More Delays, Less Delays, But Always More Costs

Maryland’s Purple Line, which was originally supposed to open more than a year ago, now won’t open until 2026. But that’s supposed to be good news, because two months ago the state said it wouldn’t open until 2027. The bad news, other than the news that it is being built at all, is that it is at least $1.46 billion over budget.

That’s kind of a breathtaking number — $1.46 billion — at least for those who understand how much money that really is. For one thing, this cost of this one light-rail line would have been more than enough to construct all of the light-rail lines built in Buffalo, Portland, Sacramento, San Diego, and San Jose during the 1980s. At that time, light rail construction was costing around $10 million to $15 million a mile, or about $30 million to $40 million in today’s dollars. The Purple Line is costing more than $210 per mile, or five to seven times as much.

The Purple Line is built on a series of lies. In 2005, the Bush Administration issued new cost-effectiveness rules saying that the federal government would only fund transit projects that cost less than $25 for every hour the project saved travelers. The Purple Line failed to meet that standard, so Maryland’s Democratic governor at the time hired Parsons-Brinckerhoff to revise ridership projections upwards so it would pass the test. The company was happy to do so and the projections it made were completely unrealistic.

Then a Republican governor got elected by opposing the line in his campaign, saying that it would be a “disaster.” After taking office, he said he would approve the Purple Line only if the cost, then projected to be $2.4 billion, could be reduced below $2.0 billon. Purple Line planners happily reduced their cost estimates and he approved the project. Now the projected cost is $3.4 billion, so they lied about that as well.

Then the state claimed it was saving taxpayers money by creating a public-private partnership to build and operate it for a cost of “only” $5.6 billion. The private partners soon got upset when they figured out the cost estimates were totally unrealistic and withdrew from the project. That’s one of the major reasons for the delays but also contributed to higher costs.

If it really does open in 2026, ridership is likely to be even lower than the original estimates that were too low to allow federal funding because COVID has completely transformed travel habits. Many people who might have taken the Purple Line are now working at home. Other people are alienated from public transit by the threats of infectious diseases and crime. FTA data show that, as of March 2023, Maryland commuter trains and light-rail trains in Baltimore are carrying less than 35 percent of pre-pandemic riders.

This should be an object lesson for people who support rail transit anywhere. It will always cost more and take longer than you think and it probably won’t attract as many riders as you hope. It makes no sense even if it did because buses could carry those riders just as fast to more destinations for far less money. Unfortunately, transit projects aren’t built in the United States for transportation purposes but instead to enrich construction companies and construction unions, so no one will learn these lessons.