New Starts 2017

The Federal Transit Administration has published its New Starts recommendations for 2017. The recommendations include profiles of more than 60 different transit projects, including bus-rapid transit (BR), streetcars (SR), light rail (LR), commuter rail (CR), and heavy rail (HR). Only 60 projects are shown in the table below as a few, such as the San Antonio streetcar, have been cancelled or at least are “on hold.”

City	Project	Mode	Miles	Capital	Cost/mi
Phoenix	S. Central	LR	5.0	531	106
Tempe	Streetcar	SR	3.0	183	61
LA	Connector	LR	1.9	1,403	738
LA	Streetcar	SR	3.8	75	20
LA	Purple 1	HR	3.9	2,822	720
LA	Purple 2	HR	2.6	2,467	949
Sac'to	Streetcar	SR	4.2	150	36
CalTrans	Electrified	CRC	51.0	1,759	34
San Diego	Mid-Coast	LR	10.9	2,171	199
San Fran.	Central	LR	1.7	1,578	928
San Fran.	Van Ness	BR	2.0	163	81
San Jose	El Camino	BR	17.4	188	11
San Jose	Berryessa	HR	10.2	2,330	230
San Rafael	SMART	CR	2.1	43	20
Santa Ana	Streetcar	SR	4.1	289	70
Denver	Eagle	CR	30.2	2,043	68
Denver	SE Ext	LR	2.3	224	97
Ft. Laud.	Wave	SR	2.8	173	62
Ft. Laud.	Broward	SR	5.0		0
J'ville	East	BR	18.5	34	2
J'ville	SW	BR	12.9	19	1
Orlando	OIA	CR	5.5	225	41
Orlando	South	CR	17.2	187	11
Orlando	North	CR	12.2	69	6
Honolulu	HART	HR	20.0	5,122	256
Chicago	Ashland	BR	5.4	117	22
Chicago	Red & Purple	HRC	5.6	957	171
Indy.	Red	BR	13.1	96	7
Boston	Medford	LR	4.7	2,298	489
Maryland	Purple	LR	16.2	2,448	151
Gr. Rapids	Laker	BR	13.3	71	5
Lansing	Michigan	BR	8.5	164	19
Minn.	Blue ext	LR	13.0	1	0
Minn.	Orange	BR	17.0	151	9
Minn.	SW	LR	14.5	1,774	122
K. City	Prospect	BR	10.0	54	5
Charlotte	Blue ext	LR	9.3	1,160	125
Charlotte	Gold	SR	2.5	150	60
Charlotte	Blue	HRC	9.6	40	4
Durham	Orange	LR	17.1	1,800	105
Albuq.	Rapid	BR	8.8	126	14
Reno	4th St	BR	3.1	53	17
Reno	Virginia	BR	1.8	60	33
Albany	River	BR	15.0	35	2
Albany	Washington	BR	8.0	64	8
NYC	Carnarsie	HRC	6.0	274	46
NYC	Woodhaven	BR	14.0	231	17
Columbus	Cleveland	BR	15.6	47	3
Portland	Milwaukie	LR	7.0	1,490	213
Portland	Powell	BR	14.0	75	5
Dallas	CBD	LR	2.4	650	271
Dallas	Red & Blue	LRC	48.1	119	2
El Paso	Montana	BR	16.8	47	3
Ft. Worth	TEXRail	CR	27.2	996	37
Houston	University	LR	11.3	1,563	138
Provo	BRT	BR	10.5	150	14
Everett	Swift	BR	12.3	67	5
Seattle	Center	SR	1.3	135	104
Spokane	Central	BR	5.8	72	12
Tacoma	Link ext	SR	2.4	166	69

A “C” after a mode abbreviation means that project is a capacity increase or reconstruction of an existing line. An “ext” at the end of a project name is an extension of an existing line. There are 60 projects in the table; to see all 60 at once, select “Show 100 entries.” Projects are sorted in alphabetical order by state, but you can resort by any column.

