Transit ridership remained below 60 percent of pre-padenmic levels in May 2022, according to data released by the Federal Transit Administration yesterday. This was only a slight improvement over April’s 58.7 percent despite average fuel prices climbing from a little over $4 in April to more than $4.50 in May.
Amtrak passenger miles, meanwhile, reached 78.5 percent of May 2019, a 5 percent climb from April. Air travel remained right around 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Driving data will be released later this month.
As in previous months, commuter bus and commuter rail are still doing poorly, carrying 37.2 percent and 48.7 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. Heavy rail carried 58.3 percent of pre-pandemic riders, light rail 60.9 percent, and conventional buses (which the FTA calls “motor bus”) 61.9 percent. The only form of urban transit to breach 70 percent was inclined planes, which are mostly for tourists, at 75.7 percent.
When compared with April 2022, May ridership grew by only 2.1 percent. A small amount of growth in May is typical; May 2018 ridership was 3.6 percent greater than April while in 2019 it was 1.0 percent greater. Thus, the 2.1 percent growth in 2022 is simply seasonal and not a reflection of transit recovering from the pandemic.
It seems increasingly likely that transit ridership has reached a plateau of about 60 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. That’s worse than I had predicted, as I estimated ridership would recover to no more than 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels based on increased telecommuting and dispersal of jobs from downtowns and residents to smaller cities and exurban areas. Transit’s inability to capitalize on high fuel prices is particularly foreboding.
As usual, I’ve posted an enhanced version of the FTA’s spreadsheet. It includes annual (from 2002 through 2022) ridership and vehicle-revenue mile totals in columns IU through JO, mode totals in rows 2265 through 2285, agency totals in rows 2291 through 3289, and urban area totals in rows 3296 through 3783.
Transit us not suffering lack of funds…. it receives 54 billion a year…ON TOP OF THE 77 billion it got as So called Pandemic relief.
66 Billion dollars buys you?
54 billion will buy you 100,000 Rolls Royce Cullinans and you could run them as luxury taxis for money left over would buy 500,000 miles of fuel each.
Or buy 1.5 million Chevy Bolt evs…enough to give every transit rider ….a new car….in less than a decade
lol nice comment.
“Air travel remained right around 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels.”
That’s not because customers were scarce but because workers were — pilots, cabin crew, ground crew and air traffic controllers.
the only reason you need a federal agency… Standardization.
Interstate commerce requires a nation spanning rail and highway system that conforms to the same “lane width” sign postage, traffic signals, gauge, electric voltage; shit like that. All in all, federal govt doesn’t have to finance any or much of it’s construction.
Federal gas tax is 18.3 cents and 24 cents (diesel)
Federal fuel taxes raised $36.4 billion in Fiscal Year 2016, with $26.1 billion raised from gasoline taxes and $10.3 billion raised from taxes on diesel and special motor fuels. To my knowledge the tax was last raised in 1993 and is not indexed to inflation. So we’re paying for infrastructure on a finance rate, using money based on a dollar value from nearly 30 years ago.
Global gas taxes by nation (Tax: USD per gallon)
Australia: $1.17
Canada: 0.74
Denmark: 2.63
Germany: 2.79
Italy: 3.11
Sweden: 2.73
UK: 2.82
USA: 0.56
And we wonder why our infrastructure is shit….
Allow states to raise their gas taxes and cut federal gas tax a penny for each state raise. And as added measure raise it 2 cents for every 1 cent federal deduction. This would only increase gas taxes. Average US total above is 56 cents, meaning states make an average of 38 cents. Even after cutting federal gas tax in Half, with a 2 cent per capita raise; you could have a 30% increase in revenue at expense of no more than a added dime per gallon to consumer. State revenues often cover majority of run highways, tolls handle any discrepancies.
Regardless of which state depends more on federal funding, less federal input incentivizes highway rationalization, getting the feds out of it and inputing more state funds makes state highway departments more fiscally responsible…
Texas and California have by lane miles of highways
more than any state. All in all making states more responsible has several assets.
– Makes states reevaluate grandiose construction projects, Bostons “Big Dig” never would have been built without federal funding.
– Federal subsidies to highways is “Swing money” by picking a poverty case for tthe year they validate a sense of fiscal incompetence.
– Makes infrastructure responsible to users. But also makes user responsible to infrastructure.
LazyReader, try selling your “get the Feds out of it” idea to your congressperson and your two senators then let us know it goes.
”
Global gas taxes by nation (Tax: USD per gallon)
Australia: $1.17
Canada: 0.74
Denmark: 2.63
Germany: 2.79
Italy: 3.11
Sweden: 2.73
UK: 2.82
USA: 0.56
And we wonder why our infrastructure is shit….
” ~ Lazyreader
I’ll bite.
It depends on what constitutes shit infrastructure.
Canada doesn’t have a single freeway connecting it coast to coast nor southern border to north. Not one. The US has around 2 dozen doing that just that.
In the US you can drive from it’s 16th largest metro MPLS to the 192nd biggest, Fargo.
In Sweden, they haven’t’ connected their largest 2 cities , Stockholm and Gothenburg with a freeway even though the distance is less than the above MPLS-Fargo. Hell, in the US, there is more than one freeway routing that you can take form LA to NY which is 10-12 times further than Gothenburg + Stockholm.
Italy? Please, the US’s infrastructure is in pristine condition to Italy. People are dieing in bridge collapses there like mass shootings in the US. It’s horrendous.
”
It seems increasingly likely that transit ridership has reached a plateau of about 60 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. That’s worse than I had predicted, as I estimated ridership would recover to no more than 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels based on increased telecommuting and dispersal of jobs from downtowns and residents to smaller cities and exurban areas. Transit’s inability to capitalize on high fuel prices is particularly foreboding.
” ~anti-planner
The more time that passes where transit is down 40% while others are back to being 80%-100%, the more it feels like something has fundamentally changed.
Do we have any insight into the current heavy rail commuter #s? Quite a few of the smaller lines like Northstar have been cut to their bare bones. Almost no one used them before covid and now it’s practically none, just 2 round trips a day.
How are things looking on the big ones in Chicago, LA, et al?
Are those at 60%?
Or is that 60% being pulled up by local buses, the sort people use for everyday life?
I ask because there’s a lot of talk of hybrid work with some people officially in the office several days a week but actually more like a few days a month.
If those transit services are losing too many of those downtown workers, they’re be forced to cut back on those express buses, heavy rail commuter lines, etc. And that could be a bit of a feedback loop with those who do go downtown, then leaving transit for driving because the transit service isn’t good enough.