Search Results for: reauthorization

Transportation Cliff or Pothole?

By | | Transportation
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Recent news reports have zeroed in on Washington’s next cliff, the transportation cliff that is expected to happen when the federal Highway Trust Fund runs out of money sometime this summer. Most of these articles have a hidden agenda: to increase spending for transit even though transit now gets 20 percent of federal surface transport dollars but carries little more than 1 percent of the travel carried by automobiles (about 55 billion passenger miles by transit vs. 4.3 trillion passenger miles in cars and light trucks). This article will help explain the politics of the transportation cliff.

1. Why are we about to go off a transportation cliff?

Since 1956, federal highway programs have been paid for out of federal gasoline taxes. These taxes go into the so-called Highway Trust Fund (“so-called” because it’s not very trustworthy) and then are distributed to the states for highway construction and maintenance. In 1982, Congress began dedicating a small but growing share of gas taxes to transit. Today, more than 20 percent of federal gas taxes are spent on transit, and there is no guarantee that the remaining 80 percent goes for highways, as Congress often diverts some to such things as bike paths, national park visitor centers, museums, and other local pork barrel.

Congress reauthorizes this spending every few years. Traditionally, an authorization bill provides a spending ceiling. But the 2005 reauthorization bill made spending mandatory, meaning the ceiling was also the floor. When the 2008 financial crisis led to a reduction in driving, gas tax revenues failed to keep up with spending. Since then Congress has had to supplement gas taxes with about $55 billion in general funds in order to keep the Highway Trust Fund from running out of money.

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Obama’s Transportation Plan

By | | News commentary, Transportation
4 Comments

President Obama’s latest transportation “vision” is as unrealistic as Governor Brown’s plan to pay for high-speed rail with cap-and-trade revenues. Obama proposes that Congress spend $302 billion on surface transportation over the next four years, or $75.5 billion a year. This is nearly $25 billion more per year than Congress is spending today, which is already $10 billion more per year than federal surface transportation revenues.

In the 2012 round of transportation reauthorization, the debate was whether to limit spending to actual revenues of about $40 billion a year or continue spending at historic rates of about $50 billion a year. Senate Democrats prevailed at the $50 billion rate, but only by agreeing to limit the bill to just two years instead of the usual six. That compromise expires this year just before the Highway Trust Fund runs out of money due to overspending.

In 2012, revenues (mainly from fuel taxes but also excise taxes on truck tires, trucks, buses, and trailers) in 2012 were $40.2 billion. By law, $5.0 billion of this was dedicated to transit. Congress actually spent $8.2 billion on transit while $41.1 billion nominally went to highways (but in fact some of this also went for transit and other non-highway programs). Spending increased by more than revenues in 2013 and 2014.

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The $10 Billion Battle

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Senate Democrats propose to spend $54 billion next year on transportation and housing. House Republicans want to spend just $44 billion, but President Obama has threatened to veto such a paltry bill.

Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid claim the House bill poses a threat to the nation’s infrastructure, with many citing the collapse of the Skagit River Bridge as an example. But that bridge fell down because it was struck by an oversized truck, not because of any infrastructure shortfall. Besides, the Senate bill only includes $500 million for bridge replacements.

Where will the other $9.5 billion go? Things like Amtrak (half a billion), TIGER grants for such “critical infrastructure” as new streetcars ($1 billion); and $123 million more for New Starts than the House bill. On the housing side, the Senate bill would spend $1.6 billion more than the House on Community Development Block Grants and $75 more than House on “livability” (on which the House proposed to spend zero).

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Presentations

The Antiplanner gives about three dozen presentations a year on a variety of topics. Most of the presentations below include a summary of the narration in the notes section. All of the charts in these presentations are in the public domain and may be freely distributed or used in your own presentations. I make every effort to use photographs that are in the public domain or under a creative commons license, but may have accidentally included some that are copyrighted, so it is best to try to find the photo’s origin before publishing the photos. If you find any that are copyrighted, let me know and I’ll take them down.

Land-Use Presentations

Presentations about planning in Lafayette, Louisiana: the Lafayette Comprehensive Plan (40 megabytes); the Lafayette Unified Development Code (14 megabytes); a somewhat different version of the presentation on the Lafayette Unified Development Code made before the Lafayette city/parish council (12 megabytes, all in Powerpoint format).

Maintaining the Texas Miracle by protecting property rights (8.0-MB PowerPoint show), given on January 8, 2015 in Austin, Texas.

