Secretary of Immobility Ray LaHood says the administration’s high-speed rail fantasy won’t be derailed. But remember, this is the guy who said “there is no stopping” high-speed rail in Wisconsin a few months before the November election–and then he killed Wisconsin’s project himself when the “wrong party’s” candidate won the governorship.
Wikipedia commons photo of the world’s deadliest high-speed train accident by Nils Fretwurst.
Republicans remain skeptical and say they want to cancel the program. Even middle-of-the-road transportation commentator Ken Orski, who once wrote enthusiastically about high-speed rail and who is no antiplanner, argues (in a free email newsletter that he doesn’t post on line) that the administration’s plan is “a $53 billion high-speed rail program to nowhere.”
Meanwhile, California critics of the San Francisco-to-Anaheim high-speed rail project show that it will cost $65 billion, not the $43 billion claimed by the state’s high-speed rail authority. This is based on recent documents published by the authority but not previously collected together in one analysis.
As the Antiplanner has noted before, the real linchpin for high-speed rail is Florida: if Governor Scott cancels the Tampa-to-Orlando train, the administration will have no real high-speed rail project in the works other than California–which won’t go into revenue service until after Obama leaves office.
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If the Florida project is built, it could be operational in 2015, which would provide an inspiration to other states that want to build such lines. But, if it is not built, and all of that state’s money is given to California, California still will only have about 12.5 percent of what it needs to complete its line (based on the $65 million cost).
As Orski points out, Scott’s February 7 speech announcing his proposed state budget does not sound too positive regarding rail. Although he didn’t specifically mention rail, he noted that previous “one time hand outs from the federal government” led “state and local governments to spend beyond their means,” resulting in large deficits. That’s a perfect description of the high-speed rail program.
If Scott kills the Florida project, it would just about kill all the momentum behind the entire program. The chair of the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee is from Florida, and he would have little reason to promote high-speed rail in other states.
While there are moderate-speed rail projects in other states, many of them are also in jeopardy as the private railroads over whose tracks they are supposed to run are balking at the possible interference with their freight trains. As noted by Fred Frailey in Trains magazine, BNSF, Norfolk Southern, and CSX are objecting to federal terms for high-speed rail programs in Washington, North Carolina, and Virginia. The only significant moderate-speed rail project left would be in Illinois, which the Union Pacific Railroad agreed to because the government is more than doubling the route’s capacity to run both passenger and freight trains.
If we ever do build high-speed rail lines, the lack of revenue to keep them going means that they would be perennially out of order. It is one thing to let an escalator break down, but if high-speed rail tracks are in poor shape, the trains won’t operate at high speeds anymore, which means there isn’t much point in having them at all.
Anything is possible in politics. But high-speed rail would have had a much better chance if it had been proposed during the boom years of the 1990s rather than the bust years of 2009-2010. Given financial deficits all around, it is hard to see why the country should embark on a giant new megaproject whose costs are so great and benefits so small.
Antiplanner wrote:
” …but if high-speed rail tracks are in poor shape, the trains won’t operate at high speeds anymore, which means there isn’t much point in having them at all.”
Or people get killed.
1. Poor maintenance of the rails. The rails shattered like glass under the oncoming Intercity 125 HSR train.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4233301.stm
2. Poor maintenance of points. The points were left after maintenance in an unsafe condition
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/beds/bucks/herts/2945582.stm
3. Poor maintenance of signalling equipment. The signals could not be properly seen from the engine cabin.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladbroke_Grove_rail_crash
Francis, I have mentioned the 1987 deadly wreck on Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor tracks (near Chase, Maryland; between Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware) here before but it is relevant to mention in light of what you wrote above, and I propose to add it to your list above.
4. Locomotive engineer (or train driver in the U.K., I believe) under the influence of illegal substance (in the Chase wreck it was cannabis, and maybe alcohol).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_Maryland_train_collision
Were I an opponent of this blog, I would ask why we never see photos of mangled cars.
If I was more cynical than I am, I would explain the lack of mangled cars as follows:
“About the Antiplanner – The Antiplanner is an active cyclist and avid railfan who nonetheless recognizes that the automobile is the greatest invention of the last 200 years.”
That’s given some strong competition! Bicycles (from which most car technology has been borrowed, i.e. stolen without attribution) – industrial quantities of soap (which has done more than anything to improve the health of the general public) – the Haber process (which is feeding so many people around the world) – antibiotics (which have saved so many lives). Etc.
And the best is yet to come…
A question I would love to see answered is why TGV projects in France are so inexpensive compared to proposed HSR projects in the US such as California.
LGV Rhin-Rhone – 200 miles for 2 billion Euro.
LGV Sud Europe Atlantique – 210 miles for 7 billion Euro.
LGV Est – 190 miles for 3.2 billion Euro
LGV Meditterranee – 134 miles for 3.8 billion Euro (2001 Euro’s)
The French high speed network of 1180 miles of dedicated track (and more non-dedicated branches), which serves an area in size and population equivalent to the US between Boston and Detroit and Norfolk carried 98 million riders and generated a $1.75 billion profit.
NB – The mayhem depicted in the German wreck photo would not have occurred in the US because American rail cars are heavier and built with crush zones in the vestibule to protect the integrity of the passenger compartment. That is also the only wreck that has occurred on a HSR line in France, Germany, Japan, Italy, or Spain. Its hard to see that safety record ever being matched by the highway or air systems. Wouldn’t want anything like even handed context on this site though, right?
CPZ and Francis King:
16 people died at Chase Maryland in the only major passenger rail wreck caused by a rail operator under the influence of narcotics and/or alcohol during the Amtrak era.
32 people die every day from drunk drivers in the US and this after massive anti-drunk driving campaigns for decades that has brought this rate down. So in 14,500 days of Amtrak operation the death ratio from drunken operators is something like 16 to 500,000+ on the roads. That would be a ratio of 1 to 31,250 (0.0032%). Given that passenger rail accounts for 0.5% to 1% of all travel, it goes without saying that this disgusting carnage on the roads could be massively reduced by getting people to ride trains. The economic value over a lifetime of just 20% of these dead people ont he roads would be $200-$800 billion depending on how many millions you think a human life is worth. Conversely, had everyone who rode Amtrak driven instead, we could have expected an additional 2500 to 5000 drunk driving deaths during that period. The economic value of these peoples lives saved by riding trains is about the same as the subsidy paid out to Amtrak. This suggests that simply keeping people off the road and on trains on this basis alone is worth the current subsidy, especially if the intangible value of these human lives saved is also considered.
Andrew – do your fatality figures include trespass? Trespass is a major loss of life within the rail boundaries.
If trains are much safer than cars, does that mean we should build more trains or make the roads safer?
Airplanes are also much safer than cars? Should we build trains or planes?
Mr.King that’s a false premise, if some one drives or jumps in front of a train that was their choice & was not the fault of the train.
Francis King:
No, my numbers don’t include trespassers suicides and such. I was discussing the loss of life at the hands of drunken or drug impaired vehicle operators, not people jumping in front of vehicles.
I’m curious though as to your definition of a “major loss of life”. How is this quantified?
Trains vs. cars on safety – cars appear to be inherently dangerous compared to other modes due to their ability to be steered in any direction, but also obviously necessary for mobility. I would like to see more opportunities provided for people to reasonably avoid the use of cars in a non-coercive manner. People can make choices on their own, but only if the choice is made available.