Applying Value Engineering to Transit Projects

In 1997, Tidewater Regional Transit—which served Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia—proposed to build an 18-mile light-rail line between the two cities. Virginia Beach voters, however, rejected the plan. So, in 2000, the transit agency (which since 1999 had been known as Hampton Roads Transit) decided to build 7.4 miles from downtown Norfolk to the Norfolk-Virginia Beach city limit. In 2003, the project was estimated to cost less than $200 million and attract 10,500 riders a day.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Few places were less suited to rail transit, which is mainly designed to bring lots of commuters into job-rich downtowns. Although the Hampton Roads area has nearly 1.5 million people, it doesn’t have any large job-filled downtowns. According to Wendell Cox’s analysis of central business districts, downtown Norfolk had fewer than 25,000 jobs in the mid- to late-2000s, and fewer than 800 of them took transit to work. Continue reading

January Transit Ridership Down 65.7%

Transit agencies carried only 34.3 percent as many riders in January 2021 as in January 2020, according to data released by the Federal Transit Administration last Friday. This is a sharp drop from the previous four months, when ridership was 37 to 38 percent of 2019 numbers.

The latest Amtrak data show that its fortunes have improved slightly, as the passenger miles it carried (as a percent of the previous year) grew from 22.4 percent in December to 26.8 percent in January. That’s still pretty pitiful. Continue reading

Blaming the Messenger

Ridership on New York City subways is down by 67 percent from before the pandemic. Metropolitan Transportation Authority CEO Sarah Feinberg says it is all the media’s fault.

The MTA “was really ill-served by some of the early coverage of the pandemic,” she says. “People started thinking, ‘the last place I want to be is in a crowded subway car.'” She claims that “study after study” has found that transit was not “vectoring the virus.”

The New York Post article reporting on her statement snarks that she made it “without referencing specific studies.” But what do you expect? The Post, after all, is part of the media. Continue reading

Transit Wins Big in $1.9 Trillion Relief Bill

The $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill passed by the House of Representatives last week would give public transit more money than any other form of transportation: $30 billion. Airports and airlines, which before the pandemic moved 14 times as many passenger miles as transit, would receive $23 billion if the bill is approved by the Senate.

Amtrak, which is even more trivial than transit, would get $1.8 billion, some of which would be dedicated to restoring long-distance trains to daily service and some of which is to pay for state-supported trains under the probably fallacious assumption that the states can’t afford to do so during the pandemic. In 2019, Amtrak carried about 10 percent as many passenger-miles as transit.

If the last few months of 2020 are an indication of what will happen in 2021, then the airlines will carry 450 billion fewer passenger-miles than in 2019; transit 34 billion fewer; and Amtrak 4.5 billion fewer. The subsidies per each passenger-mile they won’t be carrying amount to 5 cents for the airlines, 40 cents for Amtrak, and 88 cents for transit. Of course, subsidizing someone for not doing something is ridiculous, but only typical for Congress. Continue reading

Ridership Down, Crime Up

Subway ridership may be down by 67 percent, but subway crime has doubled. New York City subways have seen eight murders since the pandemic began, and the six people murdered in 2020 were twice the number in 2019. Rapes have also doubled and robberies and other violent crimes have increased as well.

This mirrors the 11 percent decline in driving in the third quarter of 2020 that was accompanied by a 13 percent increase in traffic fatalities. Yet murders and other violent crimes are much more likely to deter transit riders than accidents are to discourage auto drivers.
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To counter this, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority is asking the city to triple the number of police monitoring the subways, adding 1,500 patrol officers. At an average of $100,000 per police officer, including salary and benefits, this would cost taxpayers about $150 million per year. Since this comes out of city funds rather than MTA’s budget, this is a hidden subsidy to transit. Even with increased police, public awareness of such crimes will be one more obstacle to transit recovery after the pandemic.

Are Accidents of History Irreversible?

There’s a popular belief that the federal government began subsidizing public transit and Amtrak to protect the environment and help provide mobility to low-income people. In fact, while energy and poverty later became excuses for continuing subsidies that had already begun, neither of these issues were on Congress’ collective mind when it began subsidizing transit in 1964 and created Amtrak in 1970. Instead, both of these programs are little more than accidents of history.

Click image to download a three-page PDF of this policy brief.

Transit: Saving Big-City Downtowns

The environment wasn’t even an issue when Congress created the Urban Mass Transit Administration and started giving federal grants to local transit agencies in 1964. Nor was helping poor people a major concern. Instead, the primary goal of federal transit funding was to protect the value of downtown properties in a few big cities. Continue reading

News Bulletin: Young People Are Naive

“One thing Millennials are’t killing?” the headline on an article from National Public Radio read last week: “Public transportation.” Such a story might have been relevant a year or two ago. Today, when transit ridership is down by more than 60 percent, it is an example of spectacularly poor timing, like writing about how we should all invest in GameStop.

Millennials (ages 25-44) are a little more likely to commute by transit than previous generations, but members of Generation Z (ages 16-24) or less likely to do so.

One thing NPR is good at is putting a human face on the data published by various government and private entities. The problem in this story is that they forgot to see if the data actually backed up their anecdotes. They don’t. Continue reading

Transit 2020: Subsidies Up, Ridership Down

The transit industry carried 37.5 percent as many riders in December 2020 as it had in December 2019, according to data released last week by the Federal Transit Administration. This is a slight increase over the 36.9 percent carried in November. For the year as a whole, it ended up carrying 46.1 percent as many riders as it had transported in 2019.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The industry had begun the year carrying about 6 to 7 percent more riders than the first two months of 2019, suggesting that it might have been about to turn around the decline that it had experienced over the previous five years. The pandemic foiled this recovery, and the industry avoided total disaster only by the American Public Transportation Association and transit agencies convincing Congress to give transit $25 billion in April and $12 billion in December, with more on the way. This has taught the transit industry a perverse lesson: it doesn’t have to actually carry many passengers to continue to receive subsidies. Continue reading

New Flyer Announces Level 4 Bus

Bus manufacturer New Flyer has announced that it has level 4 autonomous buses ready for sale. Level 4 means no human driver will be necessary as long as the bus says on its designated route.

New Flyer’s autonomous bus will have at least a dozen LIDAR, radar, and optical sensors. Click image to download a brochure about the bus.

The intelligence for the buses will be provided by Robotic Research, which until recently focused mainly on developing small delivery vehicles that can operate on sidewalks. Moving from tiny delivery carts to 40-foot buses is quite a leap. Continue reading

APTA Demands $39.3 Billion More for Transit

The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) has proclaimed that transit agencies will need nearly $40 billion more in subsidies, on top of the tens of billions in subsidies they already get, to survive through the end of 2023. It backs this up with a so-called “independent study” that is hardly independent as APTA paid for it. APTA also points out with distress that 65 percent of transit agencies were forced to cut service in 2020.

This $39.3 billion is part of a $111.3 billion transportation package being sought by unions and other interest groups. The package includes $40 billion for school buses, motor coaches, and ferry companies; $15 billion for airline employees; and $17 billion for airports. Note that almost none of this money will end up assisting any actual travelers; it is all for unions and bureaucrats.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to include $30 billion for transit in the next COVID relief bill. This is $10 billion more than President Biden asked for in his $1.9 trillion relief bill. Transit agencies like the New York MTA are already rubbing their hands in gleeful anticipation of these funds. Continue reading