Debate with Myron Orfield (11.6-MB PowerPoint or 10.5-MB PDF version) on September 24, 2014, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Presentation made to the San Antonio Tea Party about smart growth and transit issues in PDF (35 MB), PowerPoint format without videos (40 MB) or PowerPoint format with videos (122 MB).

Presentation about the Twin Cities Thrive plan made to the Southwest Metro Tea Party in Chanhassen on August 4, 2014, downloadable as a Zip file (111 MB including video) or PPT file (32 MB, no video)

Presentation about Plan Bay Area downloadable as a 16-MB PDF or a 57-MB zip file containing the PowerPoint show plus two videos of driverless cars. This presentation is considerably longer than the one used in the debate (below).

Presentation at the Canadian Property Rights Conference in Ottawa on September 14, 2013 (11.6-MB PDF).

Review of Plan Bay Area, a short (10-minute) presentation given as a part of a debate over the future of the San Francisco Bay Area (5.3-MB PowerPoint). The same presentation as a 3.1-MB PDF with the narrative in notes.

Freedom of Movement, presentation given at the Educational Policy Conference in St. Louis, January, 2013 (20 MB)

Land-Use Regulation and Housing, 350-slide presentation given to the Professional Land Surveyors of Oregon, Salem, January, 2013 in PDF (49 MB) or in PowerPoint format with videos (89 MB)

Smart Growth and Property Rights in California, presentation given in Camarilla, June, 2012 (67 MB)

Smart Growth and Property Rights, presentation given in SeaTac, Washington, March, 2012 (82 MB)

Debate with James Howard Kunstler, presentation given at Brown University, Providence, April 2010 (30 MB) — Same presentation in PDF (30 MB)

Smart Growth and Property Rights in Montana, presentation given in Bozeman in February, 2010 (16 MB) — Same presentation in PDF (16 MB)

The Best-Laid Plans, presentation made in Wichita, February, 2010 (26 MB)

The Costs of Smart Growth in Portland is a companion to my 2001 book, The Vanishing Automobile. Though it is a decade old, it can still be useful, especially as it comes fully narrated. The narration also makes it 128 MB, so be prepared for a long download unless you have a really fast connection.

The Costs of Smart Growth in San Jose is a fully narrated version of the Portland show prepared for San Jose. It is 216 MB so will take even longer to download. However, you can play either the Portland or San Jose shows for the public by hooking your computer to a projector and speakers.

Tax-Increment Financing Presentations

Tax-Increment Financing in Louisiana, presentation given in Lafayette, LA in June, 2011 (20 MB)

Tax-Increment Financing in Idaho, presentation given to the Idaho Freedom Foundation in Boise in November, 2009 (13 MB)

Streetcar Presentations

Milwaukee Streetcar Plan Critique, presentation given in Milwaukee in March, 2013 (18 MB) — Same presentation in PDF (15 MB)

Critique of San Antonio Streetcar Plan, presentation given in San Antonio, November, 2012 (61 MB)

Boise streetcar presentation given to the Idaho Freedom Foundation in Boise in December, 2011 (11 MB)

American Nightmare Presentations

American Nightmare, presentation given about housing issues in Atlanta in March, 2013 (13 MB) — Same presentation in PDF (10 MB)

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Faster, Cheaper, Safer, and More Convenient, the keys to insuring that transportation spending leads to economic growth (66-MB PowerPoint show with videos); show given on January 8, 2015, in Austin, Texas

Here is a 14-MB PDF of an October 8, 2013 presentation given in Bakersfield, California on why high-speed rail won’t relieve congestion and what we should do instead. The videos of self-driving cars that were in the presentations are in this 10-MB zip file.

Gridlock, presentation about the Antiplanner’s book given in Albuquerque to the Rio Grande Foundation, May, 2010 (35 MB) — also download media files to get video (53 MB)

Gridlock, presentation about the Antiplanner’s book given in Dallas to the National Center for Policy Analysis, April, 2010 (29 MB) — also download media files to get video (63 MB)

Rail Transit Presentations

A presentation on the failed Norfolk light rail and the plan to extend it to Virginia Beach, given in Virginia Beach on October 16, 2014 (33-MB PDF).

