Ron Utt of the Heritage Foundation uses 2009 data to show that more than half the states send more gas taxes to the Treasury than they get back in federal transportation dollars. But the GAO uses 2005 through 2009 data to argue that, in fact, all the states have gotten back more than their residents paid in gas taxes.
It is likely that both are correct. Particularly in 2007 and 2008, the federal government spent more on surface transportation than it took in. If you spend more than you receive, then all everybody wins–except whoever has to eventually make up the difference.
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It would seem like Republicans hold all the cards since they are likely to gain seats in the House and maybe even control of the Senate in the November 2012 election. Yet House Transportation Committee chair John Mica was the first to blink, suggesting he is willing to give in to Senate demands not to reduce spending by 30 percent–which would only be possible by increasing the gas tax (which Mica claims to oppose) or through deficit spending (which the Tea Party Republicans oppose).
Mica is torn between the old days of “pork is a bi-partisan issue” and the present day of the Tea Party. It must be very hard for him, after seeing Don Young get all the glory (and campaign contributions) from being a free-spending Transportation Committee chair in 2005, to reach the seat of power just as the political winds change away from pork. Since the House is not likely to pass either a gas tax or a bill that requires deficit spending in 2012, the Antiplanner suspects that no reauthorization bill will pass until 2013, by which time it will be four years late.
As a self proclaimed liberal I have to give the GOP some credit in the recent change of stance. The GOP has always been anti-tax but it wasn’t until Barak Obama was elected that they became anti-spending (in action opposed to rhetoric).
All in all, it’s refreshing to see them actually owning the virtues they extol. Of course their plan is akin to loosing 20lbs by cutting off your leg, but as Mr. O’Toole points out, functionality and civility are long dead in congress. Before it’s all said and done we’ll probably see a culture war bloodbath and further economic devastation. By that time the idea of “gas tax user fees” may be long dead.
Randall:
Its pretty unlikely the Republicans are going to gain seats in the House.
1) They haven’t held more seats by much since the 1920’s. Nothing has changed since then, likethe return of urban Republican party machines.
2) The Democrats are significantly ahead on the generic ballot poll.
3) The Republican House is highly unpopular.
4) Its a Presidential election year with a Democratic incumbent who is likely to win with around 51% of the vote. The House usually trends towards the incumbents party in election years for obvious reasons.
5) Redistricting is proving a wash.
6) Mitt Romney. I’m sure everyone down at the country club is very excited about him.