August Ridership Drops in 40 of Top 50 Regions

August 2019 transit ridership in the New York urban area grew a massive 5.1 percent above the same month in 2018, according to National Transit data released last Thursday by the Federal Transit Administration. That was enough to push nationwide transit ridership up, but only by 0.3 percent. Not counting New York, transit ridership fell by 3.2 percent.

August ridership fell in Phoenix by 16.2 percent, which may have been due to the weather: temperatures rose about 105 degrees for 21 days in August 2019, vs. just nine days in August 2018. Ridership also fell by 16.6 percent in Louisville, 14.1 percent in New Orleans, and 11.2 percent in Virginia Beach-Norfolk.

While these were the extremes, few major urban areas were exempt from the decline. Ridership dropped in Seattle (-2.6%) and Houston (-1.1%), both regions that had been once claimed to be exempt from the malaise that is affecting the nation’s transit industry. Ridership grew in only 10 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, and one of those — Dallas-Ft. Worth — is suspect as nearly all of the growth is in Dallas buses, which installed a new way of counting riders last fall that reports much higher numbers than before.

Ridership did grow in Washington by 1.6 percent, probably because of increased rail reliability. It grew in Richmond by 11.7 percent, probably due to a restructuring of the bus system with the help of Jarrett Walker. Walker also helped Houston redo its bus system, which led to ridership boosts for a few years, but now it is falling again. This doesn’t mean such restructuring isn’t worthwhile, but it isn’t going to save the transit industry in the long run.

August 2019 had one more Saturday and one fewer weekday than August 2018. Considering that Saturday transit ridership is about 54 percent of weekday ridership, that means that — in the absence of population growth — we would expect August 2019 ridership to be 1.7 percent less than in 2018. America’s urban population has been growing by 0.7 percent per year, so the “expected” decline should be 1.0 percent. In most urban areas, it was much more than that.

Transit service declined in 35 out of the top 50 urban areas. Even where service grew, that growth was only dimly reflected in ridership. Service grew but ridership grew by a smaller amount in Washington (7.0% vs. 1.6%), Denver (8.1% vs. 3.5%), Las Vegas (2.0% vs. 1.1%), and Raleigh (19.5% vs. 6.0%). Service grew yet ridership declined in Houston (1.1% vs. -1.1%), Seattle (0.7% vs. -2.6%), the Twin Cities (0.5% vs. -1.2%), Tampa (1.4% vs. -0.4%), Portland (0.8% vs. -2.4%), and Orlando (2.2% vs. -6.6%). One exception is Austin, which saw a 5.1 percent ridership gain from a 3.0 percent service boost.
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Both service and ridership fell, however, in 31 of the top 50 urban areas, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Phoenix, San Francisco-Oakland, Baltimore, and St. Louis. Cleveland (-4.1% service & -9.2% ridership), Sacramento (-6.9% & -0.3%), San Jose (-3.3% & -2.2%), Cincinnati (-11.4% & -7.5%), and Indianapolis (-4.9% & -4.3%) are among those that already appear locked in a downward spiral.

A recent article about Green Mountain Transit — Burlington, Vermont’s transit system — indicated that a 13 percent decline in ridership since 2013 has forced the agency to dip into its cash reserves. Those reserves have declined from $2.0 million to $0.7 million in the past four years, which suggests it will soon have to make severe reductions in service. It has already cancelled the purchase of three new buses, cut its marketing budget, and hiked fares from $1.25 to $1.50 (but cut monthly passes by 20 percent). Complicating matters, Green Mountain Transit’s board recently forced its CEO to retire for reasons that haven’t been revealed.

“Plummeting” seems to be one of the most commonly used words in recent news headlines on transit ridership. Bus ridership is plummeting in Honolulu, calling the island’s expensive rail project into further question. Rail ridership is plummeting in Denver, which officials can’t explain. Ridership is plummeting in the Twin Cities, St. Louis, Ft. Lauderdale, and many other cities.

Of course, Los Angeles practically invented plummeting transit ridership, as bus ridership there fell 17 percent between 1985 and 1995 due to service cuts, then recovered under a court order requiring restoration of service, then plummeted again when the court order expired in 2006. As previously noted here, L.A. Metro’s CEO, Phillip Washington, thinks the solution is to “make driving harder” by converting general street lanes into exclusive bus lanes. This would help change people’s behavior. As every Progressive believes, “sometimes you have to tell people what’s good for them.” I’m sure Los Angeles drivers can’t wait for the government to make the region’s notorious congestion even worse for the “greater good.”

As usual, I’ve posted an enhanced spreadsheet that includes annual ridership (unlinked passenger trips or UPT) and service (in vehicle revenue miles or VRM)) totals from 2002 to 2019 in columns HN through IE, the percentage change in August ridership in IF, the percentage change in January through August ridership in IG, totals for major modes in rows 2162 through 2173, totals by transit agency in rows 2180 through 3179, and totals for the 200 largest urban areas in rows 3190 through 3390.