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Miami Having Wrong Debate over Bus vs. Rail

By | | Transportation
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On July 19, Miami-Dade’s transportation planning organization will decide whether to spend $300 million on bus-rapid transit or $1.5 billion on rail. As noted by the Antiplanner a year ago, this continues a debate that has been going on for years.

It’s a stupid debate because buses can move far more people for far less money. It’s even stupider because the $300 million bus-rapid transit plan is also a waste of money as Miami can’t generate enough transit traffic to effectively use dedicated bus lanes. The heart of the debate has nothing to do with transportation and everything to do with politicians’ egos.

“People in the south understand that if they settle for a bus, they’ll never get a rail,” said one politician. “Nobody wants buses.” Let me give you a clue: nobody except contractors and politicians really wants rail either. More than 90 percent of Miami-Dade commuters drive to work and less than 6 percent take transit (less than 1 percent of which uses existing rail). Continue reading →

Transit: It’s for High-Income People Now

By | | Transportation
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Remember when transit agencies guilt-tripped voters into supporting transit because it helped poor people who couldn’t afford their own cars? Nearly all poor people today have cars, so the number of low-income people who take transit to work is declining. Meanwhile, the fastest growth in transit commuting by far has been among people who earn more than $75,000 a year.

The Census Bureau divides workers into eight income classes. I don’t know how they decided on the division points, but in 2010, five of those classes had about 20 million people, while the $10,000 to $15,000 per year class had about 11 million and the $50,000 to $65,000 plus $65,000 to $75,000 together had about 20 million. The above chart, which is from table B08119 of the 2016 American Community Survey, shows that the income class most likely to take transit was the over $75,000 per year category. This was also true in 2010. Continue reading →

Charlotte’s Transit Disaster

By | | Transportation
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Ridership on Charlotte’s new $1.1 billion (actually closer to $1.2 billion) light-rail line is well below expectations. But that’s okay, says the Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS), because they expected it to be below expectations.

The line was projected to carry an average of 18,900 weekday trips in its opening year. When combined with the existing light-rail line, which carried about 15,750 weekday trips in 2016, the total should have been more than 33,500. In fact, it carried just 24,544 weekday trips in May, two months after its March opening.

According to CATS, the shortfall is entirely due to the University of North Carolina at Charlotte ending its Spring semester. “You go from a 28,000- or 29,000-student campus down to 4,000,” said CATS spokesman Olaf Kinard. “For us to have over 24,500 riders [in May] — that’s strong.” Students get free transit passes, so CATS is essentially depending on free riders to justify its expenditure of more than a billion dollars. Continue reading →

Europe’s High-Speed Rail Not Sustainable

By | | Transportation
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France opened two new high-speed rail lines last year, but they may be the last for awhile because the country is running out of cash to pay for them. A recent review by the European Court of Auditors seems to question whether any more high-speed rail lines should be built anywhere in Europe.

The audit reviewed 30 high-speed rail lines and found:

  • Construction costs averaged 25 million euros per kilometer (about $46 million per mile);
  • Much of this money was wasted because trains run at an average of just 45 percent of the design speed of the lines;
  • Cost overruns and delays are the norm rather than the exception: overruns averaged 78 percent and several lines have been delayed by more than a decade;
  • Benefits in many cases are negligible: many of the lines cost more than 100 million euros ($116 million) per minute of train time saved.

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The auditors cite an academic study that concluded that high-speed rail was a “success” if it carried 6 million passengers its first year rising soon to 9 million passengers. But this study wasn’t based on the profitability of the lines; instead, nearly all of the benefits it calculated went to business travelers who saved time by riding the trains. The study assumed that time to those travelers was worth 40 euros ($46 dollars) per hour. But if it is really worth that much, why aren’t the trains priced that high? Continue reading →

VTA’s Transit-Superiority Complex

By | | Transportation
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San Jose light-rail ridership is declining, so the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) wants to speed up light-rail trains to make them more attractive to riders. To do this, the agency wants to give light rail the priority over cars, bicycles, and pedestrians at all intersections.

Having to “slow down to avoid hitting somebody that may be crossing the tracks,” says a VTA board member, “slows [the light-rail trains] down quite a bit.” Light-rail trains in downtown San Jose are “possibly some of the slowest in the country,” says a news report. “People are beating transit on their e-scooters,” frets San Jose’s mayor, who also happens to chair VTA’s board. “We’ve got to speed up the light rail trains, so that way, folks will be motivated to use them.”

San Jose light rail is far from the slowest in the country. According to the National Transit Database, it averaged 15.9 miles per hour in 2016, slightly better than the national average of 15.3. While they (along with all other light-rail lines) are slower in downtown, it’s the average speed that counts for attracting riders. Continue reading →

Brightline Prospects May Not Be So Bright

By | | Transportation
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The last time we looked at Brightline, Florida’s private moderate-speed rail line from Miami to West Palm Beach, it had killed three people before even opening for business. Since then it has killed five more. While you might think that people will learn not to cross the tracks in front of fast passenger trains, it turns out that freight trains on the Florida East Coast Railway (which owns Brightline) have consistently killed about two people per month for the last several years.

