In November 2020, a report from McKinsey & Co. to the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority predicted that transit ridership would recover to as high as 92 percent of pre-pandemic levels by 2025. Now McKinsey has revised that number downward to as low as 70 percent. Even that is probably optimistic considering that recent data indicate that New York subway ridership has been flat at least since February 2022, and has even declined somewhat since June.
In McKinsey’s study, scenario S1 assumes people will steadily return to working in offices while the much more likely S2 assumes many will continue to work at home at least three days a week. Neither is good news for New York City transit but S2 is particularly bad, especially since even it is probably optimistic.
More than in most cities, transit in New York depends on fare revenues. Before the pandemic, fares covered more than half the operating costs of New York City transit but only about a quarter of the costs elsewhere. A decline in ridership hits the city’s transit budget harder than almost anywhere else, so it’s no surprise that both national and local media are focused on the “fiscal cliff” that MTA is likely to hurdle over when it runs out of federal COVID relief funds, probably in 2024.
As the New York state comptroller noted in a recent publication, this is more than just a question of increased subsidies vs. reduced service. Instead, it is truly an existential issue for transit agencies nationwide.
Although transit agencies all over the country are quietly lobbying for tax increases to fund them despite low ridership, they are getting push back. The governor of Arizona vetoed such a tax increase for Phoenix transit early this month. The Central Ohio Transit Authority had proposed a ballot measure to increase taxes to support Columbus transit, but dropped it from the ballot when it was clear there was no support.
Meanwhile, transit crime is up 53 percent. Due to driver shortages and poor maintenance, transit has become increasingly unreliable. Having shut down the nuclear power plant that once provided much of New York City’s electricity, New York transit will probably be producing far more greenhouse gases per passenger-mile than many private automobiles, which was already true for almost all other transit agencies.
Given these and other factors, why would anyone want to ride transit? About the only answer many transit agencies have to this question is, “Let’s make it free!” Of course, that will require even more subsidies.
Instead of asking, “How do we fund transit when ridership is down by 60 percent from pre-pandemic levels?” voters and politicians need to ask, “Why should we continue to fund transit when ridership is down by 60 percent from pre-pandemic levels?” There is no good answer to this question.
Before 1965 and passage of US mass transit act, transit in USA was either privately managed or locally owned. What municipalization provided was a vast increase in subsidies to transit, and those subsidies sent the wrong signals to management and labor.
Federal transfers for highways and roads were $48 billion dollars in 2019….slightly above the 45-47 billion in fares collected for intended purpose so fare to subsidy ratio is a few percentage points higher.
By contrast transit got 54 billion in subsidies not INCLUDING covid relief….in 2019, was about 54 billion for about 10 billion in revenues….a subsidy to fare ratio of 5 to 1. Highway subsidies dont come about as a result of very entrenched political finagling…transit does. Subsidize highways, you get…highways paved. Inconsequential and itsmuse is derived by users if they choose to use it.
What subsidies did to transit….Management took the signal that sound financial management was no longer relevant to running our capacities…other people will pay no matter what we build, if what we builds falls apart or if a bum shits on its seats.
Numbers create accountability. Accountable people like numbers. Numbers create clarity and commitment. Numbers create results.Politicians and shady folk on the otherhand, love numbers too, that is they enjoy the confusion those who’re not mathematically literate when presented with proposals they believe will benefit from……….And use tricky math and clever accounting to write it off as a win win.
If you’re too poor to afford groceries the government will give you a voucher and basically permit you to spent and utilize however you need or see fit. The government doesn’t build its own chain if grocery stores and stock it with its own brand of groceries. But if you’re too poor to afford a car, government will spend billions to design and build a poorly comprehensive transit most of which is oriented to locations of high tourism volume or job dense regions for people who make 75-100 thousand a year average aka Rich people… the last people on Earth who need subsidies for transportation.
“… when it runs out of federal COVID relief funds….”
We should all admit that’s not going to happen. Federal funds never run out. The program names and purported objectives will change (remember the “good paying union jobs” act) but neither party has an appetite for ending the flow of federal funds, even for worthless endeavors like transit.
Even federal funds have their limits. The baby boomers will soon all be retired. That’s going to put huge monetary constraints on the system, even taking into account it’s ability to print money.
Funny how poorly this post from the Antiplanner in 2011 misjudged the future:
https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=5321
describing how Spain’s high speed rail plans were a white elephant that no one would ride, when in actuality there were 22 million trips in 2019, out of nation of 47 million people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AVE#Passenger_usage
22 out of 47… less than half…and is there any indication these are one way. You take train trip you take ANOTHER trip to go home. And soains hsr lines converge on center of madrid….. and do have to take a SECOND Trip to a east,west destinations.
Flights I the US by contrast largely abandoned hundreds, spoke models for direct flights.
HSR is ok for Europe because countries are small…..
“there were 22 million trips in 2019, out of nation of 47 million people
” ~janehavisham
Look Jane, get your shit together before you mock other people. Compariing # of trips to country population makes no sense.
What would:
a) total kilometers travelled by mode
b) total trips by mode
c) cost per kilometer by mode
“HSR is ok for Europe because countries are small…..”
Yeah, Spain’s pretty small; only as big as California.
kx1781, if you want to be like the Antiplanner, you never look at trips, only miles traveled. That’s the sole measure of his idea of freedom and happiness: how many miles you traveled. If you drive 20 miles to get a gallon of milk, that means you’re twice as free and happy as someone who drives 10 miles, and 40 times freer and happier than someone who bicycles 1/2 a mile to get it.
Reductio ad absurdum.
No one….. anywhere uses High speed rail to buy milk
Spain is 10% larger than California. And has 10 million more people…. if you’re gonna spout s***…wipe your mouth after.
Spains HSR has tens of billions in hidden debts and lines that tin virtually empty……
https://www.railway-technology.com/analysis/spain-high-speed-railway/
”
kx1781, if you want to be like the Antiplanner, you never look at trips, only miles traveled.
” !janehavisham
The issue is very clear —> When comparing things you should compare like things.
We should be comparing like things.
That you’re bending over backwards indicates in your gutt you know it ain’t going to look good.
What happened to transit is no mystery… they got greedy……. unlike companies who satiated their greed thru specific products or services… transit is, was a government body. Thus sustained its greed by demanding others pay for a “essential service” what the pandemic revealed was how un essential it truly was.
New York is the only major US city where trains cannot be easily or effectively replaced.
Cities like Philly, Boston and Chicago rail would be difficult…but not impossible.
Almost every other US city transit carries less than 5 percent of all commuters and passengers.
My idea…simple. run buses that resemble trains….. I said it before transit is an image/aesthetician issue…
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/tour-bus-like-small-train-10458373.jpg