When I let associates know that I was projecting that transit ridership after the pandemic would be 25 to 35 percent lower than before, some of them suggested I was overestimating. Now Reuters reports that in China, “transit ridership in large cities remains down about 35% two months after lockdown restrictions were lifted.” At the same time, auto sales there have sharply increased.
Reuters also frets that a shift from transit to cars will lead to more congestion. In fact, in most cities not enough people ride transit to make a different in traffic congestion. Where there is a difference, I suspect there will be less congestion, not more, because the real switch will not be from transit to driving but from transit and driving to working at home.
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Transit agencies, of course, want people to feel like they can safely ride the obsolete transportation they are offering. New York’s MTA alone says it will cost $500 million more a year to keep everything from ticket machines to transit seats disinfected. That’s just one more reason to rethink whether we really need transit all that much.
