Rail transit ballot measures lost in Kansas City and San Jose, but won in Seattle, Sonoma-Marin counties, and Los Angeles. From the point of view of sensible transportation policy, the biggest disaster of the election was passage of the California high-speed rail measure.
Sometimes I think it is wonderful that we can live in a country that is so wealthy that we can afford to build rail lines that cost five times as much per mile as freeway lanes yet carry only one-fifth as many people. But, as it turns out, we really can’t afford to do so.
The bursting of the stockmarket bubble in 2001 would have sent us into a recession but for the increase in consumer spending that resulted from the housing bubble. Now that the housing bubble has burst, our weak economy stands naked and trembling for all to see. Yet this did not much dampen enthusiasm for ridiculous rail projects.
First, the good news. After rejecting light rail seven times, then approving a plan that turned out to be unworkable, Kansas City once again resoundingly defeated a new light-rail plan. It would be nice to think that after 56 percent of voters rejected this plan that it will stay dead and buried, but these things always come back.
As it came back to Santa Clara County, California, which in 2000 approved a sales tax increase for a BART line from Fremont to San Jose. But the line turned out to cost a lot more than expected, so votes were asked for another sales tax increase. The latest count says that 66.27 percent said yes, which means that it failed because California requires a two-thirds majority to pass tax increases. But it was painfully close.
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In Los Angeles, the “red” subway line is, by all accounts, a failure, costing 50 percent more to build than the original estimates and carrying less than half as many people as estimated. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) was content to focus instead on light rail. But L.A.’s new mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, wanted to complete the “subway-to-the-sea” line, and he managed to persuade 67.4 percent of voters to raise sales taxes to do so.
The “SMART” train is a proposed commuter-rail line in Sonoma and Marin counties that would end near (but not at) a San Francisco ferry terminal but otherwise not approach any major job centers. Voters twice before failed to muster the two-thirds majority needed to fund it, but in this case, the third time’s the charm.
Finally, California high-speed rail passed with 52.2 percent of the vote. This commits California to spend $9 billion starting construction on what ultimately will be a $50 to $60 or more billion megaproject.
Backers of the plan are counting on getting matching or even more than matching funds from the federal government. They may even get it, but not without starting high-speed rail crazes in other parts of the country.
It is widely agreed that government failure caused the current economic crisis (though not everyone agrees on just what that failure was). Ironically, as NBC anchor Brian Williams noted during Tuesday night’s election coverage, “There is evidence that more people are now viewing government as the solution and not the problem.” It will be sad indeed if we end up suffering from more government failures as a response to government failures of the past.
It is widely agreed that government failure caused the current economic crisis (though not everyone agrees on just what that failure was).
IMHO it was a failure of restraining the klepto-capitalists that funded BushCo. Or maybe it was a failure to restrain BushCo. It certainly was human nature in part.
DS
ROT that is pure bull shit. Well then for that matter the Interstate Highway system is a vulgar libertarian/socialist transportation policy disaster.
Unfortunately, Randal is partially correct in his fears that “corporate klepto capitalists” will have their fingers in the HSR pie. I can assure you this is certainly the case in California, supported by political entrepeneurs who actually know little to nothing about the topic.
Ayup.
DS
I’m sure that the costs of the California High Speed Rail system, if built, will come in well in excess of the $45 billion official
[www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/faqs/financing.htm] forcast. See:
http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/wirtschaft_finanzen/bericht-91537\.html
Furthermore, on the CAHSR page http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/faqs/financing.htm
it says: “Once built, the system will not require operating subsidies and will
generate over $1 billion in annual profits.”
OK, what kind of fare will they charge to make these returns?
according to this page:
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/images/chsr/20081021150533_Ridership2.pdf “HST fares were set so that LA Union Station (LAUS) to San Francisco Transbay Terminal (SFTB) would cost about half of the average air fare from the SCAG
airports to Bay Area airports, (resulting in a $55 fare for that trip).”
