angeles (-7,000). The declines in the central counties of these regions were partly offset by gains in suburban counties. The metro areas with the biggest gains were Dallas-Ft. Worth (132,000), Phoenix (96,000), Houston (92,000), Atlanta (76,000), Orlando (60,000), and Seattle (55,000).
Overall, the United States grew by just 0.6 percent in 2018, down from 0.7 percent in 2017. Moreover, nearly half the growth was immigration: the natural population increase (births minus deaths) was just over a million people, while immigration was just under a million. International immigration was responsible for three-quarters of the growth in California, and all of the growth in Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont, whose populations would have shrunk without immigration. Populations did shrink in Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Net domestic migration between the states was heavy, with nearly 110,000 more people moving from New York to another state than moved into New York. Illinois lost 83,000, California 38,000, and Louisiana 25,000. Florida was the big winner, attracting 308,000 more people from other states than moved out of the state, followed by Texas at 188,000, Arizona at 98,000, Washington at 77,000, and Nevada at 50,000.
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On a county level, those with the greatest net domestic migration were Maricopa (49,000), Clark (35,000), Collin (in the Dallas suburbs, 22,000), Riverside (19,000), and Polk (Lakeland, Florida, 17,000). The biggest losers were Los Angeles (-99,000), Cook (-63,000), Miami-Dada (-52,000), Brooklyn (-47,000), Queens (-44,000), and Harris (-44,000). Most of these aren’t surprising but the change in Harris County, which contains nearly all of Houston, is stunning. All of the suburban counties around Houston gained, but not enough to offset the loss in Harris County.
Most of this isn’t surprising. For the most part, areas that were dense and have high housing prices lost population; areas with low densities and low housing prices gained. The biggest surprise is Seattle, which managed to grow despite unaffordable housing and increasing densities (though Seattle is nowhere near as dense as Los Angeles, New York, or Chicago). Seattle’s growth is largely due to the huge increase in jobs at Amazon, Microsoft, and other high-tech companies.
The other big surprise is Harris County’s net domestic outmigration. Dallas County also lost 22,000 domestic migrants, but Bexar County (San Antonio) gained 8,000 and Travis County (Austin) gained 5,000. Apparently, the cities of Dallas and Houston no longer appeal to Americans who desire low-density, suburban lifestyles.
Numbers are not yet available for individual cities. When they are, we’ll find out how much Buckeye, which the Antiplanner has called the “developer’s dream,” contributed to Maricopa County’s growth and perhaps get some more information about Harris County’s growth. In the meantime, the 2018 population estimates can help answer many questions about the effects of land-use policies on urban areas.
With the oldest of the millennials entering their 40s, are we witnessing a boom in exurbia similar to what we say in core cities when they were in their 20s?