Search Results for: peak transit

Amtrak Reaches 87% of 2019 Passenger-Miles

By | | Transportation
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Amtrak carried almost 87 percent as many passenger-miles in October 2022 as it did in October 2019, according to the monthly performance report released by the state-owned company yesterday. This is a significant increase from the 80.5 percent recorded in September.

This is an update of a chart posted last week. I’ll provide another update when October driving data are available.

This is still short of the 94.5 percent carried by domestic and international airlines. Domestic air travel alone is even higher, but unfortunately those data are somewhat behind — the latest is for September, when domestic air travel was several percent higher than the average of domestic and international travel. Continue reading →

July Driving Falls to 97% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 97 percent as many miles in July 2022 as they had in July 2019, the year before the pandemic, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. This is only the fourth month out of the last fourteen in which driving was less than 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

See this post for sources of data for Amtrak, air travel, and transit.

The dip in driving in April was explainable by the spike in fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine. Prices actually peaked in mid-June and have declined almost every day since, so it isn’t clear why driving declined a bit in July. Continue reading →

The World Turned Upside Down

By | | Mission
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Today marks 50 years of my work in public policy analysis. I began in June 1972 as an intern for the Oregon Student Public Interest Research Group. By July, I had written a lengthy paper on how Portland should make transportation improvements to reduce air pollution. Since then, I’ve written somewhere around 200 more papers, several books, and numerous op-eds and articles on topics ranging from endangered species to high-speed rail in geographic areas ranging from Georgia to Tasmania.

I started writing the Antiplanner in January, 2007, and have since written more than 3,700 posts, including 150 policy briefs. That’s enough; it’s time for me to retire. This is difficult because I feel I still have some unfinished business.

The first half of my career was helping environmentalists protect natural resources from corporations that wanted government subsidies to do harm to the environment. After two decades, I left the environmental movement when they began supporting government subsidies to corporations to do harm to the environment. Continue reading →

Honolulu Rail: $9.9 Billion to Go Nowhere

By | | Transportation
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The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) now says it will cost $9.9 billion to not finish its rail project by 2031. As recently as a year ago, HART insisted it would be able to complete the project by 2031, a mere 12 years late. But now it admits that it has a $1.4 billion funding shortfall that will prevent completion.

The rail line was supposed to go from Kapolei, a community of 21,000 people known as Oahu’s “second city,” to Ala Moana Center, Hawaii’s largest shopping mall. Even now, HART’s website claims it is essential for the rail line to go to Ala Moana “because of the Ala Moana Transit Center, which is the City’s largest bus transit center.” Rail passengers would be able to transfer there to buses that could take them to Waikiki, the University of Hawaii, and other destinations. Continue reading →

Old Technologies for New Starts

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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As part of the president’s proposed 2023 budget, the Federal Transit Administration plans to give out an unprecedented $4.45 billion on new transit capital projects, sometimes called New Starts and Small Starts. For comparison, in 2022 it gave away less than $2.5 billion. The difference, of course, is due to passage of the infrastructure law, which massively increased federal subsidies to transit.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

This increase in spending and the projects that the FTA proposes to fund demonstrate that neither the transit industry nor the legislators funding it are responding to changes resulting from the recent pandemic. Transit was already declining before the pandemic, and the pandemic led to a much larger decline, much of which is likely to be permanent. Transit’s response to the decentralization of downtowns and cities should be to rely on smaller vehicles. Yet the New Starts proposals all presume that downtown job numbers and transit ridership will rapidly grow and thus more spending and larger vehicles are needed to accommodate that growth. Continue reading →

Airlines: Our #2 Source of Mobility

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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Airlines carried Americans 77 percent as many miles of domestic travel in 2021 as they did in 2019, according to data recently released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. International air travel was still far short of pre-pandemic levels, being just 29 percent of 2019 numbers. The 578 billion miles of domestic air travel was about the same as in 2013, while the 1,743 miles per capita was slightly more than in 2003.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

