32. The Battle of Oak Grove

“People Come and Go. I Plan for the Land.”

Our initial efforts to save Oak Grove from densification were pretty naïve. First, we thought we could persuade the Clackamas County planners that densification was a bad idea. We invited the lead planner to walk the neighborhood with some of us, a walk that ended with a visit in Jeanne Johnson’s home.

Johnson, a schoolteacher, lived with her husband in a beautiful, 1908 craftsman-style home. After walking around the area on a sunny spring day, the planner exclaimed to Johnson, “What a lovely neighborhood. The only other time I’ve ever walked around here was last fall. It was raining, the edges of the streets were muddy, and I couldn’t figure out why anyone would want to live here.” She was from the government and she was here to help us Neotraditionalize our neighborhood.

Johnson’s neighbors, some of whom had lived their entire lives in Oak Grove, then tried to explain why they didn’t like the plan. Some feared higher densities would bring back the crime that once infested the area. Others worried about congestion. After listening, the planner–who had spent no more than a few hours in the area–looked at the Johnsons’ 87-year-old river-rock fireplace and replied, “People come and go, but the land remains. I plan for the land.” In other words, our concerns didn’t matter; she knew what was best. Continue reading

No Policy Brief This Week

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be no policy brief this week. A new chapter in The Its positive results and exclusive mechanism soft viagra has ranked it on the top. However, sexual stimulation is viagra sales online necessary prior to taking Kamagra jelly to treat erectile dysfunction. cheap tadalafil The arousal brought up on your part to go out and drive your way to the nearest drugstore. viagra tablets for women Most human beings with sugarare susceptible to kidney failure. Education of an Iconoclast will appear this Friday, and a new policy brief should come out next Tuesday.

Vision Zero Isn’t Working

An article posted on the Atlantic‘s CityLab last week documented that many of the cities that have adopted “vision zero” policies have seen pedestrian fatalities sharply increase. These cities, notes the article, have “spent hundreds of millions of dollars in the process, rebuilding streets to calm traffic and reduce driving, lobbying for speed limit reductions, launching public awareness campaigns, and retraining police departments.” Yet Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, among others, saw sharp increases in pedestrian and/or bicycle fatalities after adopting Vision Zero policies.

This won’t be a surprise to Antiplanner readers. As described in Policy Brief #25, Vision Zero is an overly simplistic strategy that fails to solve the real problems that are causing pedestrian fatalities to rise.

Vision Zero is based on the observation that pedestrians hit by cars traveling at high speeds are more likely to die than if the cars are traveling at low speeds. So Vision Zero’s primary tactic is to reduce driving speeds. Vision Zero’s secondary goal is to reduce driving period by making auto travel slower and less desirable compared to the alternatives. Neither of these are working very well. Continue reading

31. The Oak Grove Plan

In 1989, when Vickie and I decided to move from Eugene to Portland so I could work on the SP&S 700, home prices in Portland were starting to rise following the recession of the 1980s. We soon realized that we couldn’t afford a home in Portland, but we did find a nice house in a Portland suburb called Oak Grove. Having grown up in Portland, I was aware that Oak Grove was located a few miles south of the city on the east side of the Willamette River, but I didn’t know much about it.

I soon learned that Oak Grove is an unincorporated area that had exclusively been farmland until 1892, when the world’s first electric interurban railroad connected the 20-mile distance between Portland and Oregon City, Oregon’s oldest incorporated city. Wealthy Portlanders soon realized that they could “get away from it all” by building homes along the rail line and commuting.

By 1930, parts of Oak Grove nearest the trolley line had been subdivided into standard 50×100 lots centered around a small retail area. But much of the community was a “railroad suburb,” with large houses on parcels of an acre or more, interspersed with farms and dairies. Over succeeding generations, the large parcels and farms were broken up and sold off. Today, the community has a wide variety of lot sizes and home styles. Continue reading

Does Transit Capital Spending Boost Ridership?

Does spending a lot of money on transit improvements boost transit ridership? Since 1992, Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston have each spent about ten times as much money on transit improvements as San Antonio and Austin. Transit systems in all four urban areas carry fewer riders today than they did in 2000. While Houston ridership has grown since 2012, it is because of a low-cost restructuring of its bus system, not because of transit capital improvements (e.g., new light-rail lines).

