As most Antiplanner readers know, Portlandia is a television comedy dedicated to making fun of the weird things that happen in Portland. The only problem is that (as actress Carrie Brownstone noted), “no matter how far out on a limb we went, we always ran into that person [in Portland] within two days.”
Such is the recent plan to rely on bicycles to rescue the city in the event of an earthquake or other natural disaster. “One of the bright, shining spots for Portland in a disaster like an earthquake is that we’re still going to get around,” a Portland disaster specialist told the Oregonian. “When roads are broken, when fuel supplies are cut, those kinds of things, you can bet that our city will still get around.”
On one hand, even the biggest cargo bikes will not be able to move the fire and rescue equipment needed to truly handle a natural disaster. On the other hand, even the worst earthquakes in modern times in the U.S. did not seriously impede the ability of motor vehicles to participate in rescue and recovery.
The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake damaged the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and one other freeway. The bridge was repaired in just over a month; there were plenty of alternative routes for people who normally used the damaged freeway.
More serious was the 1964 Alaska earthquake, which was the most powerful earthquake in North American history. There’s no doubt it did a lot of damage, though all but 15 of the 139 fatalities were from tsunamis that Portland doesn’t have to worry about. Recovery was expensive, but bicycles wouldn’t have helped.
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“Merely clearing roadways was an enormous task,” reports the Army Corps of Engineers. “As one bulldozer operator reported, ‘It took us twelve hours to cut through the biggest slide, and when we got through there was another just ahead.'”
“All the technology and equipment is here to build all kinds of things,” observes one Alaska resident. “After the earthquake they just needed to dust off the equipment and go to work.”
When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, the people with automobiles got out, and the people dependent on transit didn’t. This wasn’t because the city lacked a plan in case of a disaster. It had a great plan, but nobody bothered to implement it.
After New York, New Orleans had the second-lowest rate of auto ownership of any major city in the country. When the disaster took place, there were Portlandia-like planners who bemoaned the fact that New Orleans was too auto dependent: if only more people there relied on transit, they would have gotten out. This, of course, was exactly backwards.
Portland cyclists can have their fun fantasizing that they will come to the rescue in case of natural disaster. The city, however, is living dangerously when it thinks it can plan away the need for motor vehicles.
As a Portland resident who has to experience the failures of “planning” everyday I have to admit the prospect of depending on anyone at the municipal, state or federal level is downright comical. Nobody will be coming to rescue Portland – we are a class “B” priority – an outpost, that won’t have a single Light Rail, or Streetcar running after a major earthquake.
Tombdragon,
who knows, better prepared people in those hated exurbs might lend a hand to Portland snobs when the time comes. After all, the looting and criminal behavior often takes place in the central city.
The antiplanner is ignoring fuel shortages and traffic jams. After Loma Prieta in 1989, Katrina in 2005, and most recently Sandy in 2012, the affected regions experienced fuel shortages of varying severity. I have a friend in New Jersey who had to abandon his car for a week because he was unable to fuel it after Sandy. Bikes were easily the most reliable way to get around.
Also, refer to the experience of Hurricane Rita for an example of what happens when thousands of people with automobiles take to the roads in a mass evacuation. Severe gridlock (people reported idling on jammed highways for as much as 15 hours) combined with high heat led to 107 evacuation-related deaths.
http://www.theurbancountry.com/2011/03/japan-earthquake-tsunami-role-of.html
“While tens of thousands began walking home, others tried to buy bicycles. Tweets from Tokyo By Bike say bike shops are doing a brisk business selling bicycles to stranded workers. He reports that at least one bike shop has sold off its entire inventory, including high end bikes that run ¥300K (or 30??, about US$3700). – See more at: http://www.theurbancountry.com/2011/03/japan-earthquake-tsunami-role-of.html#sthash.iehSwHd9.dpuf”
It’s almost as if the Free Market finds some value in bicycles in the aftermath of an earthquake.
Yes, it’s truly Portlandia. Under Sam Adams, office supplies were delivered to City Haul by cargo trike; this is more of the same. Fuel will be nonexistent, but since there won’t be any bridges, bikes aren’t going to help much. Besides, if roads are wrecked, it’s a safe bet that the same will apply to bike paths. Certainly, bicycles will be useful in some areas, and under some circumstances – but hardly “crucial”, as portrayed in the article.
I’m thinking Portland City Hall planners are already risking lives in the city by “road diets” and curb extensions. Routine emergencies may increasingly find emergency vehicles slowed significantly by narrow streets where one idle car or bus can block a large segment of a major arterial road, like Southeast Division.
I really don’t understand how Hawthorne Blvd is able to keep two lanes each way while Division has been constricted to the point where it’s even hazardous to bike, walk or even drive near it. If Division is an example of Portland Transportation planning we better start preparing to park our cars in Clackamas County, walk back and forth to these cars, all in order to make a simple cross town drive.