U.S. airlines are, or should be, the envy of the world. They carry Americans far more miles per capita than airlines (or, for that matter, railroads) of almost any other country. Airport infrastructure is in excellent condition: as of 2020, 85 percent of commercial airport runways were in good condition, 13 percent in fair condition, and only 1 percent in poor condition. U.S. airlines’ safety record is second to none, experiencing just 14 fatalities while carrying more than 7 trillion passenger-miles since 2010. And airlines do all this at a profit: while some companies have lost money in some years, the domestic airline industry as a whole earned a profit in every year since 2010. Continue reading →

RTD Still Planning Longmont Boondoggle

By | | Transportation
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Denver’s Regional Transportation District (RTD) has hired HDR to “study the feasibility of implementing a ‘peak service’ rail schedule between Denver Union Station and downtown Longmont.” HDR has never seen a rail project it didn’t think was feasible. Among other things, it lied to Atlanta, Cincinnati, Salt Lake City and several other cities about the economic development benefits of streetcars in order to get them to hire it to help build new streetcar lines.

The green line is the existing bus-rapid transit line while the circuitous orange line is the proposed rail route to Longmont. The thick grey lines are other rail transit routes that are nearly all in service today. If Longmont were really a worthwhile destination, the logical thing for RTD to do is extend the bus-rapid transit line to Longmont. But Longmont officials were promised a train and they demand to have a train.

Now RTD wants it to study a commuter-rail line to Longmont, a city northwest of Denver. In 2004, RTD persuaded voters to approve FasTracks, a plan to build six new rail transit lines. One of those lines was to Longmont and RTD convinced Longmont officials to support the 2004 ballot measure by promising them a train. Continue reading →

Truckers, Congestion, and Class Conflict

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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“During the pandemic lockdowns, the email jobs caste [meaning remote workers] loved to talk about essential workers,” observes Marxist writer Malcom Kyeyune, but they now regard those workers with “outright hatred.” His fellow leftists claim to speak for the working class, charges Kyeyune, but in fact the leftist movement and the working-class movement have “divorced.”

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Kyeyune was writing about the Canadian truckers who object to mandatory vaccinations, but he also mentioned European truckers who protested high fuel taxes a few years ago. In the United States, middle-class progressives have come to depend on truckers to deliver all the stuff they order from Amazon but do everything they can to make the daily lives of those truckers miserable. Continue reading →

Pittsburgh Bridge Collapse

By | | Transportation
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Just when the infrastructure issue seemed to be settled for awhile, the failure of the 52-year-old Fern Hollow bridge in Pittsburgh has reawakened it, especially as the collapse took place just a few hours before President Biden was scheduled to speak in Pittsburgh. “I hope it’s a wake-up call to the nation that we need to make these infrastructure investments,” Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman told local reporters.

Photo from the Pittsburgh Department of Public Safety. Click image for a larger view.

No one yet knows why the bridge collapsed, but numerous media reports say that it was rated to be in poor condition. Inspection reports reveal, however, that the part of the bridge in poor condition was its superstructure while its substructure was considered “satisfactory.” Bad substructure may cause a bridge to collapse, but not, generally, bad superstructure. A 2017 inspection concluded that the bridge “meets minimum tolerable limits to be left in place as is.” As a result, the bridge wasn’t scheduled to be repaired or replaced under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Continue reading →

Driving Reaches 102.7% of 2019 Levels

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 2.7 percent more miles in November 2021 than in November 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration this week. Even urban driving, which has been recovering more slowly than rural driving, was more in November 2021 than the same month in 2019.

Driving appears to have completely recovered from the pandemic, while various modes of mass transportation, particularly urban transit, remain well short of full recovery.

November driving was greater than in 2019 in 36 states. The greatest increases were in South Dakota (30.6%), Arizona (22.5%), Missouri (17.4%), and Kentucky (15.7%). The greatest shortfalls were in West Virginia (-24.6%), California (-14.3%), New Jersey (-9.1%), Massachusetts (-6.7%), and Minnesota (-6.8%). Although New Jersey driving declined, New York driving grew by 1.5 percent. Except for West Virginia, none of these numbers are too surprising. Continue reading →