October Transit Ridership Down 1.6%

The nation’s transit industry carried 1.6 percent fewer riders in October 2019 than it did in the same month in 2018, according to the latest monthly data release from the Federal Transit Administration. Ridership fell for light rail, hybrid rail, and most kinds of buses, but grew for commuter rail and heavy rail. October had the same number of work days in 2018 and 2019, so the decline in ridership can’t be blamed on a difference in work days.

Ridership declined in 31 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas. The numbers show an increase for Dallas-Ft. Worth, but that’s due to a change in the method of counting bus riders in Dallas, so in reality ridership probably declined in 32 of the nation’s 50 largest regions.

In terms of percent, the biggest drops were in New Orleans (-17.1%), Louisville (-12.6%), Phoenix (-11.8%), Boston (-10.3%), and Virginia Beach-Norfolk (-9.9%). In actual numbers, the biggest declines were in Boston (-3.6 million riders), Chicago (-2.8 million or -5.2%), Los Angeles (-2.3 million or -4.7%), Philadelphia (-1.4 million or -4.3%), and Atlanta (-1.0 million or -7.9%). Phoenix, San Francisco Oakland, Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Juan, and Cleveland all lost more than 200,000 riders. Continue reading

Transit Ridership Up in September

America’s transit systems carried 2.9 percent more riders in September 2019 than September 2018, according to data released by the Federal Transit Administration yesterday. After deducting New York, ridership still grew by half a percent. Moreover, ridership grew in 27 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, though one of those was Dallas-Ft. Worth, where the apparent ridership growth is really just due to a change in the method of counting bus riders.

September 2019 had one more work day than September 2018, which accounts for some of the increase. A recovery from some of the maintenance delays experienced in New York and Washington explains some of the rest of it. Every major mode of transit saw an increase in riders except light rail, which experienced a 5.4 percent decline.

Year-to-date ridership is not so positive, as it fell by 0.1 percent nationwide, 1.4 percent outside of New York, 4.0 percent for light rail, and 0.8 percent for buses. Continue reading

August Ridership Drops in 40 of Top 50 Regions

August 2019 transit ridership in the New York urban area grew a massive 5.1 percent above the same month in 2018, according to National Transit data released last Thursday by the Federal Transit Administration. That was enough to push nationwide transit ridership up, but only by 0.3 percent. Not counting New York, transit ridership fell by 3.2 percent.

August ridership fell in Phoenix by 16.2 percent, which may have been due to the weather: temperatures rose about 105 degrees for 21 days in August 2019, vs. just nine days in August 2018. Ridership also fell by 16.6 percent in Louisville, 14.1 percent in New Orleans, and 11.2 percent in Virginia Beach-Norfolk.

While these were the extremes, few major urban areas were exempt from the decline. Ridership dropped in Seattle (-2.6%) and Houston (-1.1%), both regions that had been once claimed to be exempt from the malaise that is affecting the nation’s transit industry. Ridership grew in only 10 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, and one of those — Dallas-Ft. Worth — is suspect as nearly all of the growth is in Dallas buses, which installed a new way of counting riders last fall that reports much higher numbers than before. Continue reading

July Transit Ridership Up 1.9 Percent

Transit ridership in July 2019 was 1.9 percent greater than the same month in 2018, according to data released by the Federal Transit Administration last Friday. The increase was partly due to the fact that July had one more work day in 2019 than in 2018.

In addition, the New York City subway had partly recovered from serious delays and other problems experienced in July 2018, which led to a 5.5 percent increase in New York urban area ridership. Subtract New York and ridership in the rest of the country declined by 1.0 percent. The difference between New York and the rest of the country was underscored by modal numbers: July ridership fell for commuter rail, light rail, hybrid rail, and streetcars, but grew for heavy rail and bus.

Ridership grew in exactly half of the top 50 urban areas. However, ridership for January through July 2019 grew over the same months in 2018 in just 15 of the top 50 urban areas. Continue reading

NY Subways Up in May; Transit Elsewhere Down

New York City subway ridership in May 2019 was 2.1 percent greater than in May 2018, according to the May update to the National Transit Database. That was enough to lift national transit ridership in May to be 0.3 percent above the previous May. Without New York subways, ridership nationally fell by 0.4 percent.

New York subway ridership is still down 0.7 percent for the year to date, and nationally ridership is down 1.0 percent. Of the nation’s fifty largest urban areas, May ridership grew for 20 and declined for 30, while year-to-date ridership grew in 15 and declined in 35. May 2018 and May 2019 both had the same number of workdays, so a difference in workdays had no effect on transit ridership.
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As usual, the Antiplanner has posted an enhanced spreadsheet with annual totals in columns HK through IB, totals for major modes in rows 2146 through 2153, total for transit agencies in rows 2160 through 3159, and totals for 200 urban areas in rows 3170 through 3371. Due to the holiday weekend, I won’t be posting a policy brief tomorrow, but the next episode of The Education of an Iconoclast will still appear on Friday.

Americans on the Move

Maricopa County (Phoenix) was the nation’s fastest-growing county in 2018, gaining more than 81,000 new residents from 2017, according to population estimates just released by the Census Bureau. A distant second was Clark County (Las Vegas), at 48,000 new residents; followed by Harris County (Houston), 34,000; Riverside County (California), 33,500; and King County (Seattle), 29,000. Since 2010, Maricopa gained 593,000 residents and was just edged for the number one spot by Harris County, which grew by 605,000.