Presentation in St. Petersburg about the proposed Pinellas light rail (18-MB PDF)

Presentation in Austin about the proposed Austin light rail (24-MB PDF)

Presentation about light rail made to residents of St. Paul’s Daytons Bluff neighborhood on August 5, 2014, Zip file (82 MB with video) or PPT file (39 MB, no video)

Presentation about transit and transportation made to the Metro North Chamber of Commerce, Coon Rapids, Minnesota on August 6, 2014, Zip file (98 MB with video) or PPT file (15 MB, no video)

Light-Rail Transit in St. Petersburg, presentation given in St. Petersburg, April, 2012 (78 MB)

Critique of Proposed Honolulu Rail Project, presentation given in Honolulu, February, 2012 (17 MB)

Critique of Columbia River Crossing and Vancouver Light Rail, presentation in Vancouver, Washington, October, 2011 (12 MB)

Light-Rail Transit in Vancouver, Washington, presentation given in Vancouver, March, 2010 (14 MB)

Light-Rail Transit in Tampa, presentation given in Tampa, September, 2010 (26 MB)

Can Rail Transit Save Energy and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? presentation given in Washington, DC, April, 2008 (13 MB)

Other Transportation Presentations

Presentation about transportation planning and property rights given to the Spokane Chapter of the Citizens Alliance for Property Rights on May 22, 2015 (31.2-MB Powerpoint format).

A review of a proposed transit plan and tax increase for Spokane in PowerPoint (13.5 MB) or PDF format (9.0 MB).

A presentation on autonomous vehicles, mass transit, and long-range transportation planning given on Capital Hill on October 15, 2014 (20-MB PDF).

A presentation about high-speed rail, with particular reference to the proposed “Zip Train” from Minneapolis to Rochester, given on August 8, 2014 in PDF (18 MB).

A presentation on an Indianapolis transit plan can be downloaded as a 16-MB PDF.

Ending Congestion by Refinancing Highways, presentation in Washington, DC, May, 2012 (2 MB)

The Case for Privatizing Transit, presentation given in Washington, DC, July, 2011 (40 MB)

Rails Won’t Save America, presentation on high-speed rail and rail transit given at MIT in November, 2010 (46 MB) — also download media files to get video (40 MB) — Same presentation in PDF (64 MB)

Transportation Reauthorization, presentation given in Washington, DC, September, 2009 (13 MB)

The Case Against High-Speed Rail, presentation given to the Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC, June 2009 (9 MB)

A Nation in Decline?

By | | News commentary
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Without a doubt, yesterday’s election was the most important one held in America at least since 2010, and possibly even 2008. Der Spiegel, the German magazine, argues that the election campaign is evidence that the United States is a nation in decline. Certainly the political system is having its problems, but Der Spiegel‘s prescription of going further into debt to build high-speed trains and other European follies is a dubious way to fix those problems.

The real decline is in the Republican Party, which couldn’t manage to capture the White House or the Senate despite high unemployment and other economic problems. Republicans began shooting themselves in their collective feet early in the last decade when they made immigration a big issue, thus earning the enmity of Latinos, the nation’s fastest-growing and second-most important ethnic group.

Unfortunately, our two-party system too often limits voters to a choice between a social & fiscal liberal vs. a social & fiscal conservative (or, worse, a social & fiscal liberal vs. a social conservative & fiscal liberal). A large percentage of potential voters don’t feel comfortable in either party, and the libertarian side of me thinks, or hopes, that many of those “independents” are socially liberal but fiscally conservative.

By focusing on fiscal issues, the tea parties seemed to provide an alternate route, one that set social issues (few of which are really decided at the federal level anyway) aside. But too many Republican candidates made social issues a major part of their campaigns, thus alienating both Democrats and independents. Romney didn’t help by offering an inconsistent message, as often criticizing the president for cutting budgets, such as medicare and defense, as for spending money.

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Highway Fund Uncertainty Leads to Ratings Cut

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Citing uncertainties about the health of the federal Highway Trust Fund, Fitch has cut its ratings on state highway bonds in several states from AA- to A+. The bonds being cut are “grant anticipation revenue” or GARVEE bonds, which are supposed to be repaid out of federal grants.

In recent years, Congressional overspending of the Highway Trust Fund has required Congress to periodically appropriate general funds to transportation. Fitch is worried that Congress may fail to provide such funds, and is also concerned that recent passage of a two-year (instead of the traditional six-year) reauthorization of federal transportation programs creates uncertainties about those programs.

