Sometimes I feel like Chevy Chase proclaiming, week after week, that Franco, by which I mean Florida’s high-speed rail, is still dead. Yet people are still trying to revive Florida’s high-speed boondoggle. The latest is a just-released ridership projection showing that the rail line, if built, would earn an operating profit as soon as it opened.
The original projections (see page 9) estimated that the Tampa-to-Orlando train would carry 2.7 million riders in 2015 and 3.2 million in 2020. Based on fares of about $20 a ticket and operating costs of about $50 million a year, the line would initially require an operating subsidy but would cover its operating costs after 2020.
The new projections say the train would carry 3.2 to 3.6 million riders in 2016. That’s enough riders to cover its operating costs right away–assuming the cost and fare projections are correct. The new analysis uses the same costs and fares as the state’s.
The Miami Herald goes so far as to say the line would be profitable, but it isn’t profitable unless it covers its capital costs. Contrary to a belief popular in the passenger rail community, capital costs do count.
It sounds to me like, “keep throwing the dice until they come up with an answer you want.” But the numbers are totally not credible.
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To start with, the corridor is just 84 miles long. As the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) itself says (see page 1), automobiles have a “comparative advantage” over high-speed trains in corridors less than 100 miles long. This 84-mile corridor has about 2.5 million people and attracts about 50 million visitors a year.
By comparison, the Boston-Washington corridor has about 35 million residents and attracts well over 50 million visitors a year. Yet Amtrak’s Acela carried just 3.2 million riders in 2010, and 3.0 million in 2009. So how is the Florida train going to carry this many or more people?
In order to achieve Florida’s original projections, the train would have to capture 14 percent of the traffic in the corridor. The new numbers up this to 17 percent. Amtrak’s Acela carries less than 3 percent of the traffic in its corridor, even though most of the trips are in the 100- to 600-mile range that the FRA says gives high-speed rail a comparative advantage. Just how is the Florida train, which will go only a little faster than the Acela, supposed to go from 3 to 17 percent?
A Florida U.S. Representative told the Miami Herald that “Private firms had been clamoring to bid on Florida’s high-speed rail initiative.” Sure, if by bid you mean “offer to accept $2.5 billion.” If someone offers to build the line at their own expense and fund it out of fares and whatever advertisements they can hang from the sides, I am sure the governor would be glad to go for it.
The real question is: if the project is dead, who paid for these new projections?
The irony is that capital costs count & don’t count at the same time, because that’s how it works with roads.
The Antiplanner wrote:
To start with, the corridor is just 84 miles long. As the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) itself says (see page 1), automobiles have a “comparative advantage†over high-speed trains in corridors less than 100 miles long. This 84-mile corridor has about 2.5 million people and attracts about 50 million visitors a year.
Some have promoted the line as carrying people between Tampa, Orlando and Disney. O.K.
But what about the other tourist attractions in and near Orlando? Such as Universal Studios, Sea World Orlando and many others? If this high-speed rail line is so great, why should the Mouse be favored?
And should the line serve the Orlando Airport, or “downtown” Orlando, near the present Amtrak stop?
As noted in a comment for the previous post – half the ridership is for the Orlando Airport to Disney and International Drive (Sea World and Universal Studios) to Disney segments. Certainly not conducive to HSR. Every newspaper in Florida that covered the story was guilty of the same sin – headlines that blared that new study shows that HSR would make money contrary to Governor’s predictions. Incredibly ignorant and irresponsible journalism but something that we have learned to expect here in Florida.
To continue previous comment. Ridership numbers for 2016:
Intercity Market (Tampa – Orlando) – 1.549 million
Urban Market (International Dr.-Disney) – .839 million
Airport Access (Airport to Disney and Int. Dr.) – .735 million
Airport Market (Airport to Tampa???) – .063 million
Airport to Disney = .735 million riders to travel 23.63 miles (current trip takes 32 minutes by toll road)
International Dr. to Disney = .839 million riders to travel 15.39 miles (current trip takes 24 minutes by Interstate Highway)
And if that is not ridiculous enough, the projections have no basis in reality – this is a boondoggle of the highest order!
Must we always overuse the word “corridor?” How about substituting “line” or “route?” Sometimes the word can be eliminated altogether, i.e. “along the I-5 corridor” can be rewritten as “along I-5.” One of my biggest pet peeves with the bureaucrat/academic/planning professions is their inability to write succinctly.
The term corridor includes the route or line, and the surrounding infrastructure.
Maybe that’s the idea, but the word is often misused as a synonym for “route” or “line.” Pick a random report and substitute one of these words and see how the sentence reads. Or drop the word entirely, as in my previous example.
There might be legitimate times when “corridor” is the correct use, but right now it is suffering from extreme overuse.
The Miami Herald has a nice juicy quote:
“In the wake of the study, Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson is clinging to the idea that the line could be built.
“I still have a sliver of hope that common sense and the facts will prevail,†he said”
Common sense, as Einstein is supposed to have said, is nothing more than the prejudices acquired by the age of 15.
Though lets also keep in mind that Florida’s governor Rick Scott was forced resign as CEO from HCAHealthcare in the late 1990’s, as result of defrauding people of hundreds of millions of dollars too.
So it looks like O’Toole & Scott have a mind set very in common.
That’s funny, it was HCAHealthcare that was charged with fraud, not Rick Scott. Then again, maybe it’s the meds talking, eh Highwayman?
So what?
Rick Scott was in charge, when his company charged for fraud!