When I let associates know that I was projecting that transit ridership after the pandemic would be 25 to 35 percent lower than before, some of them suggested I was overestimating. Now Reuters reports that in China, “transit ridership in large cities remains down about 35% two months after lockdown restrictions were lifted.” At the same time, auto sales there have sharply increased.
Reuters also frets that a shift from transit to cars will lead to more congestion. In fact, in most cities not enough people ride transit to make a different in traffic congestion. Where there is a difference, I suspect there will be less congestion, not more, because the real switch will not be from transit to driving but from transit and driving to working at home.
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Transit agencies, of course, want people to feel like they can safely ride the obsolete transportation they are offering. New York’s MTA alone says it will cost $500 million more a year to keep everything from ticket machines to transit seats disinfected. That’s just one more reason to rethink whether we really need transit all that much.
I saw something last week in Urbanista circles that touches on a congestion and transit. They’re so focused on a couple cities like NYC, they were talking about it being proof of doom. Yet for 99% of the cities — EVEN WASHINGTON DC — it would barely change the average commute.
I’ll try to remember to find it and share.
I used to ride the subways in NYC quite often when I visited the city. In the best of times, you felt dirty.
After this, I wouldn’t ride them even if you paid me. Although, when you look at all the subsidies etc., they have always been paying people to use the subways.
And as to the $500 million for disinfectant. (1) that would only be a drop in the bucket to really do it right and (2) we can be sure that if and when the MTA claims they spent that $$$ for cleaning, a good chunk went elsewhere.
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(2) we can be sure that if and when the MTA claims they spent that $$$ for cleaning, a good chunk went elsewhere.
“~!john1000
There was a video on twitter early on with some transit working cleaning the seat. They were all proud of all this cleaning. I sat there and thought “my god, am I the only one seeing this n00b miss cleaning 1/3 of the surface of the seat before flipping up to clean the bottom”. So ya, even when they’re not doing a piss pour job of cleaning, they’re just burning the money.
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/transit/2020/05/16/nyc-subways-coronavirus-cleaning-contractors-claim-they-have-dirty-supplies
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Contract workers cleaning the subways of COVID-19 say in cellphone video the supplies they use are dirty and the personal protective equipment (PPE) they’re given is inadequate. One of the workers claims their lives are in danger while they’re not even able to make the subways safer.
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