For the projects in this year’s report, the average cost of new streetcar lines is $45 million per mile; light rail is $163 million per mile; heavy rail is $347 million per mile; and commuter rail is $38 million per mile. Of course, cost overruns are likely for a majority of these projects, so the final costs are likely to average 20 to 50 percent more. Even without the overruns, these costs are outlandish, as the nation’s first light-rail lines cost only around $10 million to $25 million per mile (after adjusting for inflation), and streetcars were supposed to be even less expensive than that.

City	Project	Mode	Daily Riders	Cost/trip	Prius cost
Tempe	Streetcar	SR	1,700	10.79	20
LA	Connector	LR	88,200	3.10	2
LA	Purple 1	HR	33,700	16.80	11
LA	Purple 2	HR	36,100	13.42	11
Sac'to	Streetcar	SR	7,600	4.26	4
San Diego	Mid-Coast	LR	31,900	11.90	10
San Fran.	Central	LR	35,100	8.60	7
San Jose	Berryessa	HR	46,000	12.85	6
San Rafael	SMART	CR	800	9.22	7
Denver	Eagle	CR	57,500	12.70	9
Denver	SE Ext	LR	6,600	7.83	6
Ft. Laud.	Wave	SR	1,800	15.35	19
Orlando	South	CR	4,300	26.45	21
Orlando	North	CR	600	53.06	41
Honolulu	HART	HR	116,000	11.06	6
Indy	Red	BR	11,000	3.41	3
Boston	Medford	LR	44,800	11.46	9
Maryland	Purple	LR	56,100	8.62	8
Gr. Rapids	Laker	BR	4,400	2.43	5
Minn.	SW	LR	31,300	10.67	9
Charlotte	Blue ext	LR	24,600	10.66	6
Charlotte	Gold	SR	5,700	6.97	5
Reno	4th St	BR	7,700	1.46	1
Columbus	Cleveland	BR	6,800	2.55	2
Ft. Worth	TEXRail	CR	13,700	15.64	12
Houston	University	LR	49,000	8.07	5
Everett	Swift	BR	4,700	6.48	5
Seattle	Center	SR	20,100	1.88	1
Tacoma	Link ext	SR	8,600	6.26	4

Cost per trip includes capital costs amortized over 30 years at 3 percent interest plus operating costs divided by the projected annual riders in 2030 or 2035. The “Prius cost” shows how often, in years, we could give each weekday round-trip rider a new Toyota Priuses (at $24,000 per car) if the project wasn’t built; for example, “3.0” means a new Prius every three years.
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Ridership projections are only available for about 29 projects that are well advanced in the planning process. Based on this ridership data, most rail projects will cost well over $10 per rider while most bus projects will cost less than $5 per rider. Of course, projections are usually high, so the actual costs will be more.

The Federal Transit Administration is no longer interested in the cost-effectiveness of projects, so it rarely bothers to publish how many projected riders will be “new” transit riders. In most cases, at least half of all riders would have taken transit even without the project, so the cost of getting someone out of their car and onto transit would be more than double the cost per rider shown here. In the case of the L.A. Regional Connector and San Francisco Central Subway light-rail projects, almost all of the riders would have taken transit anyway, so the cost per new rider will be many times higher than the cost per average rider.

I like to calculate how often taxpayers could give a new Prius to every daily round-trip transit rider for these projects. For example, the Orlando South commuter-rail project is so expensive and will carry so few riders that we could give every daily round-trip rider a new Prius every 18 months. The extension of the existing North commuter-rail line is even worse: we could give every rider a new Prius every nine months and still save money. Of course, this statistic is most meaningful for commuter-rail lines and other lines used mainly by commuters as opposed to shoppers, event patrons, and so on.

Given that cost-effectiveness is no longer relevant to the FTA, the agency seems to be using the “Field of Dreams” criteria for handing out money: if you apply for it, they will fund it. To any reasonable person, the idea that taxpayers should spend nearly $70 million, plus more than $6 million in annual operating costs, so that 300 people could commute on the North extension of Orlando’s commuter train, for example, seems absurd. Yet the FTA proudly includes this project in its list of recommendations. I’m sure the fact that the line serves the district of one of top-ranking members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has nothing to do with it.