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Category Archives: Transportation

Amtrak Carries 87% of Pre-Pandemic Pass-Miles

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Amtrak carried 87.0 percent as many passenger-miles in January 2023 as in January 2019, according to the state-owned company’s monthly performance report released earlier this week. That’s up from December’s 80 percent but down from November’s 91 percent.

Amtrak ridership seems to be bouncing around between 80 and 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Amtrak’s January ticket revenues were only 83 percent of January 2019, but its basic operating expenses were 122 percent of 2019’s. As a result, its net losses were 52 percent greater in January 2023 than the same month in 2019. Continue reading →

BART Is in Self-Destruct Mode

By | | Transportation
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The San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit Authority (BART) spends a lot of money, and anytime a government agency has a lot of money to spend, there is a potential for corruption. For example, a month ago it was revealed that BART spent $350,000 to help one homeless person.

These $2 million cars were recently delivered to BART along with three times the service delays as the 40-year-old cars they replaced, which is a problem that should have been examined by the inspector general.

That revelation came from the BART Inspector General’s office, which was created in 2018 (about 50 years too late) to monitor BART spending. But BART itself hasn’t been too thrilled about having someone look over its shoulder. Continue reading →

Transit Ridership Falls in January

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Transit carried 66.4 percent as many riders in January 2023 as January 2019, according to data released by the Federal Transit Administration earlier this week. Though this is a slight improvement from the 66.0 percent of December 2022, the total number of January riders was lower than December’s. This is unusual: normally, January sees more riders than December. January 2023 had one fewer working day than January 2019, which may have contributed to the decline in ridership from December.

Transit ridership has hovered around 66 percent of pre-pandemic (2019) numbers for the last five months, suggesting it may not grow much further. Early in the pandemic, I predicted that ridership would never recover to more than 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels, which I later revised downwards to 70 percent (a projection supported by McKinsey). That’s looking to be slightly too high. Continue reading →

We Don’t Want Your Stinkin’ Jobs

By | | Transportation
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“Yes, but it creates jobs!” has long been the last refuge for scoundrels promoting expensive boondoggles, so it is no surprise that it is now being used to justify continued spending on the California high-speed rail project. The most recent release from the California High Speed Rail Authority says that they now expect the project to cost up to $128 billion, but that’s okay, because it is putting 10,000 people to work.

That argument might carry some weight if we had a high unemployment rate. But right now, the United States is suffering from a major labor shortage. Each person working on the California rail line is one less person helping to move goods to markets, build homes, and so other essential work. One more strike against high-speed rail: it contributes to the increasing costs of everything. Continue reading →

Phoenix’s Irrational Transportation Plan

By | | Regional planning, Transportation
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The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) wasted billions of dollars of taxpayer money because it failed to follow the most basic rules of planning, says a report released today by the Arizona Free Enterprise Club. The standard “rational planning process,” which is described in just about every introductory planning textbook, calls for planners to identify a full range of alternatives, evaluate those alternatives, pick the best one to accomplish their goals, and monitor the implementation of the plan to ensure that their original assumptions were correct.

Click image to download a 8.9-MB PDF of this 38-page report.

Maricopa regional transportation plans, including plans issued in 2006, 2014, and most recently 2021, fail to do any of these steps. By failing to consider a wide range of alternatives, MAG ended up writing a plan that didn’t make sense for the 21th century. By failing to evaluate alternatives, it ignored low-cost solutions that could do more to accomplish the plan’s goals. By failing to monitor previous plans, it repeated the same mistake over and over in long-range plans written about every five years. Continue reading →

Brightline’s Folly to Vegas

By | | Transportation
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Brightline says it has raised enough money to start construction on a 200-mph rail line from Victorville, California to Las Vegas. The company projects the line will cost $10 billion, or about $45 million a mile for the 218-mile route.

Brightline in Florida. Illustration by All Aboard Florida (Brightline’s original name).

Brightline has $1 billion in private activity bonds to start construction. But I would be surprised if Brightline has managed to find private investors foolish enough to give the company the other $9 billion needed for this line. The company says that it expects to attract 12 million people a year heading to Las Vegas or Los Angeles out of their cars and buses, or almost 30 percent of the 42 million traveling by highway today, but that seems highly unlikely. Continue reading →

2022 Driving Was 97.2% of 2019

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 94.2 percent as many miles in December, 2022 as they did in the same month before the pandemic, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. Total driving for the year was 97.2 percent of 2019.

Both urban and rural driving fell short of pre-pandemic levels in December. Americans drove about 99 percent as many miles in rural areas but only 92 percent as many miles in urban areas as in 2019. Continue reading →

East Side Access Project Opens Today

By | | Transportation
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Today, more than a decade late and after spending $11.2 billion, the Long Island Railroad will begin running trains to Grand Central Terminal. This 3.5-mile project, known as the East Side Access tunnel, cost a mere $3.2 billion a mile, which is a trifle compared with the Second Avenue Subway, the next segment of which is expected to cost $4 billion a mile.

Architect’s vision of what new LIRR platform will look like in Grand Central Terminal. Source: STV Inc.

Meanwhile, New York transit has a $26.6 billion capital funding gap over the next two years. One result of this is that more than a quarter of the region’s transit vehicles are beyond the end of their expected service life. Continue reading →

Next Up: Gas Rationing

By | | Transportation
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Monday’s Antiplanner noted that Oxford England has set a goal of reducing driving by 25 percent and observed that, “No city in the developed world has been able to reduce driving by this much since World War II.” I didn’t want to give anyone any ideas, so I didn’t add that driving fell during World War II due to gas rationing.

A rationing coupon issued to a resident of Lowell, Oregon, who owned a 1934 Plymouth.

Too late: when I wrote that, I wasn’t aware that, just the day before, a journal called Ethics, Policy and the Environment had published an article arguing in favor of gas rationing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The authors claim that this would be a “fairer way to fight climate change.” Continue reading →

The 15-Minute Conspiracy

By | | Transportation
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Oxford, England, wants to be a 15-minute city and towards that end it is creating low-traffic neighborhoods where only certain people will be allowed to drive automobiles. This has generated huge protests by people who claim this is limiting their freedom to travel.

Slate argues that this is all a misunderstanding; 15-minute cities are “not [about] stopping people from traveling more, but making it possible for them to travel less.” But if they are so benign, then why do Antifa thugs need to disguise themselves so they can’t be identified in case they happen to destroy anyone’s property when engaging in a counterprotest? Continue reading →