Stupid Responses to Collapsed Ridership

San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies are “struggling” as a result of the coronavirus, says one reporter. “Flailing about” would be a more accurate term. As noted yesterday, Bay Area transit agencies carried 86 percent fewer riders in May 2020 than May 2019. They basically have no idea how to cope with this other than to demand more subsidies from taxpayers and concessions from cities.

CalTrain, which offers commuter trains from San Francisco to San Jose, says it is carrying twice as many riders per day as at the low point of the pandemic. That means weekday ridership is up from 1,500 to 3,000. That’s still less than 5 percent of the usual number, which in 2018 was 64,000.

AC Transit, which serves Alameda and Contra Costa counties, warns that it may have to cut dozens of bus routes and reduce service on many more. But that’s an appropriate response when no one is riding transit.

People fleeing dense cities and substituting driving or working at home for transit hasn’t stopped BART and San Jose’s Valley Transportation Authority from continuing to subsidize high-density transit-oriented developments along their routes. Private developers are no doubt being cautious about spending their own money on new projects whose viability is rendered questionable by the pandemic, but BART and VTA don’t care because they’re spending someone else’s money.

San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (Muni) is creating bus-only lanes on streets. It’s not clear how that’s supposed to help when the buses are empty. The lanes are supposed to be “temporary,” but I wouldn’t be surprised if they stay bus-only after the pandemic is over.

According to Federal Highway Administration data released yesterday, driving on urban roads in California was down 26 percent in May. Considering how congested California urban areas were before the pandemic, a 26 percent decline means the roads are still pretty crowded much of the day. With transit ridership down 86 percent, it makes more sense to open up transit routes to cars rather than the other way around.

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Another idea from transit advocacy groups is mergers. Based on the assumption that bigger bureaucracies are more efficient than smaller ones, they are advocating that all Bay Area transit agencies — of which there are at least a dozen — be merged into one. Of course, it is more likely that smaller bureaucracies are more efficient, but even if bigger were better, such mergers would be little more than rearranging deck chairs since they won’t address the question of a lack of riders.

The New York Times warns that cities could “grind to a halt” unless the federal government provides more subsidies to transit. Excuse me? “Cities” is plural. Other than New York, what cities are you talking about?

Yes, New York City depends on transit, but that’s not true of any other city in the country. San Francisco seems to be doing just fine with almost no one riding transit.

In fact, except for the transit agencies themselves, it’s probably hard to find anyone in the Bay Area seriously being hurt by cuts in transit service. In 2018, the median income transit commuters in the city of San Francisco was $71,500 a year, compared with the national median income of $38,000. The median income for transit commuters in the entire Bay Area was $68,600. In other words, they can afford to own a car.

The coronavirus has revealed to everyone that public transit is a failed transportation system. Instead of figuring out ways transit agencies can get more dollars from taxpayers or make it more difficult for people to drive, people who truly care about urban areas should figure out how transit can phase itself out.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

One Response to Stupid Responses to Collapsed Ridership

  1. LazyReader says:

    I said it a while ago, Minibuses. Because they rely on Automobile tech and engineering instead of heavy duty diesel buses; they’re more adept for navigating city streets and easier for mechanics to fix. And micro buses run on gas which is cleaner than diesel, not to mention cheaper. Carry passengers more efficiently (Because average transit buses are filled only to 1/6 average)

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