Certain transit agencies also saw their ratings cut from A- to BBB+. These include the Chicago Transit Authority, New Jersey Transit, and the Alaska Railroad, all of which receive federal transit funds out of the Highway Trust Fund. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the highway portion of the Highway Trust Fund will run out of money in 2014 and the transit portion will run out in 2015.

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The Highway Trust Fund Is Doomed

By | | Transportation
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Congress is wrangling over how to spend federal gas taxes, with the Senate wanting to spend about $15 billion per year more than revenues while the House modestly wants to spend only about $10 billion per year more than revenues. But according to the Congressional Budget Office, the money they have to argue about will soon dramatically decline.

Obama’s fuel economy rules, the CBO says, will reduce per-mile fuel consumption faster than the increase in driving. As a result, by 2040 total gas tax revenues will decline by more than 20 percent. That means less money for highways, transit, bike paths, and whatever else Congress wants to spend the so-called Highway Trust Fund on.

The House and Senate conference committee will begin meeting on May 8 to iron out the differences between the bill that passed the Senate and the one that passed the House Transportation Committee but not the full House. Republican members on the House side include Mica (FL), Duncan (TN), Young (AK), Hanna (NY), Shuster (PA), Capito (WV), Crawford (AR), Beutler (WA), Cravaack (MN), Ribble (WI), Buschon (IN), Southerland (FL), Lankford (OK), Camp (MI), Tiberi (OH), Hastings (WA), Bishop (UT), Upton (MI), Whitfield (KY), and Hall (TX). Several of them, including Mica, Shuster, and Young, are known to be fond of pork barrel.

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Transportation Bill Going to Conference Committee

By | | Transportation
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The House and Senate plan to hold conference committee negotiations over the transportation reauthorization bill. Early this year, the House Transportation Committee had approved the most fiscally conservative reauthorization bill considered by congress since 1991, if not since 1982. Yet the bill never reached the floor of the House due to opposition from fiscal conservatives who said that the bill wasn’t fiscally conservative enough.

So the negotiations will center around the Senate bill, which is far from fiscally conservative in any sense of the word. It requires far more deficit spending than the House bill. It continues to divert a huge share of federal gas taxes to transit, which the House bill would have ended. And it includes all sorts of provisions that have nothing to do with transportation. In short, it is basically a continuation of the 2005 law with a few minor expansions of government power and spending.
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Naturally, House Democrats are elated. Transportation writer Ken Orski says it is likely that numerous “questionable items . . . have been slipped into this massive 1,600-plus page bill” (which is nearly twice as long as the House bill had been). The real fiscal conservatives in the House better do everything they can to kill the conference bill or the gamble they waged killing the House bill will come back to bite them.

Brinkmanship

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Having failed to pass a reauthorization bill, Congress has only a few hours to extend the current law, which expires on Saturday. On Tuesday, however, the House failed to pass a 90-day extension to the law. On Wednesday, it failed to pass a 60-day extension to the law.

Supporters of an extension are are making all kinds of dire predictions of what will happen if the law isn’t extended: states won’t get federal dollars, so they will have to cancel or postpone projects, which will put people out of work, etc. No doubt these claims are exaggerated: states typically borrow money and eventually repay it with their share of federal formula funds. A delay of a few days is not going to make much of a difference.

Curiously, the main opponents of an extension are Democrats who are holding out for the House to support the Senate bill. But, as Ken Orski describes in two articles, the Senate bill is unsustainable and Congress will have to face budget shortfalls by raising taxes, increasing deficit spending, or reducing spending.

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One More Chance

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Construction on Honolulu’s ill-conceived rail line–at least $5.7 billion, and more likely at least $7 billion, for a 20-mile elevated line–is supposed to start next month. Polls indicate that voters who once supported the project have turned against it. Fortunately, Hawai’ians have one more chance to stop this idiotic project before too much money is wasted.

Artist’s conception of Honolulu’s planned elevated rail line.

The incumbent pro-rail mayor, Peter Carlisle, who filled the seat in a special election when the previous pro-rail mayor made an ill-fated run for governor, is up for reelection this year. A surprise entry into the race is Ben Cayetano, Hawai’i’s governor from 1994 to 2002, who decided to run solely to stop the rail project.

“Adding $5 to $7 billion in debt for an elevated, heavy rail system that will not reduce traffic congestion and will suck the air out of the city’s ability to provide more important basic services does not make sense,” says Cayetano in a comment posted on an interview where Senator Daniel Inouye endorses Carlisle. The only other major candidate in the race is also pro-rail.

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