This helps explain why some Florida residents are vehemently opposed to Brightline’s plans to extend service to Orlando. So far, opponents have been unable to stop the train in the courts.

They appear to be doing better, however, in the court of financial opinion. Brightline hoped to fund the extension to Orlando (which will require the construction of new tracks between Cocoa and Orlando) with $1.15 billion worth of tax-exempt private activity bonds. The tax exemption would allow Brightline to pay lower interest rates. But Brightline was unable to convince investors to buy the bonds by its deadline of May 31. The U.S. Department of Transportation generously extended the deadline to the end of the year, but Brightline still has to find buyers. Continue reading →

Amtrak’s Real Problem

By | | Transportation
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Amtrak’s dream of restoring passenger service between New Orleans and Jacksonville — service disrupted by Hurricane Katrina — died, at least for the foreseeable future, when the governors of Alabama and Mississippi refused to provide funds to subsidize this train. Meanwhile, Amtrak CEO Richard Anderson incurred the wrath of his predecessors last week when he tried to explain to state legislators why Amtrak should end the Southwest Chief service between Newton, Kansas and Gallup, New Mexico.

“This is the first time that a management team has ever come out against continuing services Amtrak currently provides,” worried former Amtrak president David Gunn, as reported by Trains magazine (paywall). “It’s dishonorable and dishonest,” chided Joseph Boardman, another former Amtrak president.

Actually, Anderson was being perfectly honest. His presentation noted that only about 175 people a day ride that segment of the Chicago-Los Angeles train, which gets most of its ridership in the Chicago-Kansas City segment followed by the segment between Los Angeles and Albuquerque. Because BNSF, which owns the tracks, no longer runs freight trains on this route, it is the only private rail route in the country that sees only Amtrak trains, making all capital and maintenance costs the sole responsibility of Amtrak. Continue reading →

The Raleigh Transit Miracle

By | | Transportation
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While transit ridership declined in April 2018 vs. 2017 in the vast majority of urban areas, it grew in Raleigh. Not only did it grow there, it grew by a miraculous 20 percent, more than any other of the nation’s fifty largest urban areas. The first four months of 2018 saw a more modest but still trend-bucking 9 percent growth over the same months in 2017.

What is responsible for this rapid growth? According to the TransitCenter, it resulted from a boost to transit service that came after voters approved a half-cent sales tax for transit in November, 2016. This was a sales tax increase that opponents called a “transit plan to nowhere.”

FTA data show that GoRaleigh, Raleigh’s main transit agency, offered 10.0 percent more bus service in April 2018 than 2017, and carried 26.5 percent more riders. Bus service for the first four months of 2018 was 6.8 percent greater, and riders 11.7 percent more numerous, than in 2017. So it seems plausible that service increases are responsible for the growth in ridership. Continue reading →

A SORTA Dilemma

By | | Transportation
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Cincinnati’s transit agency, the Southwest Ohio Regional Transit Authority (SORTA), is facing a dilemma common to many other transit agencies. Transit ridership is dropping, and fare revenue is dropping even more. Should it raise fares, which will accelerate ridership declines, or ask voters to approve more taxes to cover a $6.4 million budget deficit in order to maintain transit service?

SORTA’s problems have been worsened by the city’s decision to build an idiotic streetcar line. The city claimed the streetcar was built under budget, but that’s a distortion of reality. It was supposed to cost $110 million for 4.5 miles and ended up costing $148 million for 3.6 miles. Of course, the last approved budget before completion was $149.5 million, but it still cost far more than was projected when the city decided to build the line.

In any case, that’s $148 million that could have been used to ease SORTA’s budgetary woes today. On top of that, operating the streetcar costs SORTA more than $2 million a year, and fares cover only 14 percent of that. Counting some capital costs, the streetcar added $2 million to SORTA’s expenses in 2016, and probably even more in 2017. In short, the operating expense plus 10 percent of the cost overrun for the streetcar would have been enough to make up SORTA’s projected deficit. Continue reading →

Are the Koch Brothers Killing Transit?

By | | Transportation
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Transit supporters have a new explanation for transit’s decline: the Koch brothers are killing new transit projects. At least, that’s what the New York Times says, and since that is the nation’s newspaper of record, it must be true.

According to the article published yesterday, Americans for Prosperity have combined with the Cato Institute to fight light rail all over the country. Since both of these groups were initially funded by the Koch brothers, it must be some sort of conspiracy.

Speaking for myself, I don’t mind being associated with the Koch brothers. After all, they support gay marriage, marijuana legalization, and ending Middle East military interventions. They oppose tax-increment financing, the use of eminent domain to take private property to give to other private developers, and NSA surveillance of American citizens. What’s not to love? Continue reading →