U.S. fertility rates have fallen to just 1.6 per woman. This has led some to fear that the United States may face the same kind of demographic collapse that is besetting Japan.
While some may cheer that this makes overpopulation less of a problem, low fertility rates translate to serious economic problems. As demographer Peter Zeihan notes, people in their 20s and 30s spend lots of money, people in their 40s through 60s save money that can then be used for investments in improved productivity, but older people large retire from the economy. The young consumers drive economic growth and the middle-aged savers fund that growth. If the ratio of younger people to older people falls too low, then the economy stops growing, which reduces economic mobility and security.
In addition to Japan, several other countries are going through this today, including China, Italy, and Brazil, among others. Historically, countries like Japan have compensated for low numbers of young people by exporting a high percentage of what they produce, effectively making the importing countries take the place of local young consumers. The United States has been the biggest consumer of stuff exported from other countries, but if U.S. demographics change, it won’t be able to do that much longer. That will cause more strife both locally and worldwide.
The United States has historically enjoyed a healthy demography despite low birthrates due to its welcoming large numbers of immigrants. But a growing anti-immigration movement is making that difficult, even if the anti-immigrationists have no solution to the demographic problems that will result.
Research shows that higher population densities mean lower fertility rates. High housing prices also lead to lower fertility rates. Further research shows that “living in spacious housing and in a family-friendly environment for a relatively long time leads to higher fertility.”
In short, if you think that preventing demographic collapse is a good thing, then this becomes one more reason to oppose planners who want to densify American cities. Planners’ efforts to force more people to live in apartments or smaller homes by making housing artificially expensive could be the downfall of the American economy.
Easily fixed by tax break for having second kid after the 1st.
Price Hospitalization/emergency care natal is issue because hospital delivery can cost lot in US. incentive to have kids can be gutted by cost alone…
US can fix all of it healthcare costs TOMORROW. With one simple law, Price transparency Act. It goes something like this…
To ensure a competitive market and cost mitigation controls Congress shall authorize…
1: ANY and ALL healthcare participants shall be required to publish the prices of their services/procedures/drugs/equipment they offer
2: Said prices shall be offered in an industry standard open source accessible format
3: Said open prices shall not be raised or lowered upon agreed upon established
Left: stop having kids for climate
Also: we need import people to address declines in births.
We all saw writing on wall.
Jordan Peterson described how the US military determined that people with an IQ below 83 (1 in 10 people in the USA) could not be trained for anything at any level of the organization that was not counter-productive. Immigrants iQ from Africa and MidEast is barely functioning.
Call me racist all you want I don’t care. Here’s kicker WHITES built modern civilization. Ended forced servitude, championed women’s rights and rights other ethnicities. Development of tech and modern economics. Besides Asia can do that.
Point is Black/Hispanic neighborhoods are not suffering effects of lack investment. Simply insufficient revenue to “Invest”
Because black/Hispanics are largely net deficit on public finances (They take more in public service than they pay in taxes Early onset). Their GDP and tax brackets make them incompatible with services they Demand. That’s why White Minority cities are financial train wrecks. Worse, they’re not suffering effects downtrodden; just byproduct cultural habits that make their ancestral homeland similar. Black neighborhoods aren’t “Failing”, they’re functioning exactly as one would expect in Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the world, Africa, Carribean, Brazil. They aren’t fixable, there’s nothing broken.
Jesus fucking christ this is racist. A. black neighborhoods are “failing” they were never given a chance to begin with. after centuries of slavery, 89 of which was under the US, and another century of segregation afterwards of course they arent going to have the same wealth as the people who OWNED them. Then top it off with colonial exploitation by europeans across the globe of course those countries arent going to have the same wealth as the countries stealing their capital, human and otherwise. And since they werent in possession of any wealth, of course they werent going to be educated enough to develop modern systems. IQ doesnt even accurately score intelligence, and was created in the first place as a tool for eugenics and to cement the idea that white people are somehow superior to everyone else even though the only difference is their lack of melanin. who the fuck educated you??? A dumpster with a swastika on it???
I’ve already pointed out that Orthodox Jews live at high population densities, and yet have high birth rates. The Town of Palm Tree (formerly called Kiryas Joel), NY has a density of 20,000 people per square mile.
I dont see the US as anti immigrant they just want people to come into country the right way. Thru the front door not jumping over the fence.
Pharisee,
Some people actually like to ride transit, too. There are always exceptions, but in general, increased densities are accompanied by reduced fertility.
Ike,
I once asked Tom Tancredo, who as much as anyone started the anti-immigration movement, if the solution was just to legalize immigration. His answer made it clear that he didn’t want immigrants, legal or illegal.
I dont think that suburbs encourage fertility, i think its more that suburbs are more marketed towards people who already have or are seeking to have kids, so the concentration of people who have kids are going to be increased in a suburb relative to a city. Though to be fair the perfection of city planning that is dutch cities do have low birth rates propped up by immigration too but that might also change if immigration hit lower numbers since there would be more absent space that wouldnt get filled otherwise.
Add a massive regulatory burden, remove any semblance of a social safety net or welfare state, jack the cost of almost everything up and who would have thought people would have stopped having kids?
I dont think that suburbs encourage fertility, i think its more that suburbs are more marketed towards people who already have or are seeking to have kids, so the concentration of people who have kids are going to be increased in a suburb relative to a city. Though to be fair the perfection of city planning that is dutch cities do have low birth rates propped up by immigration too but that might also change if immigration hit lower numbers since there would be more absent space that wouldnt get filled otherwise.