Just as significant are the counties that lost population, led by Cook County (Chicago), which lost 24,000 people. Three New York City boroughs are in the bottom five: Queens (-18,000), Brooklyn (-13,500), and the Bronx (-7,500). Los Angeles County is also in the bottom five, having lost 13,000. Baltimore, Honolulu, St. Louis, Cuyahoga (Cleveland), and Sonoma Counties are also big losers, the latter due to wildfire issues.

As a result of these county changes, the nation’s three largest metropolitan areas all lost population: New York (-25,000), Chicago (-22,000), and Los Angeles (-7,000). The declines in the central counties of these regions were partly offset by gains in suburban counties. The metro areas with the biggest gains were Dallas-Ft. Worth (132,000), Phoenix (96,000), Houston (92,000), Atlanta (76,000), Orlando (60,000), and Seattle (55,000). Continue reading

Transit Ridership Falls Again in February

America’s transit systems carried 4.7 percent fewer riders in February 2019 than the same month in 2018, according to data released last Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. All major forms of transit saw declines except hybrid rail, which grew because of a new San Francisco Bay Area line that opened in mid-2018. Overall, rail and bus each declined by 4.7 percent.

Ridership dropped in 39 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas. The biggest declines were in Providence (-15.9%), Milwaukee (-14.3%), Louisville (-13.0%), Detroit (-11.1%), Kansas City (-11.0%), Phoenix (-10.8%), and Philadelphia (-10.2%). Ridership even declined in Seattle (-5.8%), which had been enjoying a sustained period of growth.

The biggest ridership growth was in Richmond (12.6%), testimony in favor of that transit system’s redesign with the help of Jarrett Walker. Ridership also grew significantly in Dallas-Ft. Worth (12.2%), Denver (5.3%), Austin (5.2%), Buffalo (4.5%), Atlanta (2.8%), and Salt Lake (2.3%). Ridership also grew by less than a percent in Houston, Washington, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and San Juan. Continue reading

Driving Is Growing But Growth Is Slowing

Late last month, the Federal Highway Administration reported that Americans drove a record number of miles in 2018: 3.225 trillion miles in all. While the Department of Transportation heralded this as a sign of a “robust economy,” detailed data show that driving grew by only 0.38 percent over 2017. This is slower than the previous year’s growth of 1.21 percent, and slower than the nation’s population growth of 0.62 percent, which means per capita driving declined by 0.24 percent.

While any growth at all is better than the transit industry is doing, this slow growth may be more of a sign of an on-coming recession than a robust economy. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal incomes declined by 0.1 percent in January, 2019, though they grew by 0.2 percent in February. Bloomberg says that some indicators suggest that we are facing the highest chance of a recession since 2008.

Of course, some people are using the growth in driving as one more argument for a big infrastructure spending bill. In fact, the need for a new federal spending program is becoming more questionable every day. Continue reading

Transit’s Declining Importance

The steady decline in transit ridership, combined with the growth of driving, is revealed in passenger-mile data published by the Department of Transportation. The table below shows changes in transit’s share of motorized travel for the nation’s 25 largest urban areas. Outside of these areas, transit’s share declined by more than 10 percent in Sacramento, San Jose, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Charlotte, among many others.

Urbanized Area20162017Change
New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT11.6%11.5%-1.0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA1.9%1.8%-4.7%
Chicago, IL-IN3.6%3.4%-5.5%
Miami, FL1.1%1.1%-2.5%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD2.8%2.4%-11.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX0.6%0.5%-4.9%
Houston, TX0.7%0.7%-2.0%
Washington, DC-VA-MD3.5%3.2%-9.3%
Atlanta, GA0.9%0.9%-6.7%
Boston, MA-NH-RI2.9%2.7%-6.5%
Detroit, MI0.4%0.4%-0.7%
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ0.6%0.7%14.3%
San Francisco-Oakland, CA7.1%6.6%-7.0%
Seattle, WA3.4%3.4%1.2%
San Diego, CA1.4%1.3%-7.1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI1.1%1.1%-1.7%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL0.4%0.3%-12.9%
Denver-Aurora, CO1.7%1.6%-1.4%
Baltimore, MD2.3%2.3%-2.0%
St. Louis, MO-IL0.7%0.6%-10.3%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA0.5%0.4%-8.2%
Las Vegas-Henderson, NV1.0%0.9%-3.0%
Portland, OR-WA2.3%2.3%-0.1%
Cleveland, OH0.8%0.7%-11.7%
San Antonio, TX0.7%0.6%-3.7%

Continue reading

Cars Getting More Energy-Efficient

The average car on the road used 2,939 British thermal units (BTUs) per passenger mile in 2016, according to the recently released Transportation Energy Data Book. This is the first time since the Department of Energy began keeping track that BTUs per passenger mile for cars has fallen below 3,000. It compares with 4,102 BTUs per passenger mile for transit buses.

Click image to download a 14-MB PDF of this book. Click here to download all or individual tables in the form of Excel spreadsheets.

Actually, according to the latest data book, BTUs per passenger mile fell to 2,998 in 2015. But the previous edition of the data book had reported 3,034; the latest edition revised the number slightly downward. Continue reading