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Towards Global Peace and Prosperity

By | | Policy brief
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Three years ago, it was easy to be optimistic about the future. World poverty was in rapid decline. Many major diseases had been nearly eradicated. Global trade tied nations together, limiting military conflicts in most of the world outside of the Middle East. Thanks to good old American innovation, energy prices were low. Most environmental problems, including air and water pollution, were either solved or proven solvable. While doomsayers made dire predictions about climate change, it was hard to take them seriously when their prescriptions were the same tired old central planning ideas they had always advocated even though most of those ideas would, in fact, increase greenhouse gas emissions.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief..

Today, it is much easier to be pessimistic. The COVID-19 pandemic not only killed at least 6 million people (with perhaps a third of them in the U.S.), it revealed several critical weaknesses in the global trading system. Congress’ response to the pandemic, which was to dump trillions of dollars into the economy without increasing economic productivity, caused the worst inflation America has seen in 40 years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is leading to both energy and food shortages around the world that are bound to get worse as the war continues. On top of this, the conflict has revived fears of nuclear war.

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March Driving 2% More Than Before the Pandemic

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 2.1 percent more miles in March 2022 than in March 2019, thus returning to more than 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to data released late last week by the Federal Highway Administration. Driving first exceeded 100 percent of pre-pandemic in July 2021 and remained above 100 percent through the end of the year. It then dipped below 100 percent in January and February, but now is back above 100 percent.

See this post for sources of data for air, transit, and Amtrak.

As noted here before, air travel is approaching 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels, while Amtrak is still below 70 percent and transit has just barely breeched 60 percent. I suspect transit will fall below 60 percent in April as March 2022 had two more work days than March 2019 while April 2022 had one fewer work day than April 2019. Continue reading →

New Trolleys for Philadelphia

By | | Transportation
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The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) is buying new vehicles to replace 130 light-rail cars. Normally, my suggestion when rail systems wear out is to replace them with buses, but in this case it’s worth a close look.

One of SEPTA’s 40-year-old light-rail cars. Photo by jpmueller99.

The 130 cars are expected to cost $800 million, or a little over $6.1 million apiece. That’s a lot more than a bus, which typically costs under $500,000 if Diesel-powered and under $1 million if electric. But buses have an expected lifespan of only about 15 years, while SEPTA’s light-rail cars are 40 years old. The railcars are also a little larger than buses, having 50 seats compared with an average of 40 seats on SEPTA buses. Still, the railcars cost more than $3,000 per seat-year, while even million-dollar buses cost only $1,666 per seat-year. Continue reading →

DC Metro Hires New General Manager

By | | Transportation
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The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s (Metro) next general manager and CEO, Randy Clarke, brings an interesting resume to the job. The troubled agency is suffering from serious safety issues, including frequent derailments and the failure of hundreds of train operators to renew their certification, not to mention transit ridership lagging behind the rest of the industry and serious financial woes. The problems are so bad that the agency’s current CEO, Paul Wiedefeld, just resigned early.

Washington Metro’s 7000-series of rail cars, which makes up 60 percent of its fleet, have all been taken out of service due to frequent derailments, a problem that won’t be fixed for at least several more months. Photo by Ben Schumin.

At first glance, Clarke is the perfect person to replace Wiedefeld. From 2010 to 2016, he worked on safety and operations at Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority. The American Public Transportation Association apparently thought he did such a good job that it hired him as its vice president in charge of safety, operations, and technical services, a post he held for two years. Then he became CEO of Capital Metro, Austin’s transit agency. Continue reading →

Hybrid Offices in Manhattan

By | | Transportation
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As of the end of April, 72 percent of Manhattan office workers were back at work in their offices. Most, however, were working there only three days a week or less. On any given weekday, only 38 percent of offices were occupied, according to a survey released by the Partnership for New York City. Of the ones who have returned to their offices, more are working there just two days a week than any other schedule.

Currently, working at home full-time is most common among former Manhattan office workers, followed by working in the office two days a week.

The Partnership survey also asked how employers expect people to be working in September. By that time, about a third expect to work in offices three days a week, but 14 percent still expect to work at home full time. On any given weekday, slightly less than half of offices will be occupied. Continue reading →

The Automobile Won

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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Last month, anti-automobile activists led by the Congress for the New Urbanism announced the formation of a national Freeway Fighters Network. The network opposes new freeways and freeway expansions and wants to shift freeway money to other forms of transportation. Among other things, they object to new freeway capacity because it induces more highway travel.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

I have a message for these anti-auto activists: The war on the automobile is over. The automobile won. More accurately, auto drivers and users won. It is time for those engaged in this war to stop wasting their time, and everyone else’s, and start doing something productive. People concerned about the impacts of the automobile should give up trying to reduce driving, which has never worked, and instead encourage new automobiles and highways that are safer, cleaner, and more energy efficient.

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Seattle’s Sound Transit Is Officially Insane

By | | Transportation
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Mariya Frost, of the Washington Policy Center, has alerted me that Seattle should be added to the list of cities with transit projects gone wild. Sound Transit, the region’s rail transit authority, has raised the projected costs of projects built between 2017 and 2046 from $54 billion to $142 billion.

An artist’s impression of a planned Seattle light-rail line. Notice that the artist didn’t project any decline in automobiles or driving. Photo from Siemens.

Most of the increase is for the cost of building 62 miles of light-rail lines. Seattle already had the most-expensive light-rail system in the nation, but the latest costs are completely insane. Continue reading →

Housing Policy Debate

By | | Housing
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Last week, the Antiplanner participated in a Federalist Society debate over housing issues, which can now be downloaded as a podcast. Leading off the debate was Richard Rothstein, an NAACP-affiliated attorney whose book, The Color of Law, argued that zoning and lending has historically discriminated against blacks. His presentation claimed that such discrimination continues in today’s suburbs and his solution was to rezone the suburbs to allow lower-cost housing such as garden apartments and townhouses.

Land-use policies that artificially increase housing shortages force more people to live in apartments when they would rather live in single-family homes. Photo by Pubdog.

Next came Vanderbilt University law professor Christopher Serkin, who said that he personally favored higher density development but noted that most Americans did not. He was followed by Notre Dame law school professor Nichole Garnett, who was also a little skeptical about planning for density. Continue reading →

Telecommuting Wins over Returning to Offices

By | | Transportation
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The most credible estimates say that at least 20 percent of workers will continue to work at home on any given day after the pandemic, up from less than 6 percent before the pandemic. The share of remote workers is likely to be much higher in Silicon Valley, where a lot of workers do jobs that don’t require daily office visits and high housing prices give workers extra incentives to want to live elsewhere.

Last June, Apple got some push-back from employees when it announced it wanted them to return to the office at least three days a week. Plans to return to offices were delayed by further COVID waves, but last month employees were still threatening to quit if forced to return to the office three days a week. Continue reading →

Transit Construction Costs Run Wild

By | | Transportation
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America’s transit industry has been heavily criticized for spending so much on construction. Yet the industry continues to roll up cost overrun after cost overrun for projects that should have been too expensive to build in the first place.

VTA’s planned single-bore tunnel into downtown San Jose. Figure by VTA.

Take, for example, the BART line to San Jose, which is being planned and built by the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA), which has never displayed much competence in the past. Rather than cut and cover two small tunnels into downtown San Jose, which is the usual practice, VTA wants to bore one gigantic tunnel three to four stories underground. The 6-mile line was originally projected to cost $4.1 billion, but last October the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) announced that it expected the cost to be $9.1 billion, or $1.5 billion a mile, and the agency expressed doubts that VTA had the funds to cover this cost overrun. Continue reading →