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

To find out whether it is generally true that spending more on transit can generate more riders, I gathered data for more than 100 of the nation’s largest urban areas. The not-so-surprising result is that spending more on transit improvements doesn’t do much to increase ridership. Moreover, the data indicate that urban areas that spend a lot on transit capital improvements don’t grow faster and may grow considerably slower than areas that don’t. Finally, the numbers show that increasing urban densities may have once had an effect on transit ridership, but doesn’t seem to anymore. Continue reading

Amtrak Report Refutes Press Release

A couple of weeks ago, I noted that, if Amtrak were a publicly traded company, it would have been guilty of securities fraud for misrepresenting its 2019 financial results in a press release before those results were officially published. Now Amtrak has published an unaudited edition of its 2019 returns and it verifies everything I said.

The document is the company’s monthly performance report for September, 2019, which also reports on year-to-date results. Since September 30 is the end of Amtrak’s fiscal year, this is in effect a preliminary annual report.

Page 3 of the report notes that Amtrak collected $2,288.5 million in ticket revenues, $143.9 million in food and beverage revenues, and $234.2 million in subsidies from the states. All of these are counted as “passenger related revenue.” Of course, subsidies from the states are not really passenger revenues, but they were portrayed that way in the press release. Continue reading

30. Interlude, Part II: Rail Historian

Membership in PRPA inspired me to go to a rail restoration conference at the California Railroad Museum and to become active with rail history groups all over the country. One person I met, Benn Coifman, was a student in transportation engineering at UC Berkeley. On the side, he had designed a variety of railroad fonts, including both lettersets such as the unique font used by the Great Northern’s streamlined Empire Builder as well as graphics of such objects as locomotives and railcars. He soon added an SP&S 700 to one of his graphic fonts.

I even inquired about getting a master’s degree in the history of technology at a major university, thinking I could become a museum curator of some type. After visiting the school, however, I decided I was no longer willing to put up with all the red tape involved with being a student that I had accepted as a necessity two decades before.

After the 700’s triumphant return from the Washington Central, the Sacramento Railroad Museum invited PRPA to join them for a railfair they were planning for 1991. One way to help pay for such a trip would be to sell space on passenger cars. The 4449 had a fleet of ex-Southern Pacific cars that it used for such trips. Except for our crew car, we didn’t have any passenger cars, but the Pacific Northwest Chapter of the National Railroad Historical Society did, so we met with them to plan the trip. Continue reading

Strike a Blow Against Capitalism Socialism

Here’s someone’s idea of a brilliant plan: get all your friends to fight the evil capitalistic system by refusing to pay for one of the most socialistic services in this country: public transit. On November 29 (the day after Thanksgiving), people are supposed to protest “the rich getting richer” by jumping turnstiles or otherwise refusing to pay for their transit rides.

Under the name “No Fare Is Fair,” people in Portland are refusing to pay and demanding free public transit, which supposedly represents social, economic, and climate justice. Similar groups are promoting fare strikes in Seattle, San Francisco, New York City, and no doubt elsewhere. Continue reading

Reducing Mobility to Boost Transit

Reeling from five years of ridership declines, the transit industry is stumbling around looking for a new mission, or at least new strategies to restore some of its revenues. New research and on-the-ground experience suggests the task will be difficult and may be hopeless.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The opening pages of the American Public Transportation Association’s (APTA) recently released 2019 Transit Fact Book present a cheery picture of transit’s success by comparing 2018 transit numbers with numbers from the 1990s, which saw historic lows in transit ridership. Yes, ridership grew from 1995 to 2014, but bus ridership peaked in 2008 and rail in 2014 and both have been declining since then, a reality APTA hopes people will overlook. This is typical of the kind of cherry-picking of data that transit advocates so often use to promote their agendas. Continue reading

29. Interlude: The SP&S 700

The year 1995 represented a significant transition in my career. Before 1995, nearly all of my work was studying forest planning and forest policy for environmental groups. After 1995, nearly all of my work was studying urban growth and transportation planning and policy for free-market groups. Before describing that transition, it is worth taking an interlude to look at what was almost my third career: railroad history.

I’ve loved passenger trains ever since my first ride on one, from Grand Forks, North Dakota to Portland, when I was five years old. I grew up with Diesel-powered streamlined trains, and can’t remember ever seeing a steam locomotive in operation except in places like the Portland Zoo and Disneyland. Compared to a real, full-sized steam locomotive, these were toys, so I ignored them and maintained a fondness for streamliners.

One such streamliner was the Rio Grande Zephyr, a remnant of the Chicago-Oakland California Zephyr. The Rio Grande Railroad had elected to not join Amtrak in 1971 and so continued to run its Zephyr between Denver and Salt Lake City over what is probably the most scenic rail route in America. By 1983, however, Amtrak talked the Rio Grande into letting it run Amtrak trains on its route rather than the far-less scenic route it had been using. Vickie and I were on the last run of the Rio Grande Zephyr, and I wrote about it in Passenger Train Journal. After returning from that trip, I became much more interested in rail history. Continue reading