Portland probably has enough useless expenditure going on to avoid charging its citizens the proposed Street maintenance tax.
a quick google search will show how invaluable bikes have been during modern urban disasters. after sandy, some of my relatives back east were ONLY able to get supplies via bike, roads being too debris filled and gas too precious to drive. having a neighbor or two with a cargo bike would prove very handy.
Disaster preparedness is a state of mind and begins at home. I live in Houston and I have been through two hurricanes and a couple of tropical storms. Mostly, what you do after a disaster, is clean up the mess and wait for the lights to come back on. After Hurricane Rita, we waited eleven days for electricity; after Hurricane Ike, we waited fifteen.
I keep my cars topped off with gas all summer and fall until Hurricane season passes. But yes, I have several bikes in the garage for post hurricane trips to the grocer and what not. Yes, you need bikes. You don’t waste the precious juice in the car until you are sure the filling stations will remain stocked. They won’t get stocked until they have electricity too. I also keep thirty gallons of clean drinking water on hand, five gallons of gas, two propane cylinders, thirty pounds of charcoal and lots of canned goods. I don’t have any power tools that require gas, preferring human powered tools, but I keep the gas on hand to share with the neighbors. It’s a good idea to have about three hundred dollars cash because credit card readers aren’t always available. The first order of business, when the lights go out, is cooking all the meat on hand and then eating it. That’s what the charcoal is for. You invite the neighbors to eat the meat with you. That is really, really important. The propane is for boiling water and all other cooking. The most important thing you can have during a disaster is friends and friendly relations with your neighbors. You will rely on them more than you can imagine.
The only government help that has any value, to you, after a disaster will be, in order: 1. Local Public Works 2. Local Fire Department 3. Local police. The rest of the state and federal authorities, combined, are worth less than the value of a bucket of piss. Please don’t argue otherwise unless you have been there already.
Good points eeldip and Jardinero. More about how important bicycles turned out to be after Sandy:
http://flavorwire.com/353581/a-discussion-on-bicycles-new-york-city-and-the-future
I think the antiplanner might want to reconsider his tactic of ridicule-by-association. Bicycles -> Portlandia. Walkable Neighborhoods -> brew pubs for yuppies, etc..
To sociopathic government planners, a earthquake is merely the “cracking eggs” part of making an omelet, in Father Lenin’s words. Once that evil “car-centric” infrastructure is all wiped out, biking, transit (which will be magically unaffected as long as it’s rail-based), and walking can take over, and society will be enjoying flying light rail (not cars, cause cars are evil), and bike jet packs before long!
If Portland was serious about preparing for a disaster, it would repeal the Oregon anti-gouging laws that makes sure that people and businesses don’t prepare much for a disaster. Gas stations would have back up generators to operate with the power off, except they would never pay for themselves due to these laws.
http://business.time.com/2012/11/02/post-sandy-price-gouging-economically-sound-ethically-dubious/
http://www.doj.state.or.us/consumer/pages/price_gouging.aspx
If the roads are so badly damaged by an earthquake that they cannot be driven on, what will the bikes use? Also, most of the anecdotes here seem to be related to hurricanes. Portland is even less likely to be hit by a hurricane than it is by an earthquake.
this is, of course, what we call in the trade, a “straw man” argument
Ie: you invent something to complain about when you don’t have anything real to complain about
its nice to see from reading the comments, that most folks saw right through it however
If the roads are so badly damaged by an earthquake that they cannot be driven on, what will the bikes use?
Bikes can be carried if necessary – they don’t weigh a ton each like a car does.
Portland is even less likely to be hit by a hurricane than it is by an earthquake.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Coastal_Gale_of_2007#Oregon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Valley_Flood_of_1996
Bikes can be carried if necessary – they don’t weigh a ton each like a car does.
Hmmm. A moderate-level flood and a moderate-level storm. No earthquake. And neither critically impaired Portland.
By the way, what good would it do to carry your bike in the middle of an intense storm? If roads are closed due to flooding, why would you care if you had a bike? Wouldn’t a canoe be more helpful?
I guess bikes won’t do you much good, MJ. But there’s been plenty of evidence presented that they have helped others in earthquakes and hurricanes.
Bikes will fill a small niche, maybe for a few days, like they do in everyday commuting.
I’d rather have a motocross bike.
When the October 2009 disaster hit Portland, the people were mostly walking. Not many bikes.
See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0PftRLw14U
Jardinero,
Mostly, what you do after a disaster, is clean up the mess and wait for the lights to come back on. After Hurricane Rita, we waited eleven days for electricity; after Hurricane Ike, we waited fifteen.