This is where I smell a rat. According to Bob Johnston’s report in the December 2008 issue of Trains magazine, Amtrak’s current Boston-New York “yield-managed fares range from $62 to $107 for a Regional [conventional train] coach and $89-$150 for Acela* business, depending on the day and time of travel.”
Using Amtrak fares as a benchmark, $55 SF-LA fares on CAHSR simply don’t passs the sniff test.
The above two issues lead me to trust the CA HSR authority about as much as I trust Carl Guardino.
There’s more: The route on both ends of the route stinks. Why, in the south, are
they proposing a scenic detour via Palmdale, Lancaster, Mojave and Tehachapi?
And, on the north end, routing via Pachaco instead of Altamont means that any
future Sacramento extension will require about twice as much mileage and cost:
trainblog.com/2007/10/follow-the-people-follow-the-lights/
Finally, the state is way too much in hock as it is. I vote “no” on any new
taxes or bonds until the debt level is reduced.
Hugh
*Acela=Amtrak Customers Experience Late Arrivals
Mr.Setty, HSR now, is along the same lines as the interstate highways were in the 1950’s.
I realize that there will be bugs with implementing it, though over all the idea is sound.
That’s not true. Rail has come and gone. Rail long ago became something romanticized; kinda like the covered wagon. The interstate highway system was not only much less expensive to build but it was a relatively new technology. HSR today is resurrected 19th century technology with some tweaks; something old polished up a bit. Clearly Californians are unfamiliar with the old phrase, ya can’t polish a turd. Unfortunately for them they are about to spend at least $9 billion dollars to learn this the hard way and at a time when their state government isn’t that far away from having to extreme measures to avoid bankruptcy.
Sorry but, automobiles are horseless carriages and roads have been around for millennia!
So who is calling who old?
I’m always amazed by the sheer bigotry, hypocrisy, hatred & willful ignorance on this blog.
Though that seems to be the foundation of vulgar libertarianism.
I’m always amazed by the sheer bigotry, hypocrisy, hatred & willful ignorance on this blog.
From my perspective, you’re the one peddling such the most, the highwayman. You dismiss all calm arguments about numbers and the California HSR project with simply blithe ignorance and hatred, and chauvinism that assumes, without study, that not only must rail be successful, but that this rail project must be successful.
Amtrak’s latest numbers seem to show that incremental upgrades, like those on the Harrisburg to Philedelphia Keystone Line or the St. Louis-Chicago Lincoln Service line, can lead to year-on-year increases in profitability, or at least don’t hurt. Reports for other proposed high speed rail corridors, such as the Southeast High Speed Rail, make far more realistic ridership and fare calculations than in California. Federal feasibility reports on the earlier 150 mph California plan found it among the worst of proposed corridors in covering its operating costs, and I’m highly skeptical that much has changed here.
The numbers for California’s project are simply not believable. There is no way to get that mixture of speed (especially on so much shared track), profits, fares, and capital cost. The project would have to easily exceed performance on all those measures of all high speed rail projects in the world– and by significant measures.
If the idea is so sound, why does it require so much lying? I fear that the project will be a boondoggle that will take funds away from reasonable train projects that would actually provide improvement at levels promised. It will also sour public opinion on future reasonable investments.
Well I don’t see Randall O’Toole or Wendel Cox along with Cato or Reason pushing for expanding Amtrak(even here stuff can be subtracted and in some ways Amtrak is already a PPP). Also why attack suburban trains for that matter too?
Why not push for the restoration of the Coast Daylight?
Why not push for expanded Auto-train services across the country?
Why not reduce over head costs and run mixed trains?
Even with HSR, I compare it to how the interstate highways are, traffic dosen’t begin or end with the intersate highways either. This is a trunk way.
Also John Thacker, I don’t like our current transport policy mess, but remember it was the vulgar libertarian socialists that started and continue this mess!
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