One interesting thing that utility monopolies have done – and is getting more play as weather disasters occur at an increasing rate – is require rooftop solar to shut off if they can’t power into the grid.
Because one reason you want rooftop solar is to power your refrigerator if the grid is down, so why this shut-off? Of course it is monopoly power. And now you have to keep full gas cans around to power your generator until the trees are cleared so you can get to the gas station. Anyhoo, I think your state will be one of the tipping points that overturns this monopoly practice. A few years of rooftop solar electricity prices and it’ll start moving.
DS
Dan – You know how when a disaster like hurricanes and tornadoes and earthquakes strike a region, that everyone wants their power restored in hours and days? You know that thousands of people have to work 24 hours a day to do that, clearing lines and restoring power? Those people are heroes, right?
Well, those linemen get killed when houses energize the lines on the other side of the power source. Yet you mock the power companies for keeping their hero workers alive.
Planners flunk out of engineering classes, but they still think they are smarter than physics.
Sandy, I’m not sure what you are arguing, because I was advocating for the opposite of energizing the lines in the aftermath of a disaster. See, many utilities won’t let you generate power just for yourself in such circumstances. See Sandy, New Jersey. Deracho, East Coast.
HTH
DS
Dan,
In Texas you can legally run a generator or solar or whatever when the power is out. Your breaker box has to be set up differently though.
Sandy, I read Dan’s comments too, and he indeed was mocking power companies for trying to protect their workers. But planners do not value human lives, unless its their own (sic, government planners don’t really qualify as human). That is why government planners are responsible for a quarter billion deaths in just the 20th century alone.
In Texas you can legally run a generator or solar or whatever when the power is out. Your breaker box has to be set up differently though.
This is where you guys are ahead (besides all the wind energy in your grid), Jardinero – many folks during Sandy and the derecho thought their rooftop solar was going to run their refrigerator, and were angry when they could not, so one reason for purchase/lease was shot down. I think TX is one of the leaders in this regard, and once electric cars become common your battery back-up is right there. Elon Musk is very aware of this and is keen to be integrated into the new Smart Grid (which may be partly mobile).
Now if TX can only get over the hump for solar leasing…
DS
Hello Dan, I think that Solar Leasing has a big future. The real problem, in Texas, with Solar PV, is Windstorm, Hurricane and Hail. The two biggest metros, comprising nearly 13 million people are in the middle of Tornado and Hurricane Alley. As you may know, I sell insurance. Many, but not all of the carriers I work with consider homes with solar panels an un-insurable risk. That is around here they do. A carrier who won’t accept a solar house in Texas may have different underwriting standards in Arizona. The solar industry has to answer questions about these risks before they can get the insurance companies, in Texas. on board.
On another note, this is not solar, but very cool nonetheless. There is a subdivision being built in West Houston that offers these as an option. Very, very energy efficient. For those who worry about CO2 emissions this is comparable to wind or solar. For those who like low, low energy bills this is a cool solution. Next time I replace my HVAC I am installing this.
http://mcogen.com/images/pdf/Houstonchronicle.pdf
http://mcogen.com/m-cogen-products/power-aire/how-works-vs-hvac.html
Jardinero, thank you for that article. I was unaware co-generation was rolled out into the market. Good news.
I do remember the storms you get from my year of living in Dallas – I remember the tremendous rain we got from a feeder band of Gilbert. I’ve never seen it rain as hard anywhere else as there. We get much wind and hail here as well. One solar company here prefers the east side of a roof as that direction seems to get less hail damage, and also AIUI if you get away from the cheap Chinese production panels the coatings-glass are more resistant to hail, so we seem to cope & bet you folks will to. I think your market is poised and ready to go big.
DS
If Portland was smart, we would keep a list of BOAT owners. In an earthquake- motor boats would be crucial if bridges collapsed. There are about 20 boats in my general neighborhood..
“When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, the people with automobiles got out, and the people dependent on transit didn’t. This wasn’t because the city lacked a plan in case of a disaster. It had a great plan, but nobody bothered to implement it. ”
For those who don’t remember the photos of hundreds of unused school buses , you won’t remember New Orleans Mayor Kagin refusing to use school buses to evacuate the people while it was still possible, and, after the disaster was overwhelming, he demanded that the state or feds send him “f—ing Greyhounds”. His words, not mine.
A lot of people died as a direct result of their depending on the local government to use mass transit to save them. Nothing happened to these officials for causing all of these deaths. They blamed Bush, of course.
The plan should be to be independent of government, in case of disaster, and have stores that include food, water, fuel, medical supplies to be able to survive exclusive of government interference. Government was a no show in New Orleans, and on the shores of New England during Sandy. It has to be recognised that “people” have a duty to themselves and their family to be able to expect to be able to “live well” even in the face of disaster.